US Antimony (UAMY) Q2 2026 earnings review
Reality Check: Antimony Prices Crash, Slicing 'Warp Speed' Guidance
The aggressive 'warp speed' narrative from last quarter hit a wall. Q2 revenue fell 25% YoY to $7.9M as global antimony prices collapsed. The company formally slashed its highly promotional $125M FY26 revenue guidance down to $60-$75M. While the company reported a positive net income of $0.1M (EPS of $0.00), this headline figure is severely distorted by a massive paper gain on an equity investment, masking a widening $7.0M operating loss. The bright spots are the initiation of physical deliveries to the U.S. government (DLA) and a surging Zeolite business, but core antimony economics have deteriorated significantly.
🐂 Bull Case
The first 82,000 lbs of antimony ingots ($2.6M value) were successfully delivered to the DLA. With $57.3M in DLA orders on the books, a reliable government revenue stream is materializing.
Zeolite is no longer an afterthought. Revenue jumped 110% YoY, providing high-volume diversification away from volatile critical minerals.
🐻 Bear Case
Gross margins collapsed to 7% from 27% a year ago. The average realized selling price of antimony plummeted 52% YoY, vastly outpacing the 33% reduction in production costs.
The reported $0.1M net income is an illusion. Operations lost $7.0M. The bottom line was entirely rescued by a $6.8M unrealized mark-to-market gain on Larvotto Resources stock.
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴
Bearish. The violent 50%+ cut to full-year guidance exposes the execution risk and commodity vulnerability underlying management's previous hype. Heavy equity dilution and poor earnings quality outweigh the commencement of government deliveries.
Key Themes
Macro Reversal: Antimony Price Collapse
The macro environment is Reversing aggressively. Management originally modeled FY26 guidance on antimony spot prices above $28/lb. In Q2, spot prices cratered to ~$10.50/lb, driving the company's average realized selling price down 52% YoY to $13.70/lb. This complete breakdown in pricing power forced the drastic guidance cut and proves the company remains highly vulnerable to commodity cycles despite its strategic government positioning.
Earnings Quality Contradicts Positive Narrative
Management headline highlights 'Net Income of $0.1 Million', but a specific look at the income statement contradicts this stability. The underlying business is bleeding cash. Operating loss ballooned to $7.0M (up from breakeven last year). The only reason net income was positive was a $6.8M unrealized paper gain on the company's investment in Larvotto Resources—a company USAC management openly expressed disgust for in the Q1 call. Operating cash flow for the first six months sits at an alarming -$20.7M.
DLA Contract Execution Initiated
Execution on the highly anticipated Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) contract is Accelerating. The company delivered its first two shipments totaling ~82,000 pounds of antimony ingots. Because official acceptance occurred in July, the $2.6M revenue will hit Q3 instead of Q2. With another $6.57M in transit or waiting on inspection, and $57.3M total on the books, the H2 revenue ramp has concrete backing.
Zeolite Breakout in Agricultural Markets
The Zeolite segment is Accelerating rapidly. Volumes sold surged 114% to 6,609 tons, driving a 110% YoY revenue increase to $1.9M. This growth is a direct result of successful commercialization efforts into the cattle nutrition market. Gross profit for this segment also quadrupled YoY (from $0.1M to $0.4M), showing that scale is driving better unit economics.
Massive Dilution to Fund Inventory
To fund operations and a massive inventory buildup (up 178% from year-end to $21.6M), the company heavily diluted shareholders. USAC generated $49.1M in net proceeds from equity issuances in just six months. While this doubled working capital to $70.0M and provides a runway for growth investments, the cost to the capital structure was severe.
Advancing Vertical Processing Capabilities
Despite financial turbulence, infrastructure execution remains Stable. The company commissioned the Radersburg flotation facility and substantially completed the Thompson Falls smelter expansion. Furthermore, the announcement of a joint venture with Americas Gold and Silver to build a state-of-the-art hydromet processing facility in Idaho highlights a continued focus on processing technological innovation.
Other KPIs
Decelerating violently from 27% in Q2 2025. While cost per pound dropped 33% to $13.34, it wasn't nearly enough to offset the 52% plunge in the average selling price.
Accelerating accumulation. Inventory is up 178% from the end of 2025 ($12.5M). Management frames this as a strategic buildup of antimony feedstock to support commercial and DLA delivery timetables, though it severely drains operating cash.
Heavy investment phase continues. This gross CapEx figure was partially offset by a $12.8M payment received under the Defense Production Act Title III grant, reducing the net cash burden on the company.
Guidance
Reversing sharply from the prior expectation of $125 million. The new midpoint ($67.5M) implies an acceleration from the $14.7M generated in H1 2026, meaning H2 requires roughly $52.8M in revenue to hit the midpoint. This relies heavily on rapidly clearing the $57.3M DLA order backlog.
Key Questions
Smelter Breakeven Point
With realized antimony prices dropping 52% to $13.70/lb, what is the new breakeven volume required at the newly expanded Thompson Falls smelter to achieve positive operating margins?
Larvotto Resources Exit Strategy
A $6.8M unrealized gain on Larvotto Resources saved Q2 net income. Given management's previous dissatisfaction with Larvotto's leadership, what is the timeline and strategy for liquidating this $43.2M position to fund actual operations?
Cash Burn and Future Dilution
Operating cash burn was $20.7M in the first half of the year. Is the $70M in working capital (boosted by heavy equity dilution) sufficient to bridge the company to positive free cash flow, or should investors brace for further capital raises?