United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) Q3 2026 earnings review
US Antimony profit margins double, but management drops revenue target
United States Antimony Corporation, a processor of critical metals for ammunition and flame retardants, expanded its profit margin on its first military shipments but abandoned its full-year sales target. Third-quarter revenue rose 16% to $10 million, and gross margin reached 42% because those military deliveries carried high fixed prices from last year while ore costs dropped. However, government lab testing took longer than chief executive Gary Evans anticipated, holding military sales to about half of his August target and prompting the company to withdraw its $60 million to $75 million full-year revenue plan.
| Revenue | $10.1M +16% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 42% 23% a year ago |
| Antimony volume sold | 468,842 lbs +68% from a year ago |
| Full-year revenue outlook | Withdrawn replaced with a 24% volume growth plan |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because the $57 million military backlog will convert to cash much slower and at lower prices than previously indicated. Not only did the company drop its dollar outlook after cutting it three months ago, but a new table shows that its largest military order carries a price of $15 per pound by our math, down from more than $31 on the first order. On the positive side, October shipment volumes hit a monthly record as government approval times shortened and the new Montana mill started up.
The question now is whether lower ore costs and in-house mining can protect profit margins once the first high-priced military order runs out. Either cheaper Montana ore keeps the business profitable at $10 to $15 antimony prices, or heavy exploration overhead and falling prices keep the company burning cash. Fourth-quarter gross margin and operating cash flow will show which side is right.
🐂 Bull Case
Military Shipments Lifted Gross Margin to 42%
United States Antimony Corporation (USAC) processes antimony, a critical metal used in ammunition and flame retardants. For the first time, the company delivered antimony metal ingots to the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the US military's supply arm, alongside its regular industrial sales.
- Military shipments: about 162,000 pounds at roughly $31.50 per pound, bringing in $5.1 million
- Average antimony cost: down 51% from a year ago to $10.19 per pound
- Gross margin: 42%, up from 23% a year ago and 7% last quarter
The company locked in its first military order last year when market prices were much higher. Because global ore costs dropped by half while the military paid last year's fixed rate, gross profit more than doubled to $4.3 million.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gross margin once USAC finishes its first military order. Only about 39,000 pounds remain on that $31.43-per-pound order, so future margins will depend on cheaper in-house ore.
Domestic Processing and Pentagon Funding Advance
The Montana-based processor is building its own domestic supply chain so it relies less on outside mills and foreign ore. During the third quarter, the Department of War raised the payment limit on its Defense Production Act grant from $16.2 million to $20.3 million, and USAC started up its Radersburg mill in Montana to process ore from its own Stibnite Hill mine.
Faster government testing and higher smelter output pushed October antimony sales to a record 310,000 pounds, nearly double the third quarter's monthly pace. Revenue from zeolite, an industrial mineral used in cattle feed and water filters, also grew 55% to $1.0 million. What to watch: how many tons of Stibnite Hill ore the Radersburg mill processes in the fourth quarter, which will show whether in-house mining can lower unit costs.
🐻 Bear Case
Management Dropped Its Full-Year Revenue Target
Three months ago, chief executive Gary Evans cut the 2026 revenue outlook from $125 million to a range of $60 million to $75 million, and expected $9 million to $10 million in third-quarter military sales. This quarter, the company recognised $5.1 million from the military and announced it is "withdrawing its prior 2026 revenue guidance of $60 million to $75 million".
Evans said "every step — sampling, assay, shipment, inspection and acceptance — took longer than originally anticipated", while the release also noted a "slower-than-planned ramp in metal ingot production at the expanded Thompson Falls smelter". In addition, USAC disclosed that the remaining $48.6 million of military orders "carry periods of performance running through 2029", cutting against last quarter's indication that it would fill the entire $57.3 million book this year.
Replacing a dollar target with a volume plan hides how much revenue fell short. By our math, the new volume plan and October prices point to roughly $35 million in full-year sales, about half of the withdrawn target.
What to watch: whether the military accepts shipments eight and nine before December 31. Missing that cutoff leaves fourth-quarter military sales at just October's $3.6 million.
New Military Orders Carry Half the Price
Global antimony market prices fell 63% over the past year to $8.16 per pound in early November. That drop cut USAC's average selling price on antimony trioxide (ATO), a powder sold to industrial flame-retardant makers, by 58% from a year ago to $12.16 per pound in the third quarter, and further to $10.45 in October.
The company's military contract shields it from spot prices only on orders already placed, because each new delivery order resets to the market price at the time of award. A new order table in the release shows the reset clearly.
- Order 0001 (September 2025): 315,000 pounds for $9.9 million, or $31.43 per pound by our math
- Order 0003 (June 2026): 654,578 pounds for $15.5 million, or $23.68 per pound by our math
- Order 0004 (June 2026): 2,000,000 pounds for $30.0 million, or $15.00 per pound by our math
Two-thirds of the remaining military backlog sits in Order 0004 at $15.00 per pound. What to watch: the semi-annual price reset on USAC's five-year industrial ATO contract after December 2026, which will show if industrial sales stay profitable near $10 per pound.
Exploration and Inventory Burned $25 Million
Even though gross profit doubled, USAC's operating loss widened from $4.9 million a year ago to $6.0 million. Mineral exploration spending in Alaska jumped by $3.4 million, rising by 31.6 percentage points of revenue, while general and administrative overhead rose by 8.1 percentage points. Lower stock-based pay reduced salaries and benefits by 25.0 percentage points of revenue, softening the hit.
Below the operating line, a $3.8 million paper loss on its shares in Australian miner Larvotto Resources pushed the net loss to $9.5 million, or $5.7 million excluding that investment swing by our math. Over the first nine months, the miner burned $24.7 million in operating cash, mainly to add $16.2 million of inventory, and covered the outflow by selling $49.1 million of new stock.
What to watch: fourth-quarter operating cash flow now that the company is collecting cash on military deliveries. If inventory keeps rising faster than shipments, USAC will keep burning cash.
👓 Other Themes
Bolivian Supplier Plans to Prepay Its Loan
In October, USAC's Bolivian ore supplier gave notice that it intends to pay back its $4.0 million loan and $177,000 of interest early, while keeping USAC's exclusive North American supply and technology rights in place. Separately, the board approved a $100 million share buyback in August, and the company spent $3.1 million repurchasing shares through October after raising $49.1 million from stock sales earlier this year.
💲 Other KPIs
Stockpiles of antimony ore and finished products more than tripled from $8.4 million a year ago and rose from $21.6 million last quarter. USAC is buying feedstock at lower market prices ahead of planned military and industrial deliveries, which tied up $16.2 million of cash in the first nine months and required a $0.1 million write-down this quarter.
Liquid holdings consist of $51.0 million in cash and US Treasury debt, unchanged from year-end 2025, plus a $39.4 million stake in Larvotto Resources, down from $43.2 million last quarter due to share-price and currency drops. The company has no debt drawn on its $19.0 million credit line and has $7.5 million in approved Pentagon grant funds waiting on project milestones.
The average number of shares rose 21.2% from 123.4 million a year ago because the critical-minerals producer sold shares earlier in 2026 to fund its smelter expansion and ore stockpiles. Buybacks of 368,640 shares in the third quarter and 404,397 shares in October removed less than 1% of the total share count.
🔮 Guidance
Withdrawn. Management dropped its dollar sales target after cutting it from $125 million in August. Nine-month sales reached $24.8 million, and by our math the new volume plan and October prices point to roughly $10 million in the fourth quarter, leaving the full year near $35 million. The processor also missed its full-year revenue outlook in 2025.
New. The plan calls for antimony volume to rise about 24% at the middle of the range from 1.41 million pounds in 2025. By our math, that leaves about 569,000 pounds for the fourth quarter, up 33.1% from a year ago. With 310,000 pounds already sold in October, November and December need only 129,000 pounds per month, reflecting seasonal December slowdowns and government testing lags.
New. Through October, the military had already accepted 275,688 pounds across seven shipments. The low end of the full-year range assumes zero further acceptances in November or December, while the high end assumes the military approves shipments eight and nine (79,927 pounds) before year-end. Shipments ten through fourteen are slated for 2027.
New. Industrial customers bought 1.01 million pounds in the first nine months and 196,800 pounds in October, bringing the ten-month total to 1.21 million pounds. By our math, the middle of the range leaves about 214,000 pounds across November and December combined, down from October's pace because industrial buyers typically order less in December.
New. USAC sold 14,114 tons of zeolite in the first nine months and 1,319 tons in October. By our math, the middle of the range leaves 3,886 tons for the fourth quarter, a 1.6% uptick from the third quarter after volume fell 42% between the second and third quarters.
❓ Key Questions
What is the monthly output rate at Thompson Falls?
The company previously expected all nine furnaces at its expanded Montana smelter to run in the third quarter, but the release cited a slower ramp in metal ingot production and gave no monthly tonnage figure.
How much of the $28 million inventory is high-cost ore?
Inventory climbed to $28.1 million while industrial selling prices dropped to $10.45 per pound in October. Investors need the per-pound cost of current stockpiles to judge the risk of larger inventory write-downs.
When will USAC sell its $39 million Larvotto stake?
The Australian stock holding caused a $3.8 million paper loss this quarter after a $6.8 million paper gain last quarter. Management previously hinted at selling the shares, but gave no timeline in the release.
Why did the Bolivian supplier decide to prepay its loan?
The Bolivian partner wants to repay its $4.0 million convertible note early and release the collateral. Management did not say how much antimony ore Bolivia has actually delivered to Montana so far.