Venture Global (VG) Q3 2026 earnings review
Venture Global raises its 2026 outlook, while lower-fee contracts begin
Venture Global, the US liquefied natural gas exporter, rode high overseas gas prices to a third full-year outlook raise even as its newest plant switched onto lower-priced long-term contracts. Third-quarter revenue rose 43% to $4.8 billion and Adjusted Ebitda climbed 69% to $2.6 billion on 124 exported cargos. Chief executive Mike Sabel lifted the full-year Adjusted Ebitda target to $10.0–10.3 billion after locking in 99% of 2026 shipments.
| Revenue | $4.76B +43% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Adjusted Ebitda | $2.58B +69% from a year ago |
| Exported LNG cargos | 124 cargos +24% from a year ago |
| Full-year Adjusted Ebitda outlook | Raised $1.25B middle of the range: $10.15B (+62%) |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because the exporter locked in the rest of its 2026 shipments at higher fees and pulled first production at its huge CP2 plant forward to mid-2027. Those commercial wins add over $1 billion of cash flow this year and shorten the wait for the next volume wave. One caution: Plaquemines Phase 1 moved onto fixed-fee 20-year contracts on October 31, and a $1.4 billion interest-rate swap gain accounted for more than half of third-quarter net income.
The question now is how steep the earnings drop will be in 2027 as Plaquemines trades wartime market prices for 20-year contract fees. Either excess production above nameplate capacity and an early mid-2027 start at CP2 bridge the gap, or profit drops the way it did at Calcasieu Pass after its contract switch. First-quarter 2027 segment results and the first 2027 outlook will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Gas Market Prices Drive Another Outlook Raise
"Our strong operational performance and outlook on pricing have allowed us to raise the midpoint of our volume and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY 2026," chief executive Mike Sabel said. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA — operating cash profit before interest, taxes and depreciation — measures cash generation across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, while the company's reliance on market gas prices remains a standing risk if global supply recovers.
- Full-year Adjusted Ebitda plan: $10.0–10.3 billion, up $1.25 billion at the middle of the range
- Contracted 2026 cargos: 99% locked in at an average liquefaction fee of $6.46 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from 91% at $5.05/MMBtu last quarter
- Remaining unsold 2026 cargos: priced at $21.00–22.00/MMBtu in the plan, up from $12.50–13.50/MMBtu three months ago
The company locked in another 8% of its 2026 shipments during a spike in overseas gas prices, which lifted its full-year contracted fee by $1.41/MMBtu. By our math, the new plan points to $3.7 billion of Adjusted Ebitda in the fourth quarter alone, up 85% from a year ago even though shipment volumes barely grow.
What to watch: the contracted share and average fee for 2027 cargos in next quarter's annual report. A higher locked-in fee would prove the exporter captured current global gas prices beyond this winter.
CP2 Moves Faster and Long-Term Deals Return
Venture Global builds modular LNG export plants in Louisiana, led by its third major facility, CP2, and planned bolt-on expansions at CP2 and Plaquemines. After leaning toward five-year supply deals earlier this year, the exporter returned to signing 20-year sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) — long-term take-or-pay contracts measured in millions of tonnes per annum (MTPA).
The company pulled forward expected first LNG production at CP2 from the second half of 2027 to mid-year 2027 because 24 of the 36 liquefaction modules are now on site. It also signed 2.0 MTPA of 20-year contracts with ConocoPhillips, China Gas and an existing buyer, and paid back $2.8 billion of its $3.0 billion CP2 equity bridge loan since January while adding a $3.0 billion credit line.
What to watch: the final investment decision on the 10 MTPA CP2 brownfield expansion, targeted for early 2027. Approving that build on schedule would keep the multi-year volume ramp on track.
Wider Gas Margins Lifted Operating Profit
Venture Global earns the spread between overseas LNG prices and the American natural gas it buys as feed gas. Operating profit rose 74% from a year ago to $2.30 billion, lifting the operating margin by 8.6 percentage points to 48.3%, driven "predominantly from the Plaquemines Project as a result of commissioning progress, and higher LNG sales prices net of the costs of feed gas".
Cost of sales — the cost of feed gas and shipping — dropped 5.0 percentage points of revenue to 36.7%, while plant operating and maintenance costs fell 1.0 point to 6.4% and depreciation fell 0.9 points to 5.6%. By our math, revenue per unit of gas sold rose 14.4% from a year ago on top of a 24.9% rise in volume sold.
What to watch: operating margin in the fourth quarter, the first period after Plaquemines Phase 1 moved onto lower-priced long-term contracts. A drop toward 40% would show how much the contract transition weighs on margins.
🐻 Bear Case
Plaquemines Enters Its Lower-Fee Contract Era
Before a plant reaches its commercial operations date (COD), Venture Global sells early commissioning cargos at high market prices; after COD, it must deliver that gas to 20-year contract customers at low fixed fees. On October 31, 2026, the company declared COD at Phase 1 of its Plaquemines facility and loaded six cargos for long-term buyers.
We already know what this switch does to earnings because the company's first plant, Calcasieu Pass, went through its own "transition from selling LNG under LNG Commissioning Sales Agreements to under post-COD SPAs in April 2025". In the nine-month review, Venture Global noted that Calcasieu's shift lowered net sales prices across the group, and in the first half of 2026 Calcasieu's operating profit fell 77% from a year earlier.
Phase 2 of Plaquemines is scheduled to make the same switch in mid-2027. That means the company's biggest current profit engine will trade market rates for fixed contract fees just as the new CP2 plant starts its early test production.
What to watch: Plaquemines segment operating income in the first-quarter 2027 filing, the first full quarter of Phase 1 contract deliveries. A drop from recent levels would measure the earnings step-down ahead of Phase 2 COD.
Swap Gains and Rising Debt Mask Core Costs
Venture Global highlighted a 493% jump in net income to $2.55 billion alongside its construction buildout. Look past the headline, and more than half of that bottom-line profit came from a non-operating derivative swing while the balance sheet took on Billions in new debt.
- Interest rate swap gain: $1.37 billion pre-tax in Q3, vs a $144 million loss a year ago
- Net income before the swap gain: $1.18 billion by our math, less than half the reported $2.55 billion
- Total debt: $44.6 billion as of September 30, up 36.9% from $32.6 billion a year ago
- Net interest expense: $486 million in Q3, up 15.4% from a year ago
While construction continues, the exporter capitalises part of its interest bill onto the balance sheet. Because Plaquemines Phase 1 entered commercial service on October 31, the interest on its construction debt will now hit the income statement directly.
What to watch: net interest expense in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2027. A jump above $500 million a quarter would show the ongoing cash cost of the $44.6 billion debt load after Phase 1 COD.
Arbitration, Spot Exposure and Governance Risks Stand
Several standing legal, financial and governance risks received no new numbers in the third-quarter earnings release.
- Calcasieu Pass customer arbitrations: BP and two other buyers seek billions in damages over commissioning delays ahead of a May 2027 BP damages hearing; the quarterly filing's legal footnote will show any new award or reserve.
- Plaquemines commissioning claims: Phase 1 reached COD 22 months after its first cargo, and the quarterly filing will show whether any Plaquemines buyer has filed a dispute.
- Uncontracted 2027 gas exposure and founder control: the release did not update the 75% contracted share for 2027 cargos, and the founders' 1.97 billion Class B shares still control shareholder votes.
What to watch: the legal proceedings footnote in the third-quarter Form 10-Q filing. Any adverse arbitration ruling before year-end would test whether liability caps protect project cash flows.
👓 Other Themes
Equipment Deals Lay Groundwork for Data Center Power
In October, chief executive Mike Sabel announced frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 new 720-megawatt power islands to build "an off-grid AI utility to support data centers" on company land in Louisiana. Venture Global plans to deliver initial compute power in late 2028 and scale to 5 gigawatts by 2031, though it reported no customer contracts or project budgets yet.
💲 Other KPIs
Plant and equipment on the balance sheet rose 32.6% from a year ago and increased by $10.78 billion since December 2025. That buildout reflects ongoing construction at Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2, where 24 of 36 liquefaction modules are now on site.
Total cash — including $3.42 billion of unrestricted cash and $1.71 billion of cash restricted for project construction and debt service — grew 44.7% from $3.54 billion a year ago. In addition, the operating subsidiary secured a new $3.0 billion 364-day revolving credit line for general corporate and expansion costs.
Early-stage project development spending fell 37.7% from $53 million a year ago, and nine-month spending dropped 65.1% to $102 million. Once a project reaches its final investment decision, engineering and build costs are capitalised onto the balance sheet rather than expensed on the income statement.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The middle of the range rose by $1.25 billion to $10.15 billion, or 62% growth for the year. By our math, that leaves $3.70 billion for the fourth quarter, up 85% from a year ago. It is the third raise this year (+$2.85B, +$0.55B, +$1.25B), driven by locking in 99% of 2026 cargos and assuming $21–22/MMBtu fees on the unsold 1%.
Raised. Management lifted the bottom of the full-year shipment target by 9 cargos, putting the middle of the range at 513.5 cargos, up 35% from 2025. By our math, that leaves 132.5 cargos for the fourth quarter, up 8.5 cargos from Q3 and 3.5% above last year's fourth quarter.
Raised. The company lifted the low end of its Plaquemines shipment plan by 6 cargos, moving the middle of the range to 360.5 cargos. By our math, after shipping 87 cargos in Q3 and 269 cargos in the first nine months, Plaquemines needs 91.5 cargos in Q4 to hit the middle of the target.
Raised. The exporter bumped the bottom of the Calcasieu Pass range up by 3 cargos after the plant shipped 37 cargos in Q3. By our math, with 112 cargos shipped through September, the middle of the range leaves 41 cargos for the fourth quarter as cooler weather follows summer maintenance.
Cut. The middle of the range for the minority partners' share of Adjusted Ebitda at Calcasieu Pass fell by $10 million to $150 million. That follows a $10 million reduction last quarter and reflects lower post-COD earnings at the Calcasieu facility.
❓ Key Questions
What share of 2027 cargos is now contracted, and at what fee?
The company locked in 99% of 2026 cargos at $6.46/MMBtu during the recent gas price jump, but did not update its 75% contracted figure for 2027. Investors need the 2027 locked-in rate to gauge next year's cash flow after Plaquemines Phase 1 COD.
How much will Plaquemines Phase 1 COD reduce quarterly profit?
Phase 1 switched from market-priced commissioning sales to 20-year fixed-fee contracts on October 31. When Calcasieu Pass made the same switch in April 2025, its segment operating profit fell 77% in the first half of 2026.
Did the pending Calcasieu customer arbitration award arrive?
Last quarter, management expected an arbitration ruling in one of the non-BP customer cases before year-end 2026. The press release gave no update on that ruling or on any disputes from Plaquemines buyers.
What is the capital budget for the 16 new power islands?
Venture Global signed equipment deals with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power islands (about 11.5 GW total) to serve data centers starting late 2028, while already carrying $44.6 billion in debt.