Take-Two (TTWO) Q4 2026 earnings review
Record FY27 Outlook Eclipses Flat Q4 as GTA VI Looms
Take-Two closed FY26 with flat Q4 Net Bookings ($1.58B), masking a 19% growth year for the full fiscal year. The real story, however, is the guidance. Driven by the confirmed November 19th launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, FY27 is projected to establish a completely new baseline, with Net Bookings surging to an estimated $8.1 billion and a long-awaited reversal back to GAAP profitability. While Mobile remains a robust growth engine, a sudden 40% collapse in PC bookings raises near-term questions. Overall, the financial trajectory is violently accelerating upward as the company transitions from a development cycle into a historic monetization phase.
🐂 Bull Case
FY27 guidance projects Net Bookings of $8.0-$8.2 billion and Operating Cash Flow over $1 billion. The GTA VI release is a generational catalyst that will aggressively reverse the company's multi-year streak of GAAP net losses.
Zynga continues to execute. Mobile Net Bookings grew 14% YoY in Q4 to $829.1M, led by 'forever franchises' like Toon Blast and Match Factory! Mobile now accounts for 52% of total Q4 Net Bookings.
🐻 Bear Case
PC Net Bookings plummeted 40% YoY in Q4 to $149.1M from $249.7M. Without new major releases to prop it up, the segment is severely lagging the company average.
Q1 2027 Net Bookings guidance of $1.32-$1.37B signals a sequential and YoY deceleration, marking a lull in consumer spending before the GTA VI marketing blitz.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. The flat Q4 results are entirely overshadowed by the sheer magnitude of the FY27 guidance. Management has successfully bridged the gap to the GTA VI launch via mobile outperformance, and the cash flow turnaround has already begun.
Key Themes
The Historic FY27 Supercycle
With Grand Theft Auto VI slated for November 19, 2026, Take-Two is forecasting a financial reset. FY27 Net Bookings are guided at an $8.1B midpoint, implying a ~$1.4B YoY addition. More importantly, this translates directly to the bottom line, guiding for GAAP Net Income of $105M-$141M—a massive reversing trend after a $298M loss in FY26 and a $4.5B loss in FY25. Operating Cash Flow is targeted at over $1 billion, providing immense capital allocation flexibility.
Mobile (Zynga) Stabilizing the Top Line
Mobile continues to carry the weight between core immersive releases. In Q4, Mobile Net Bookings accelerated 14% YoY to $829.1M, representing 52% of the total pie. Recurrent Consumer Spending across the portfolio grew 7% in Q4, driven primarily by Toon Blast, Match Factory!, Color Block Jam, and Empires & Puzzles. This predictable recurring revenue significantly de-risks the business model.
PC Segment Falls Off a Cliff
A major red flag exists in the PC platform. While Console was flat YoY in Q4 ($602.1M) and Mobile grew 14%, PC Net Bookings collapsed 40.3% YoY, falling from $249.7M in 25Q4 to $149.1M in 26Q4. This indicates severe decay in older PC catalog sales and a lack of fresh releases to stimulate the platform, making it a critical laggard.
Margin & Cash Flow Quality Reversing Upward
Underlying cash generation has dramatically improved. Full-year FY26 Operating Cash Flow was $624.3M, a hard reversal from a $45.2M outflow in FY25. Furthermore, Non-GAAP EBITDA for FY26 nearly quadrupled to $760.6M. The company is actively transitioning from a heavy capital-expenditure development phase into a harvesting phase.
Macro Backing and UA Costs
Management's FY27 guidance explicitly assumes a 'continuation of the current economic backdrop' and 'manageable mobile user acquisition costs'. While inflation and consumer affordability have been concerns in previous quarters, the 18% YoY growth in full-year GAAP net revenue indicates the consumer base is sustaining premium and recurrent spending despite macro headwinds.
Other KPIs
Stable and resilient. RCS grew 7% in Q4 and 17% for the full year. This metric—comprising virtual currency, add-on content, and in-game advertising—proves the 'forever franchise' model is working perfectly, driven by NBA 2K and GTA Online.
Slightly decelerating from $169.4M in FY25. This tight control over Capex, combined with surging Net Bookings, is the primary reason Free Cash Flow has inflected so aggressively into positive territory. FY27 Capex is guided to increase modestly to $200M to support the scale of the upcoming releases.
Guidance
Accelerating aggressively. The midpoint of $8.1B represents a 20.5% YoY growth rate over FY26's $6.72B. This is the 'new baseline' management has been promising, built entirely around the Grand Theft Auto VI launch window.
Decelerating. This is a noticeable sequential drop from Q4's $1.58B and a YoY decline compared to Q1 2026 ($1.42B). It reflects a very light release slate and a natural lull as consumers and the company prep for the massive holiday quarter.
Reversing. Turning positive for the first time in years. At the midpoint ($123M), this marks the end of the investment-heavy loss cycle that defined FY24, FY25, and FY26.
Key Questions
PC Segment Strategy
PC Net Bookings collapsed 40% year-over-year in Q4. Is this purely a release timing issue, or are you seeing structural fatigue in catalog titles like Civilization and older Borderlands iterations on PC?
GTA VI Marketing Cadence
With FY27 expected to deliver record bookings, how should we model the pacing of marketing expenses throughout the year leading up to the November 19 launch?
Mobile User Acquisition Outlook
You noted 'manageable mobile user acquisition costs' as a key assumption for FY27. If the macro environment forces a spike in digital ad rates, what levers can Zynga pull to defend its operating margins?