Ermenegildo Zegna Group (ZGN) Q3 2026 earnings review
Zegna grows everywhere, but its Thom Browne brand shrinks
The Zegna brand is carrying the Italian luxury group that owns it, while its Thom Browne label sells less. Revenue rose 9% to €434 million, and every region grew, including Greater China after a bad 2025. Executive chairman Ermenegildo "Gildo" Zegna said the Zegna brand "led the way in all regions", with sales in its own shops up 16% excluding currency.
| Revenue | €433.8M +8.9% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Sales growth excluding currency and acquisitions | +8.2% +11.0% in the second quarter |
| Zegna brand sales in its own stores, excluding currency | +16.4% +18.4% in the second quarter |
| Outlook | None given 2027 targets last confirmed in March |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because growth now comes from every region and from the group's own shops, not from one market. One caution: growth slowed from the second quarter, with sales excluding currency up 8% against 11% three months earlier, and the company gave no update on its 2027 targets.
The question now is whether the slowdown from the second quarter is the harder comparison the chairman cited or softer demand. If it is the comparison, fourth-quarter growth holds near this quarter's pace. If demand is softening, growth falls further and the 2027 revenue target needs a much stronger next year. Full-year revenue on February 1, 2027 will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Zegna Brand Stores Grow Fast in Every Region
The Zegna brand is the group's main business, about two thirds of sales, and it sells mostly through its own shops rather than department stores. Executive chairman Ermenegildo "Gildo" Zegna said the brand "led the way in all regions" this quarter.
Sales in the brand's own shops rose 16.4% from a year ago excluding currency. The brand did that with fewer of them, because it closed four stores on a net basis during the quarter. So the growth came from selling more per store, with the Americas leading and the Middle East back to double-digit growth, Gildo Zegna said.
- Zegna brand revenue: €283.8 million, up 13.8% from a year ago
- Own-store sales as a share of the brand: 88%, from 84% a year ago
- Directly operated stores: 275, seven fewer than a year ago
What to watch: the brand's own-store growth in the fourth quarter, due with full-year revenue on February 1, 2027. A rate still above 10% would mean customers keep coming to the brand even as the group's other markets soften.
Greater China Sales Grow Again After 2025 Decline
Greater China was the group's weakest region last year, when sales there fell about 15%. This quarter revenue in the region rose 8.7% to €84.1 million, and the Zegna brand's own shops drove the increase, the company said, while Thom Browne sold less there.
One caution: currency did part of the work, because growth excluding exchange rates was 5.7%, down from 8.6% in the second quarter. Gildo Zegna said the brand held up "notwithstanding the slowdown in the industry in this area", so it is doing better than the market around it.
What to watch: Greater China growth excluding currency in the fourth quarter, on February 1, 2027. A rate near 5% again would mean the region is a steady contributor rather than a single good quarter.
Tom Ford Fashion Grows in Both Channels
Tom Ford Fashion, the group's second-largest brand, showed its Spring Summer 2027 collection during the quarter. Its revenue rose 5.4% to €69.6 million, with both its own shops and wholesale customers buying more. Wholesale orders rose 8.9% excluding currency, which the company put down to "the good reception of Fall Winter collections".
The caution is its own shops, where growth excluding currency slowed to 4.2% from 13.1% in the second quarter. The brand lost €12.1 million before interest and tax in the first half, excluding one-offs, so it needs faster growth in those shops to reach profit.
What to watch: Tom Ford Fashion's full-year operating result on March 15, 2027. A loss smaller than 2025's €15.5 million would mean the new collections cover more of the brand's store costs.
🐻 Bear Case
Thom Browne Sales Fall in Its Own Stores
Thom Browne is the group's American tailoring brand. For two years the group has cut the brand's wholesale business on purpose, to sell more through its own shops, and Zegna Group again blamed "the ongoing streamlining of the wholesale channel" for part of this quarter's decline. But the channel the group chose is now the problem too.
Sales in Thom Browne's own shops fell from a year ago excluding currency, after growing in the first two quarters. The brand suffered "a slowdown in demand in some key regions, including the GCR", the group said, yet in the same quarter it opened a shop at Shanghai Plaza 66.
- Brand revenue: €45.4 million, down 7.4% excluding currency
- Own-store sales: down 6.6%, after +20.2% and +16.0% in the first two quarters
- First-half operating result, excluding one-offs: a €8.3 million loss, against a €4.5 million profit a year earlier
What to watch: Thom Browne's own-store sales in the fourth quarter, on February 1, 2027. A second decline would mean the brand's problem is demand for its clothes rather than the planned exit from wholesale, and the first-half loss would grow with 129 shops to pay for.
Growth Slowed From the Second Quarter
The group grew 8.2% excluding currency and acquisitions, down from 11.0% in the second quarter. The slowdown ran through almost every brand and region, and Gildo Zegna pointed to "an increasingly demanding comparison base" in the Americas. Zegna Group also named weaker demand in Korea, Japan and Greater China, so not all of it is the comparison. By our math, only Europe, the Middle East and Africa grew faster than three months earlier.
- Americas, excluding currency: 21.8% to 13.6%
- Asia outside China, mainly Japan and Korea: 19.3% to 5.0%
- Europe, Middle East and Africa: 1.6% to 6.3%
What to watch: fourth-quarter growth excluding currency, on February 1, 2027. A rate below this quarter's would mean weaker demand rather than a hard comparison, and the 2027 revenue target of €2.2–2.4 billion would need a much stronger year.
👓 Other Themes
Chairman Sees an Uncertain Global Market
Gildo Zegna said the group looks ahead "with cautious confidence" because "the global environment remains uncertain". The release names weaker demand in Greater China, Korea and Japan, and a comparison in the Americas that gets harder each quarter. Currency helped for the first time this year: exchange rates added 0.7 percentage points to reported growth after subtracting 4.9 points in the first quarter.
💲 Other KPIs
Fell 5.2% from a year ago, the smallest decline this year after 19.1% in the first quarter, as the planned exit from department stores runs its course. Wholesale is now 16% of branded sales, from 18% a year ago. The Zegna brand cut wholesale by 9.8% to "preserve exclusivity and reduce its exposure to this channel", while Tom Ford Fashion's wholesale rose 7.2%.
Down from 670 a year ago, with all of the reduction in monobrand stores run by wholesale partners, which fell to 179 from 198. Directly operated stores held at 471: Thom Browne added shops while the Zegna brand closed some. The group is shrinking the shops it does not control and keeping the ones it does.
Rose 7.5% from December, against first-half revenue growth of 6.4%, so stock grew slightly faster than sales. This quarter's release carries no balance sheet; the next reading arrives with full-year results on March 15, 2027. Trade receivables fell to €192.3 million from €227.1 million over the same six months.
❓ Key Questions
Are the 2027 revenue and profit targets still on track?
The group last reconfirmed its €2.2–2.4 billion revenue and €250–300 million operating profit targets in March; this release does not mention them. By our math, 2027 needs 7–12% growth after a 7% 2026 to reach the bottom or middle of the range.
How much of own-store growth came from price?
The Zegna brand grew own-store sales 16.4% excluding currency with fewer shops. The release gives no split between price increases, more customers and higher spend per visit, which decides how durable the growth is.
What is Thom Browne's plan for Greater China?
The brand opened a shop at Shanghai Plaza 66 in the same quarter its own-store sales there fell. Investors need to know whether more openings are planned or the network will be reviewed.
Did Saks Global's bankruptcy hurt Americas wholesale?
Zegna brand wholesale fell in the Americas this quarter. The group took a €10 million provision on Saks Global in 2025 and resumed shipments in the first quarter; the release does not say whether orders have recovered.
When does the Parma shoe plant start production?
In September the group said the new footwear plant in Parma would be operational by year end. The release gives no update, and the plant's start affects capital spending and in-house margins next year.