XP Inc. (XP) Q1 2026 earnings review
Wholesale Rescues the Quarter as Core Retail Core Metrics Crack
XP delivered a seemingly stable quarter with Gross Revenue up 8% YoY to R$4.9B and Adjusted Net Income up 7% to R$1.3B. However, beneath the headline numbers, the quality of the revenue mix is shifting dramatically. Retail Fixed Income—the primary growth engine a year ago—collapsed 25% YoY. The quarter was entirely salvaged by a 78% YoY explosion in Corporate revenue and a 43% surge in 'Other Retail' (float and new verticals). More concerningly, client inflows decelerated sharply to R$14B (down 39% YoY), and the Net Promoter Score (NPS) plunged to an alarming 61, contradicting management's prior claims of a client satisfaction recovery. While the balance sheet remains fortress-like, allowing for a new R$1B buyback, the core investment platform is showing serious cracks.
🐂 Bull Case
Wholesale banking continues to defy gravity, driven by a 78% YoY jump in Corporate revenues (R$498M). XP's ability to cross-sell hedging, FX, and derivatives to corporate clients is successfully insulating the top line from retail volatility.
After multiple quarters of stagnation, Equities revenue reversed its trend, accelerating 22% YoY to R$1.16B. High trading activity (Retail DATs up 23%) proves the platform's core trading DNA remains intact.
🐻 Bear Case
Total Net Inflow plummeted 39% YoY to just R$14B. Simultaneously, NPS collapsed to 61. If XP is losing its premium brand appeal, attracting high-net-worth capital will become significantly harder.
Fixed income revenue reversed sharply, falling 25% YoY. The continued mix shift toward high-liquidity, low-duration instruments is squeezing the retail take rate, which fell 7 bps YoY to 1.18%.
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪
Neutral. Strong corporate execution and aggressive capital returns (buybacks) are masking underlying rot in the retail platform's inflow and client satisfaction metrics. Execution on the 'Third Wave' wealth strategy is proving harder than anticipated.
Key Themes
NPS Collapse Contradicts Recovery Narrative
A massive red flag: NPS crashed to 61 in 26Q1. During the 25Q4 earnings call, CEO Thiago Maffra explicitly blamed a temporary dip to 65 on negative media surrounding Banco Master and Ambipar, stating NPS was 'already recovering.' The 26Q1 data completely contradicts this narrative. A drop from 74 just two quarters ago to 61 suggests structural dissatisfaction, likely tied to aggressive product pushing or the ongoing shift to fee-based models.
Fixed Income Reverses from Driver to Drag
Reversing. Exactly one year ago, Fixed Income was XP's star, growing 45% YoY and surpassing Equities. In 26Q1, it collapsed 25% YoY to R$756M. The macro environment is to blame: high SELIC rates are forcing clients into low-margin, high-liquidity fixed-income instruments. XP is gathering assets (Total Client Assets +15%), but it cannot monetize them at historical rates.
Corporate Segment Saves the Top Line
Accelerating. Corporate revenue skyrocketed 78% YoY to R$498M. As the macro environment remains volatile, XP is successfully capitalizing on corporate demand for derivatives, FX, and trading solutions. Wholesale banking as a whole grew 26% YoY, proving that XP's ecosystem diversification strategy is functioning effectively as a hedge against retail weakness.
Other Retail: The Float and Floatation Device
Accelerating. 'Other Retail' revenue surged 43% YoY to R$834M. A significant portion of this is 'float'—interest earned on uninvested client cash balances, which is highly lucrative in a high-rate macro environment. The segment also includes rapidly scaling new verticals like global investments and digital accounts.
Net Inflow Deceleration Continues
Decelerating. Total Net Inflow fell 39% YoY to R$14B (down from R$24B in 25Q1). While Retail Net Inflow held relatively steady at R$19B, the total number was dragged down by B2B/institutional outflows. Management's long-term goal of BRL 20B/quarter in retail NNM is barely being met, highlighting the friction in converting bank CD assets into platform investments.
Other KPIs
Decelerating. Dropped 7 bps YoY and remains flat sequentially. The shift toward a holistic, fee-based 'Third Wave' advisory model structurally lowers headline take rates in exchange for higher share of wallet. However, with NNM slowing, the volume offset isn't materializing fast enough.
Stable. Up slightly from 34.1% a year ago, but sequentially worse than 25Q4's 34.2%. Compensation ratio ticked up 39 bps YoY to 23.2%. Management is keeping a lid on costs, but operating leverage is stalling as revenue growth normalizes to the high single digits.
Accelerating. XP is heavily overcapitalized. The BIS ratio expanded 169 bps YoY, far above the 16-19% target. This excess capital fully supports the aggressive return strategy: a new R$1B buyback program and R$500M in upcoming dividends.
Guidance
Management expects to drive the current 20.7% BIS ratio down to the 16-19% target range toward the end of 2026. This implies aggressive execution of the newly announced R$1B share repurchase program and R$500M dividend payout to drain excess capital.
Key Questions
The True Cause of NPS Collapse
NPS fell to 61 this quarter after you claimed in Q4 that the drop to 65 was a temporary reaction to media noise. What is structurally driving this dissatisfaction, and is the shift to fee-based models alienating your traditional trading base?
Fixed Income Floor
Fixed Income revenues collapsed 25% YoY despite a 15% increase in total client assets. If the SELIC rate remains elevated, how long will this mix shift into low-margin liquidity products persist before reaching a bottom?
Sustainability of Corporate Growth
Corporate revenues jumped 78% YoY, heavily lifting the quarter's results. How much of this was driven by episodic hedging or opportunistic trading around macro volatility, and what is the normalized growth rate for this segment?