Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) Q3 2026 earnings review
Wheaton's silver output jumps, but its gold production falls 8%
Wheaton Precious Metals, which funds miners upfront in exchange for cheap future metal, leaned on silver while gold output fell. Total production rose 13% from a year ago, but by our math grew just 2% without the extra share of Antamina silver bought in April. Revenue jumped 62% from last year on higher metal prices, yet dropped 17% from the second quarter as silver prices pulled back.
| Metal produced, excluding new Antamina share | +2.4% headline production: +13.3% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $771.7M +62% from a year ago, -17% from last quarter |
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $0.90 +46% from a year ago |
| 2026 production outlook | Unchanged 860,000–940,000 gold-equivalent ounces |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The standing story is unchanged because strong silver output and ahead-of-schedule mine startups offset a drop in gold production. Chief executive Haytham Hodaly kept the full-year outlook steady as the Koné and Kurmuk projects began producing gold and operating cash flow cut net debt by $417 million. The bad news: strikes and depleted pits pushed gold output down 8%, so by our math fourth-quarter gold must jump 48% from the third quarter to hit the middle of the gold plan.
The question now is whether Wheaton meets its full-year target through a fourth-quarter gold rebound or by letting extra silver cover a gold miss. Bulls point to Salobo's recovery and new gold from Koné and Kurmuk, while bears note Constancia's high-grade gold pit is gone and San Dimas entered a strike in September. Fourth-quarter production results in February will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
New Mines Reached Production Ahead of Schedule
Wheaton Precious Metals funds mining companies upfront in exchange for a right to buy a share of their future metal output at low prices, known as a stream. Its target of 50% production growth by 2030 depends on partners finishing construction on time. Chief executive Haytham Hodaly highlighted the "first gold pour at Montage Gold’s Koné project and Hudbay’s approval of construction at Copper World" as key steps this quarter.
- Koné in Côte d'Ivoire: poured first gold on September 26, ahead of its late-2026 target, and ran at 104% of design capacity in late October
- Kurmuk in Ethiopia: partner Allied Gold reported on November 4 that "ore has been introduced into the processing plant and the mine is now in production"
- Salobo in Brazil: Wheaton agreed to pay Vale $40 million to build "a new flotation circuit that removes waste rock earlier", adding 6 million tonnes of yearly processing capacity while cancelling an older $80 million payment rule
- New construction approvals: partners approved building Copper World in the US and Jervois in Australia, and began building Marathon in Canada
Only one project slipped: Silvercorp reported that "due to extended rainfall, the El Domo completion date is expected to be delayed by four months" to November 2027. Because Koné and Kurmuk produce gold bars on site rather than raw ore concentrate, their metal reaches Wheaton within one to two months.
What to watch: initial gold sales from Koné and Kurmuk in the first quarter of 2027. Fast deliveries from both mines would confirm that the 2027 production step-up is underway.
Cash Flow Cut Net Debt by $417 Million
The streaming company took on $2.7 billion of bank debt in the second quarter to buy an extra silver stream at the Antamina mine in Peru for $4.3 billion. Investors have been watching how quickly operating cash flow can pay that borrowing back while funding ongoing mine commitments.
In the third quarter, the company generated $645 million in operating cash flow, paid $86.7 million in upfront stream installments for the El Domo and Marmato mines, distributed $87.7 million in dividends, and repaid $372 million on its credit facility. Net debt — bank borrowings minus cash — fell by $417.4 million from June to $1.45 billion at September 30.
What to watch: net debt at year-end and in the first quarter of 2027, when a scheduled Cdn$346 million global minimum tax payment comes due. Continued debt paydown above $350 million per quarter before that tax bill would leave plenty of credit capacity for new deals.
🐻 Bear Case
Gold Production Fell and Leaves a Steep Fourth-Quarter Climb
"Wheaton delivered another solid quarter, building on record year-to-date performance, and remains very well positioned to achieve our annual production guidance," chief executive Haytham Hodaly said. That total outlook converts silver and other metals into gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs) at fixed prices. In physical gold, third-quarter output fell 8.2% from a year ago to 91,753 ounces.
- Constancia gold: down 75% from a year ago to 3,166 ounces because "mining activities in the higher-gold grade Pampacancha pit were completed during Q4 2025"
- San Dimas gold: down 25% to 5,668 ounces due to "the impact of a labour dispute which began on September 18, 2026"
- Stillwater gold: down 30% to 1,207 ounces after a five-week strike from September 3 to October 9
- Salobo gold: up 5.9% from the second quarter to 65,769 ounces, but still down 1.8% from a year ago on lower ore grades
Through nine months, Wheaton has produced 279,448 ounces of gold. By our math, reaching the middle of the 400,000 to 430,000 ounce full-year gold plan requires 135,552 ounces in the fourth quarter — a 47.7% jump from the third quarter, and 4.1% above last year's fourth quarter when Constancia alone contributed 15,396 ounces from the now-depleted Pampacancha pit.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gold production against the 120,552 ounces needed to reach the bottom of the annual gold range. A shortfall in gold would mean Wheaton only met its total production target because silver filled the gap.
Underlying Production Barely Grew Without Antamina
Bulls view the doubling of the Antamina silver stream and a 36.5% jump in total silver output to 8.18 million ounces as a major growth driver. Bears note that total gold-equivalent production rose 13.3% from a year ago to 230,965 ounces primarily because of "the newly acquired BHP Antamina PMPA, which increased the Company’s share of silver production at Antamina from 33.75% to 67.5%" on April 1.
By our math, stripping out the extra 1.34 million silver ounces from that bought share leaves underlying gold-equivalent production up just 2.4% from a year ago, even with record silver output at Newmont's Peñasquito mine (+46%) and new gold from Hemlo and Fenix. At Antamina itself, Wheaton's silver ounces rose 60% while its ownership share doubled. By our math, total silver mined at the site fell 20.2% from a year ago because of "a greater proportion of copper-only ore processed during the quarter relative to copper-zinc ore, which contains more silver".
What to watch: Antamina silver output in the second quarter of 2027, once the acquisition laps its first anniversary. If the mine is still processing mostly copper-only ore, Antamina will become a drag on year-over-year silver growth.
Lower Metal Prices and Depletion Squeezed Quarterly Profit
Because a streaming firm pays largely fixed prices for metal, its revenue and profit move directly with market prices for gold and silver. While third-quarter prices were 36.4% higher than a year ago, both metals retreated from their second-quarter peaks.
- Average realized silver price: $62.13 per ounce, down 15.4% from $73.41 in the second quarter by our math
- Average realized gold price: $4,273 per ounce, down 4.0% from $4,452 in the second quarter by our math
- Third-quarter revenue: $771.7 million, down 17.0% from the second quarter's $929.2 million
- Depletion (the accounting write-off of upfront stream payments): rose 2.7 percentage points of revenue from a year ago to 16.6%, as the new $4.3 billion Antamina deal lifted Antamina's per-ounce depletion charge from $4.39 to $26.30
Higher depletion and $25.1 million of interest expense on the new bank debt — up from $1.4 million a year ago — meant a 62.0% year-over-year jump in revenue translated into 45.8% growth in net earnings excluding one-offs ($409.8 million).
What to watch: realized silver prices in the fourth quarter. Because silver now accounts for 46.4% of revenue and carries a 20% ongoing cash cost plus $26.30 per ounce of depletion at Antamina, further drops in silver prices will compress net margins faster than before.
💲 Other KPIs
Payable metal mined by partners but not yet shipped to Wheaton rose by 16,984 gold-equivalent ounces during the third quarter, up 2.0% from a year ago. At 2.6 months of annual production, the balance sits near the bottom of management's normal two-and-a-half to three-and-a-half month range, ahead of the usual fourth-quarter shipping flush.
Reported net profit rose 11.7% from a year ago, or $0.902 per diluted share. The third quarter of 2025 included an $85.7 million pre-tax gain ($72.9 million after tax) when partner CMOC bought back one-third of the Cangrejos gold stream. Excluding that one-off gain and minor fair-value items, profit rose 45.8% to $409.8 million.
Cash invested in mineral streams and royalties equalled 11.3% of revenue by our math, down from $4.50 billion in the second quarter (when the BHP Antamina deal closed) and $250.6 million a year ago. Third-quarter payments went to build El Domo ($44 million) and Marmato ($42 million), with another $51 million paid in October.
Diluted share count was unchanged from a year ago (+0.06%), as the company neither repurchased shares nor issued stock to fund its acquisitions. Wheaton declared a quarterly dividend of $0.195 per share, up 18.2% from $0.165 a year ago, and paid out $87.7 million in cash during the quarter.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year plan calls for about 11.8% growth at the 900,000-ounce middle of the range compared with 2025 output restated at the same metal price assumptions ($4,800 gold and $80 silver). By our math, that leaves 252,742 ounces for the fourth quarter, up 6.7% from a year ago. Wheaton beat its annual production range in both 2024 and 2025 by an average of 8.6% vs the middle of the range.
Unchanged. With 279,448 gold ounces produced in the first nine months (down 2.1% from a year ago), reaching the 415,000-ounce middle of the range requires 135,552 ounces in the fourth quarter by our math — a 47.7% jump from the third quarter and 4.1% above last year's fourth quarter. Even the 400,000-ounce bottom of the range requires 120,552 ounces, or 31.4% above the third quarter.
Unchanged. After producing 21.35 million ounces in the first nine months (up 31.2% from a year ago), Wheaton needs only 6.65 million ounces in the fourth quarter by our math to hit the 28-million-ounce middle of the range. That is 18.7% below its third-quarter output of 8.18 million ounces and 8.5% above a year ago, making a silver beat highly likely with a full quarter of doubled Antamina ownership.
Unchanged. Palladium, platinum and cobalt production totaled 12,053 gold-equivalent ounces through nine months after Voisey's Bay cobalt maintenance and the Stillwater strike cut third-quarter output by 28.3% from a year ago to 2,846 ounces. By our math, reaching the 20,000-ounce middle of the range requires 7,947 ounces in the fourth quarter, nearly double the year-to-date quarterly average.
Unchanged. Management still plans for annual production to rise about 50% from 2025 levels to 1.2 million gold-equivalent ounces by 2030 and hold that average from 2031 through 2035, using fixed conversion prices of $4,800 gold and $80 silver.
❓ Key Questions
How will fourth-quarter gold production jump 48% without Pampacancha?
Hitting the middle of the 2026 gold outlook requires 135,552 ounces in the fourth quarter, up 44,000 ounces from the third quarter. Last year's fourth-quarter spike came from Salobo and Constancia's high-grade Pampacancha pit, which is now depleted.
How much did the San Dimas strike cut fourth-quarter gold?
The Stillwater strike ended on October 9, but the release notes the San Dimas labour dispute began on September 18 with no end date given. San Dimas is Wheaton's second-largest gold producer.
When will Antamina return to mining silver-rich copper-zinc ore?
By our math, total silver mined at Antamina fell 20% from a year ago in the third quarter because the operator processed more copper-only ore. After paying $4.3 billion to double its silver share, investors need the multi-year grade schedule.
What is the new timetable for returning to net cash?
Wheaton cut net debt by $417 million to $1.45 billion in the third quarter, but faces a Cdn$346 million global minimum tax payment in March 2027 alongside ongoing project construction payments.