Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Q3 2026 earnings review
Wynn Resorts refinances its 2027 debt, but casino profit falls
Wynn Resorts, the operator of luxury casinos in Las Vegas, Boston and Macau, posted lower sales and profit at all four of its resorts. Revenue fell 8% from a year ago to $1.69 billion, and profit per share excluding one-offs dropped from $0.86 to $0.33. Chief executive Craig Billings cited an unlucky table win rate in Las Vegas and a September worker strike in Boston, while keeping the September 2027 opening date for the new resort in the United Arab Emirates.
| Operating revenue | $1.69B -7.9% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Property profit (Adjusted Property EBITDAR) | $464.2M -18.6% from a year ago |
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $0.33 $0.86 a year ago (-62%) |
| UAE resort opening plan | Unchanged September 2027 ($1.12B invested to date) |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because customer betting volume fell in both Macau and Las Vegas just as Wynn Palace's record table win rate began to cool. Last quarter, a nearly 30% mass-market table win rate at Wynn Palace hid slowing volume; this quarter that win rate stepped down to 26% and mass table betting volume dropped 13%, pulling property profit down across the group. On the positive side, the company refinanced $900 million of 2027 Las Vegas debt out to 2035.
The question now is whether the third-quarter drop in Macau and Las Vegas table betting volume was a tough comparison against a strong prior summer or the start of a broader demand downturn. If customer volume was only lapping a hard comparison, fourth-quarter results will rebound against last year's weak fourth quarter; if players are pulling back, higher operating costs in Las Vegas and rising construction bills in Macau and the UAE will squeeze cash flow. Fourth-quarter mass table drop at Wynn Palace and Las Vegas will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Refinancing Pushed Out 2027 Debt and UAE Opening Held
Wynn Resorts entered the quarter with roughly $2.2 billion of debt coming due in 2027 while funding its new resort in the United Arab Emirates. Chief executive Craig Billings said the builder made progress on "the interior fit-out of all guest rooms, as we move closer to a planned September 2027 opening".
In September, the financing arm issued $900 million of notes due in 2035 at a 6.875% interest rate to pay off $900 million of Las Vegas notes due in 2027 that carried a 5.25% rate. The casino operator also sent $62.2 million in cash to the UAE joint venture, bringing its total cash investment to $1.12 billion.
The bond deal removes the largest domestic maturity before the UAE resort opens, though the higher interest rate adds about $15 million a year in borrowing costs by our math. The $62.2 million UAE payment ran at less than half the $114 million to $151 million quarterly pace implied by the original 2026 spending plan, leaving up to $202 million for the fourth quarter if that schedule holds.
What to watch: the remaining UAE equity commitment and the plan for the March 2027 Macau convertible bond put option in the third-quarter filing. An unchanged $525 million to $650 million remaining UAE budget would show construction costs have stabilised after last quarter's $600 million overrun.
Macau Slot Upgrades and Las Vegas Room Rates Held Up
Over the past year, the resort group has shifted floor space in China toward slot machines and everyday table players while relying on high room rates in Nevada to offset rising wages. Both efforts held up this quarter even as casino table revenue dropped.
- Wynn Macau slot machines: 936 units, up 15.7% from a year ago, lifting slot win 13.7% to $29.1 million
- Wynn Palace slot machines: 711 units, up 8.9% from a year ago, with total slot betting flat at $711.5 million
- Las Vegas average daily room rate (ADR): $522, up 3.4% from a year ago, lifting revenue per available room 3.2% to $447
- Macau hotel occupancy: 99.0% at Wynn Palace and 99.1% at Wynn Macau, both up from a year ago
Adding slot machines in Macau and raising room prices in Las Vegas gives the group steadier revenue streams when table luck turns against the house. The press release did not include capital spending tables for the new Wynn Palace theatre, event centre and Enclave hotel tower, which await the quarterly filing.
What to watch: Macau project capital spending in the third-quarter filing, which by our math needed to reach $240 million to $295 million in the second half to meet the $350 million to $400 million full-year plan. On-schedule spending would confirm physical work has started on the new Macau attractions.
🐻 Bear Case
Wynn Palace Mass Table Win Cooled From Record Highs
Wynn Palace in Macau has been the group's main profit growth engine in 2026. "Our third quarter results demonstrated strong operational discipline from the teams in each of our regions," Billings said, adding that Macau saw "healthy demand amid slower market conditions".
The numbers at Wynn Palace show that last quarter's surge came from an unusually high casino win rate rather than growing customer volume. In the third quarter, the share of money the casino kept at everyday mass-market tables (the win percentage) fell from a record 29.7% in the second quarter to 25.8%. At the same time, mass table drop — the cash and chips players put down to bet — fell 12.9% from a year ago to $1.79 billion, even though the resort ran 15.8% more mass tables.
Because the win rate cooled and betting volume shrank, Wynn Palace mass table win dropped by $100.6 million from last quarter to $462.7 million by our math. Property profit — Adjusted Property EBITDAR, which measures resort earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, rent and corporate overhead — fell 17.2% from a year ago to $165.8 million, even though the 25.8% mass win rate remained well above last year's 22.6%.
What to watch: fourth-quarter Wynn Palace mass table drop and win percentage against an easier prior-year comparison of 21.8% hold. A second quarter of falling drop alongside a win rate returning toward 23% would cut quarterly property profit by another $40 million or more.
Las Vegas Profit Dropped on Low Hold and Betting Volume
Las Vegas Operations had already faced rising daily payroll and operating costs in the first half of the year. This quarter, Billings said the Nevada resort was "negatively impacted by a hold rate outside of our expected range".
- Las Vegas table games win percentage: 18.9%, below the 22% to 26% expected range and 23.0% a year ago
- Table drop (betting volume): $592.9 million, down 9.1% from a year ago despite 5.6% more tables
- Slot machine handle (betting volume): $1.78 billion, down 2.2% from a year ago, with slot win down 3.6%
- Las Vegas property profit (Adjusted Property EBITDAR): $158.8 million, down 21.9% from a year ago, with the margin down 5.1 percentage points to 27.6% by our math
Unlucky table results do not explain the whole drop. By our math, holding at the 24% middle of the expected range on this quarter's $592.9 million table drop would have added about $30.2 million in gross table win before discounts, leaving table win down 5.2% from a year ago because customer betting volume fell 9.1%. With daily operating expenses elevated and Encore Tower room renovations ongoing, lower casino volume hit margins directly.
What to watch: Las Vegas daily operating expenses on the conference call and fourth-quarter table drop. If daily costs stay near the top of the $4.4 million to $4.7 million target while table drop shrinks, Las Vegas margins will remain below last year's levels even when table luck returns to normal.
Macau High-Roller Betting Volume Keeps Shrinking
Wynn has steadily reduced the number of tables dedicated to high-roller VIP gamblers in Macau while shifting staff and credit toward premium-mass players. That VIP contraction continued across both Chinese properties in the third quarter, while company-wide provisions for unpaid gambling markers doubled.
- Wynn Macau VIP turnover (high-roller chip volume): $470.4 million, down 53.9% from a year ago as VIP tables fell from 17 to 11
- Wynn Palace VIP turnover: $2.79 billion, down 14.3% from a year ago as VIP tables fell from 52 to 48
- VIP win rate as a share of turnover: 4.88% at Wynn Macau and 3.82% at Wynn Palace, both above the 3.1% to 3.4% expected range
- Consolidated provision for credit losses: $9.0 million in the quarter, double the $4.5 million recorded a year ago
High win rates above the expected range cushioned the revenue blow at Wynn Macau this quarter, but underlying VIP betting volume has now fallen by more than half over the past nine months. Meanwhile, the doubling of credit-loss provisions to $20.0 million over the first nine months shows that collecting casino markers is getting harder.
What to watch: the casino credit-loss allowance ratio in Note 4 of the third-quarter filing, which stood at 18.9% of gross casino receivables in June. A higher ratio would show credit quality is worsening even as VIP volume shrinks.
A September Strike Cut Boston Profit and Room Occupancy
Encore Boston Harbor has posted lower property profit all year on softer regional gaming revenue. In the third quarter, Billings praised the local team for "managing through the strike that began in early September" while keeping the resort open.
Operating revenue at the Massachusetts resort fell 8.1% from a year ago to $194.7 million, and property profit fell 14.1% to $50.1 million. The labour disruption hit non-casino operations hardest: food and beverage revenue dropped 17.3% to $15.6 million, room revenue fell 8.8%, and hotel occupancy slid from 95.5% a year ago to 91.9%. Slot machine betting volume also fell 7.2% as the resort ran 3.6% fewer slot units.
What to watch: the terms of any Boston labour settlement and fourth-quarter property profit margin. If higher union wages lock in after the strike, Boston's profit decline will persist even after hotel occupancy recovers.
💲 Other KPIs
Operating profit fell 42.6% from a year ago, and the operating margin dropped 6.4 percentage points from 16.9% by our math. As revenue fell 7.9%, fixed costs took a bigger bite: depreciation rose 1.5 percentage points of revenue to 9.9%, casino expenses rose 1.5 points to 39.9%, overhead rose 1.4 points to 16.4%, and property charges rose 1.0 point.
Net debt rose by about $314 million from last quarter by our math, as total debt held steady at $10.73 billion while total cash and Wynn Macau short-term investments fell from $2.10 billion to $1.79 billion. The group holds $2.38 billion in undrawn credit lines alongside its cash to fund upcoming construction in Macau and the UAE.
The company bought back 627,475 shares at an average price of $92.61, spending 22.5% less than the $75.0 million deployed in the second quarter. Diluted share count fell 1.3% from a year ago, and $268.0 million remains under the repurchase programme alongside the unchanged $0.25 quarterly dividend.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The casino operator kept its expected table hold range at 22% to 26%, against an actual third-quarter reading of 18.9%. Across the last five quarters, Las Vegas table hold has landed above the 24% middle of the range twice and below it three times, averaging 23.4%.
Unchanged. Both Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau maintain an expected high-roller win rate of 3.1% to 3.4% of chip turnover. Actual third-quarter win rates beat the top of that range at both resorts — 3.82% at Wynn Palace and 4.88% at Wynn Macau — so normal luck in the fourth quarter will lower VIP win per dollar bet.
Unchanged. The Massachusetts property expects to win 18% to 22% of table drop, and third-quarter hold of 18.9% stayed inside that band for a fifth straight quarter.
Unchanged. The company kept its target opening date for the 40%-owned UAE resort at September 2027 after delaying it last quarter from early 2027. Life-to-date cash contributions reached $1.12 billion after $62.2 million of third-quarter funding.
Unchanged. The board declared a $0.25 quarterly cash dividend payable on November 30, keeping the payout steady across every quarter of the past two years.
❓ Key Questions
Why did Wynn Palace mass betting volume drop 13%?
Mass table drop at Wynn Palace fell 12.9% from a year ago despite 15.8% more mass tables on the floor. Investors need to know how much came from softer Chinese tourism versus competitor promotions.
Did the $525–650M remaining UAE equity budget hold?
The earnings release gave third-quarter UAE cash funding of $62.2 million but not the updated remaining equity commitment or capital spending tables, which sit in the quarterly filing.
How much did the September strike cost Boston in dollars?
Encore Boston Harbor profit fell $8.3 million from a year ago during the September strike. Management has not separated the one-time strike costs from the ongoing cost of any new labour contract.
What drove the doubling in credit-loss provisions?
The provision for unpaid casino markers doubled to $9.0 million in the quarter and $20.0 million year to date, even as high-roller VIP volume shrank in Macau.
How are US advance room deposits and chip liabilities trending?
Last quarter, advance room deposits were up 25% from a year ago while casino front-money deposits fell. The third-quarter filing's contract liability note will show if Las Vegas group bookings remain strong.