TC Energy (TRP) Q3 2026 earnings review
TC Energy lifts its forecast, but its 2027 growth slows
TC Energy, the Canadian gas pipeline group, earned more in every business, yet its own plan has growth slowing next year. Core profit, excluding one-offs, rose 13% on its U.S. pipelines and Ontario nuclear stake. Chief executive François Poirier raised this year's outlook, but by our math it leaves fourth-quarter profit about 4% below a year ago.
| Core profit growth at steady exchange rates | +11% +13% as reported |
|---|---|
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $0.94 $0.77 a year ago |
| Projects in early commercial talks | More than $40B more than $20B last quarter |
| 2026 core profit outlook | Raised $200M middle of the range: 9% growth |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better, because TC Energy's list of possible projects doubled and more of it became approved work. That includes Crossroads, a Midwest pipeline expansion serving power plants. One caution: beating the old outlook shows that plan was cautious, not that next year's slowdown has gone away.
The question now is whether TC Energy can approve enough new projects to reach the top of its five-year growth range. If power-plant deals arrive, growth heads toward 7%; if not, approved and pending projects support about 5%. The first power contracts, which Greg Grant expects within months, will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
TC Energy Raised Its 2026 and 2027 Targets
TC Energy runs gas pipelines across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. It tracks core profit: earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, excluding one-offs, which it calls comparable EBITDA. Chief executive François Poirier credited this year's gains to high availability, "constructive settlement outcomes" and projects finished early.
On that record, Poirier raised this year's range by $200 million and lifted next year's above the 2024 target. The U.S. pipelines did most of the work, led by ANR, a Midwest network with higher rates and new contracts.
- U.S. pipelines' core profit: up 15.6% in U.S. dollars
- ANR's core profit: up 72%
- AI tools that sell spare pipeline capacity: about $65 million of profit this year, operations chief Tina Faraca said
Why it matters: rate settlements and long contracts lock in these gains for years, so the higher ranges rest on more than one quarter. But a cold snap lifted some short-term sales this year, and the company said it also hurt its gas marketing arm.
What to watch: full-year core profit, due with fourth-quarter results. A figure at the top of the new range would show that even the raised plan left room to spare.
Early-Stage Projects Doubled to Over $40 Billion
Origination is TC Energy's list of projects in commercial talks but not yet approved. Poirier put it at more than $40 billion, up from over $20 billion three months earlier.
The pipeline group also turned talks into signed work. It approved Crossroads, a US$1.8 billion Midwest expansion "to support growing power generation demand, including data centres". In Canada it approved Coastal GasLink Phase 2, which nearly doubles its partly owned line to LNG Canada's export plant.
- Approved this year: about $6 billion, the low end of the $6–8 billion goal
- Approved projects not yet finished: $24.7 billion, up $3.3 billion since December
Why it matters: talks earn nothing, so approvals count more than the list. The weak spot is NGTL, its main Alberta network, which still lacks agreed terms for expansion after 2029. "We simply need to land on an appropriate risk-return framework," Poirier said. Operations chief Tina Faraca aims for a deal by the end of March 2027.
What to watch: projects awaiting final approval, now about $6 billion. Steady growth in that pile would show the bigger list is turning into real work.
Bruce Power Earned 47% More After Unit 3
Bruce Power is the Ontario nuclear plant in which TC Energy owns 48.3%. It rebuilds its reactors one at a time, and each rebuild takes a unit offline for years. Unit 3 came back in June "ahead of schedule and within budget", so this was its first full quarter of output.
- Bruce Power core profit: up 47%
- Power sold: up 19.8%
- Price per megawatt-hour: $118, against $111 a year ago
What to watch: Bruce Power's output in the fourth quarter, because Unit 5 left service on November 1 for its own rebuild. Greg Grant, head of the power business, said "we expect to see Unit 4 back online by the end of 2027", months ahead of plan. An early return would replace Unit 5's lost output sooner.
🐻 Bear Case
TC Energy's Own Plan Shows Fourth-Quarter Profit Falling
TC Energy called this a strong quarter and raised its range for 2026. But the new range carries a drop at the end of the year. By our math, it leaves fourth-quarter core profit near $2.86 billion, about 4% below last year.
The release lists some causes but does not add them up. Bruce Power took Unit 5 offline on November 1 for a rebuild lasting to 2030. A 20-year supply contract for the Bécancour gas plant in Quebec expired in September. The plan also assumes a U.S. dollar at 1.38 Canadian dollars, against 1.40 in the third quarter.
Why it matters: the slowdown runs into 2027. The middle of next year's range implies growth of about 4% by our math, against about 9% planned for this year. Yet the third quarter beat what the old range implied, so these plans have run cautious.
What to watch: fourth-quarter core profit, due early next year. A result close to last year's $2.96 billion would mean the 2027 range is set low as well.
Annual Spending Will Climb to $8–10 Billion
The five-year plan has TC Energy spending $8–10 billion a year from 2029, before Bruce Power returns cash in the early 2030s. The worry is whether debt stays below 4.75 times core profit, its ceiling.
Finance chief Sean O'Donnell answered it directly: "No equity, no M&A, no capital rotation needed to achieve this plan if we can deliver as expected." Poirier said "we now expect our debt-to-EBITDA to exit 2026 at 4.55x-4.6x", against 4.8 times at the end of 2025. Both are forecasts, so the quarter eases the worry without settling it.
What to watch: the debt ratio the pipeline group reports for the end of 2026. A figure inside Poirier's range would let the larger spending start without new shares.
Mexico Profit Leaned on Peso Gains
TC Energy's Mexican pipelines sell much of their capacity to the CFE, Mexico's state power company, which makes up about 32% of the group's gross credit exposure. Core profit from Mexico rose 7% in Canadian dollars, but currency did much of the work.
TGNH, the network it built with the CFE, earned 9% less "due to higher operating costs". The Sur de Texas line gained from its "peso-denominated financial exposure", swinging to a US$14 million currency gain from a US$11 million loss.
- Provision for possible CFE losses: $163 million, against $141 million in December
- CFE invoices sold to a Mexican bank since August: $84 million
What to watch: TGNH's core profit in the fourth quarter. A second drop would show that rising costs, not currency, now set the trend in Mexico.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Three standing concerns drew comments from management this quarter but no new numbers, so the quarter could not move any of them.
- Crews and equipment for a larger programme: Faraca said projects in development run about 5% under budget; costs on this year's approvals will test it once building starts.
- Data-centre policy after the U.S. midterm elections: Poirier said newly elected officials hold "pretty constructive points of view"; a delayed utility approval would move it.
- Power contracts as short as 10 years: Poirier said each deal repays its capital within the term; the first signed contract will show whether it does.
👓 Other Themes
TC Energy Lists $15 Billion of Canadian Power Projects
Greg Grant, head of the power business, now lists about $15 billion of Canadian power-plant projects in commercial talks. They would sell power under long contracts, some directly to a customer such as a data centre. Grant pointed to "potential announcements by the end of the year representing $500 million-$1 billion of incremental investment". None of these projects earns revenue yet.
Canada and Mexico Move to Speed Up Approvals
Governments in TC Energy's markets are moving to approve projects faster. In Canada, Bill C-39 could cut project timelines by one to two years, Poirier said. In Mexico, the group counts about 10 gigawatts of planned gas power plants and says it supports about three-quarters of them.
💲 Other KPIs
Comparable funds from operations, the cash the business generates before working-capital swings, rose 24.9% from a year ago. Growth has ranged from 2% to 38% over four quarters. Reported cash from operations fell 7.2%, because more money sat in working capital.
Borrowing due within a year more than doubled since December. Notes payable, short-term company paper, rose to $2.78 billion from $1.20 billion, and long-term debt due within a year reached $3.20 billion. Total reported debt grew 4.9% over the nine months.
Spending on projects took 35% of revenue, down from 41% a year ago. Nine-month spending ran 18% lower, after the Southeast Gateway pipeline and ANR projects finished in 2025. The share has moved between 28% and 39% over four quarters.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The plan now has core profit up about 9% this year. By our math, that leaves about $2.86 billion for the fourth quarter, roughly 4% below a year ago. The middle has moved twice since the first quarter, by $100 million each time.
Unchanged. TC Energy still expects profit per share, excluding one-offs, to top last year. Nine-month profit per share reached $2.88. By our math, the fourth quarter needs more than $0.63, against $0.98 a year ago, so the floor sits far below the current pace.
Unchanged range, now pointed at its lower end. Cash spending reached $3.84 billion through September, so the fourth quarter carries a large share. Construction commitments have more than doubled since December, to about $1.9 billion.
Trimmed. The group now expects about $3.4 billion of projects to start up this year, after $2.5 billion through September. That leaves about $0.9 billion for the fourth quarter, by our math. The figure has slipped from about $4.0 billion in the first plan for the year.
Raised against the 2024 target. By our math, the middle of the range implies growth of about 4% over this year's plan, roughly half this year's pace. O'Donnell named asset availability, AI and marketing gains, and project delivery as the drivers.
Raised. Net spending next year tops the earlier plan of about $6 billion a year. TC Energy also expects $4.5–5.0 billion of projects to start up in 2027, well above this year's total.
New. By our math, the middle of the range puts 2031 core profit near $15.9 billion. After the slower 2027, the remaining years would need about 6.5% a year. O'Donnell said approved and pending projects cover the low end.
❓ Key Questions
What pushes fourth-quarter profit below last year?
By our math, the raised 2026 range leaves fourth-quarter core profit about 4% under last year. The release names Unit 5's outage and an expired Quebec contract but gives no total.
Does the old 2028 target still apply?
The release dropped the $12.6–13.1 billion range for 2028 given earlier this year. The new five-year range implies a higher path, so readers need to know which one counts.
What return will NGTL expansions earn after 2029?
Faraca aims for an NGTL deal by the end of March 2027. Its return and risk terms decide whether Canadian growth can match the returns TC Energy earns in the U.S.
Why does TC Energy sell CFE invoices to a bank?
The group began selling TGNH invoices in August. The release does not say whether the CFE's payment timing prompted it, or whether the sales continue after November.
Which power projects come first, and on what terms?
Grant expects announcements within months. The first contract's length, customer and cost per dollar of profit will show whether the power list fits TC Energy's low-risk model.