US Antimony (UAMY) Q1 2026 earnings review
Antimony Prices Rise 22%. Margins Crash to 16%.
Q1 was supposed to be the quarter where in-house ore drove margin expansion - that was management's promise on the November call. Instead, gross margin compressed to 16.4% from 33.9% a year ago, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. Revenue was flat at $6.8M as antimony pounds sold fell 23%, offsetting a 22% rise in selling price per pound. The real problem is on the cost side: cost per pound jumped 69%, more than three times the price gain. Operating expenses quadrupled to $8.6M, including $4.8M of stock-based compensation - 20x last year's level. Net loss reached $11.3M, with $9.3M of that classified as non-cash items. Pro forma liquidity is $108.7M after a $48.6M post-quarter equity raise (4.2M shares at $11.57). Management reiterated $125M FY26 revenue guidance - which requires Q2-Q4 to average $39.4M each, or 5.8x the Q1 run-rate.
🐂 Bull Case
First two delivery notices given under the $245M DLA contract; $12M in sales orders received. Management now expects $75M-$95M of FY26 revenue from federal government antimony ingot shipments alone.
Radersburg flotation mill acquired ($4.8M) and operational, with new lab nearly complete. Bolivia hydromet partner producing metallic antimony flake, with first shipment in transit to Thompson Falls. Stibnite Hill mine ready to resume hauling pending Montana DEQ leach-plan approval.
🐻 Bear Case
Gross margin: 34% -> 27% -> 23% -> 20% -> 16%. Management explicitly promised 'significant margin expansion' in Q1 26 driven by in-house ore (on the Q3 25 call). Reality moved in the opposite direction. The thesis that domestic ore unlocks 60%+ margins remains entirely unproven.
Revenue was flat YoY, but operating expenses grew 328% ($2.0M -> $8.6M). Even excluding the $4.8M of SBC, cash operating expenses roughly doubled. The cost base has been built for a much larger company that does not yet exist.
Hitting $125M requires Q2-Q4 to average $39.4M - 5.8x the Q1 quarterly rate, and higher than the entire FY25 of $39.3M. Thompson Falls won't reach full nameplate (230 tons/month) until late July. CEO Evans openly told investors quarters will be 'bumpy.'
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴
Bearish. The Q1 data flatly contradicts the most important plank of the bull thesis - that vertical integration drives margin expansion. Instead, margins compressed further, the cost base ballooned, and the cash position was rescued by another round of dilution. The $125M guidance is now mathematically dependent on near-perfect H2 execution across Thompson Falls commissioning, Alaska mining, DLA deliveries, and Bolivia ramp - simultaneously.
Key Themes
Margin Expansion Promise Fails - Costs Outrun Prices
The most important data point this quarter: antimony selling price per pound rose 22% to $19.92, while cost per pound rose 69% to $16.28. Gross profit per pound fell from $6.68 to $3.64 - a 46% decline despite record-high antimony prices. This directly contradicts the Q3 25 call commitment that Q1 26 would show 'significant margin expansion' from in-house ore. Management blames 'higher-cost ore moving through cost of sales' - meaning Q1 26 reflects expensive third-party feedstock purchased through 2025, with zero contribution yet from Montana mining or DLA-priced shipments.
Operating Expense Base Built for a Much Larger Company
Operating expenses quadrupled YoY: salaries and benefits went from $1.0M to $5.9M (with $4.8M of that being stock-based compensation, vs. just $0.25M a year ago), professional fees from $0.4M to $1.3M, G&A from $0.55M to $1.33M. The $4.8M of SBC reflects equity grants tied to leadership hires and share-price appreciation. Even stripped of SBC, cash operating expenses roughly doubled. Management argues this scaffolding is necessary for H2 ramp - but the run-rate now requires significant revenue growth just to break even on cash operating costs.
Larvotto Position Remains Stranded - and Volatile
USAC invested $37.2M for ~10% of Larvotto Resources in late 2025 with intent to take it over; the bid was rejected. Q1 included a $4.1M unrealized mark-to-market loss on the position (carried at $36.4M at quarter-end). The stock has since recovered to $46.6M as of May 13. Management on the call said dialogue with Larvotto's board has gone 'absolutely nowhere' and they are now actively evaluating selling the stake on the open market or to a buyer. CEO Evans cited concern about 10% Chinese ownership and a Chinese marketing agreement. This represents one of the largest capital allocations in company history sitting in suspended animation.
Thompson Falls Expansion - Now Phased Commissioning Through July
VP Jeffrey Fink walked through a notably more granular timeline: three of nine furnaces can run at 50% capacity now with fabricated parts; OEM heat exchanger parts begin arriving last week of May and continue arriving weekly; all 9 furnaces operational near mid-July. Even at full ramp, management expects only ~80% of nameplate capacity by end of July due to operator learning curve. New plant capacity is 230 tons/month; old plant (which must be shut down for emissions upgrades after new plant stabilizes) is 75 tons/month. The four-to-eight week old-plant shutdown for emissions retrofit will further constrain throughput. The chain of dependencies on third-party equipment makers continues to push timelines: this is now ~6 months behind the original year-end 2025 target.
DLA Contract Execution Begins - $75M-$95M FY26 Target
First two delivery notices have been issued under the $245M sole-source DLA contract. $12M in sales orders received to date. CEO Evans now expects $75M-$95M of FY26 revenue from federal antimony ingot shipments - 60-76% of the $125M full-year target. Government inspection of initial deliveries is underway. The DLA orders carry serial-number stamping requirements and specific packaging, which the company has now built capabilities for. This is the single most important variable in the FY26 outlook.
Inventory Built Specifically for H2 Ramp
Antimony inventory grew 503% YoY and 81% sequentially, to $21.7M ($22.0M total inventory). The Madero smelter is receiving ~225 tons/month of high-quality feedstock under consolidated supply contracts. Bolivian partner has commissioned processing circuits and shipped first metallic antimony flake to Thompson Falls. This is the physical raw material needed to deliver against DLA orders and reach the 500+ tons/month target. The flip side: $9.7M of operating cash was consumed in this inventory build during Q1 alone.
Zeolite Cattle Nutrition Hitting Inflection
Bear River Zeolite shipped record monthly tonnage in March (42% above target) and again in April (66% above target). Both months were all-time records. Demand from cattle nutrition customers is now outpacing existing infrastructure, prompting phased capacity and automation upgrades. Two new cattle nutrition customers signed in the two weeks before the call; more in discussion. Management notes beef prices at all-time highs are driving cattlemen toward feed-efficiency additives. Q1 zeolite revenue was still down (~7% YoY) as the segment's record months were March and April - meaning meaningful financial impact won't appear until Q2.
Government Funding Pipeline Continues to Expand
Of the $27M Department of War (DoW) award, $12.8M was recognized as a grant receivable in Q1 (received as cash in April). Under newly adopted ASU 2025-10, the $12.8M reduces the carrying value of construction-in-progress for Thompson Falls rather than flowing through revenue or income - lowering future depreciation. Management has $274M in additional federal grant applications filed: $44M Department of Energy for hydromet; $5M DIBC for tungsten exploration; $105M for tungsten/hydromet domestic supply; $119M for a hydromet critical minerals concentrator. First DOE response expected in 45-60 days.
Tungsten Resource Re-Valued at Current Prices
The SK-1300 technical report filed in April disclosed inferred resources of 14.62M metric tons at 0.17% WO3, containing 53.595M lbs of tungsten trioxide. At the TRS assumed prices, the gross resource value is $4.6B; on the call, EVP Bardswich said at today's tungsten price ($3,300/metric ton unit), the gross value would be approximately $9.3B. First Nations blessing ceremony pending to begin operations. Bulk sample of 20,000-50,000 tons targeted for processing at a local Sudbury-area mill, with concentrate shipped to a Pennsylvania ammonium-paratungstate processor. Management was direct that no meaningful tungsten revenue expected in 2026.
Other KPIs
Volume decline overwhelmed price gains. Management attributed the drop to 'timing of customer orders and shipments' and stated explicitly that none of the Q1 volume went to the government - i.e., zero DLA deliveries recognized in Q1. The volume number is the most concrete indicator that DLA-driven revenue ramp has not yet begun, with deliveries starting only in Q2.
Breakdown at March 31: $3.2M cash + $20.5M HTM Treasuries + $36.4M Larvotto equity stake. Pro forma for the $48.6M post-quarter equity raise (4.2M shares at $11.57), liquidity is $108.7M. Larvotto stake further appreciated to $46.6M by May 13. A $19M undrawn margin credit facility provides additional capacity. The optical liquidity is healthy but is entirely a function of capital markets activity, not operations - $24.6M of free cash was burned in Q1 alone.
Operating cash use was $12.1M, driven primarily by a $9.7M inventory build. Capex of $12.6M included $4.8M for the Radersburg flotation mill acquisition, $4.6M for Thompson Falls construction-in-progress, and $3.2M for new mineral rights acquisitions. The DoW grant recognition of $12.8M (received as cash in April) will offset roughly half of the Thompson Falls capex retrospectively but does not change the Q1 cash flow optics. Shareholder dilution remains the primary funding source: 4.2M shares issued post-quarter on top of 24% dilution already absorbed in 2025.
Of the $11.3M net loss, $4.8M was stock-based compensation, $4.1M was unrealized mark-to-market loss on the Larvotto position, and $0.4M was D&A. The underlying cash operating loss was roughly $2.0M - still well below break-even but smaller than the headline suggests. The SBC line item deserves particular attention: it grew nearly 20x YoY, reflecting equity grants tied to share-price appreciation. As long as the stock appreciates and grants vest, SBC will continue to be a meaningful drag on reported earnings.
Guidance
Stable vs prior. Implies ~218% growth over FY25's $39.3M. Q1 came in at $6.8M, leaving $118.2M to deliver in Q2-Q4 - a quarterly average of $39.4M, or 5.8x the Q1 run-rate. Management acknowledged the back-half loading explicitly and warned of 'bumpy' quarters. CEO Evans now expects $75M-$95M from federal DLA antimony ingot shipments, which would be 60-76% of the total. The guidance survival depends on: (1) Thompson Falls reaching ~80% nameplate by late July, (2) Bolivia flake flowing to Thompson Falls consistently, (3) DLA acceptance of delivered ingots, and (4) Stibnite Hill resuming operations once Montana DEQ approves the leach-test mitigation plan in the next two weeks.
Reversing/Decelerating from prior guidance. Original target was year-end 2025; pushed to January 2026; then to May 2026; now phased through mid-July. Three furnaces can operate at 50% capacity now with fabricated parts; remaining six furnaces commissioned weekly through May-July as OEM heat exchanger parts arrive. Even at full ramp, only ~80% of nameplate (230 tons/month new plant capacity) expected by late July. The old plant (75 tons/month) must then be shut down 4-8 weeks for emissions retrofit. This effectively eliminates Q2 as a meaningful ramp quarter.
Filed but pending decisions: $44M DOE hydromet (filed January, answer expected 45-60 days); $5M DIBC tungsten exploration; $105M tungsten/hydromet domestic supply; $119M hydromet critical minerals concentrator. The remaining $14.2M of the existing $27M DoW award is gated: $8M expected during 2026 as Thompson Falls commissioning milestones are completed; $7M for Alaska tied to 2027 deployment due to environmental requirements. Grants reduce PP&E carrying value rather than flowing through revenue.
Key Questions
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory to $125M
Given Thompson Falls won't reach 80% of nameplate until late July, and the old plant must then be shut down for 4-8 weeks for emissions retrofit, how does revenue actually phase across Q2, Q3, and Q4? What is the minimum acceptable Q2 number that keeps full-year guidance on the table?
Domestic Ore Margins - Hard Numbers Required
Management has claimed 60%+ gross margins from in-house ore for over a year, yet not a single ton has flowed through P&L. With Stibnite Hill set to resume hauling in the next two weeks, what is the actual all-in cost per pound of domestic ore vs. the $16.28 third-party Q1 cost? When in 2026 does in-house ore start showing up in cost of sales?
Larvotto Resolution and Capital Recycling
The 10% Larvotto stake is now worth $46.6M (up $10.2M post-quarter). With dialogue described as going 'absolutely nowhere' and a stated openness to selling, what is the timeline? If sold near current value, the $37.2M investment would return roughly $9M after a year of work - what would that capital be redeployed into?
Stock-Based Compensation Run-Rate
Q1 SBC was $4.8M, an annualized rate of $19M against $39M of FY25 revenue. Are these grants front-loaded with the leadership build-out, or should investors model this magnitude of SBC continuing through 2026 and 2027? At what stock price do additional grants get triggered?
DLA Contract Pricing Structure
Under what pricing structure are deliveries made - fixed price, market-indexed, or cost-plus? If antimony prices decline in 2026, does the DLA contract economics shift materially? What is the assumed gross margin on the $75M-$95M of DLA shipments embedded in FY26 guidance?