SSR Mining (SSRM) Q3 2026 earnings review
SSR Mining revenue rises 16%, but mining costs break plan
High metal prices lifted SSR Mining's revenue while its mining costs broke through the ceiling of its annual plan. The gold and silver miner grew sales 16% as gold prices rose, but higher capital spending and working capital outflows left just $6 million of free cash flow. Executive chairman Rod Antal kept the full-year production plan intact, which by our math requires fourth-quarter output to jump by at least 30%.
| Gold equivalent sales (at constant 2025 ratio) | -5% reported +2% on new 63:1 silver ratio |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $448M +16% from a year ago on +21% gold price |
| All-in sustaining cost per ounce | $2,527/oz +20% from a year ago |
| Full-year cost outlook | Raised ~10% above the prior $2,260/oz ceiling |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because management gave up on its full-year cost ceiling and pushed almost the entire production step-up into the final three months. Delaying lower-cost stockpiled ore at Puna, higher royalties and fuel inflation will push full-year costs about 10% above the old top end. On the bright side, the company finished its exit from Türkiye, shrank its diluted share count by 6% through buybacks, and expanded its Nevada reserve life.
The question now is whether the Marigold mine in Nevada can release enough gold from its leach pads to hit the fourth-quarter target. Either recent pump upgrades and richer ore stacked in the third quarter drive a record fourth-quarter pour, or slow recovery leaves full-year production short of the plan. Fourth-quarter production results in February will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Buybacks and Türkiye Exit Reshape the Balance Sheet
SSR Mining finished its exit from Türkiye on July 17, selling its 20% stake in the Hod Maden project for a 4% royalty on future metal sales. Following the second-quarter sale of its Çöpler mine, the Denver-based miner holds $1.55 billion in cash and no long-term debt. Management used that cash pile to buy back 6.2 million shares for $193.6 million during the third quarter.
Earlier in the year, share repurchases merely offset the 13.1 million shares issued when the company retired its convertible debt. Now the share count is shrinking: diluted shares fell 6.2% from a year ago to 204.1 million, and nine-month buybacks passed $530 million alongside a $0.03 quarterly dividend. What to watch: fourth-quarter share repurchases, because steady buying will show whether management prioritizes buybacks over cash acquisitions.
Nevada Deals Expand Long-Term US Gold Reserves
With its Turkish mines gone, SSR Mining is rebuilding around Nevada and Colorado, though critics worry that buying assets during a gold boom risks overpaying. On October 13, the miner published a new 20-year mine plan for Marigold, its main Nevada operation, showing 4.6 million ounces of gold reserves and a "more than 50% increase in total gold production over the prior life of mine plan".
On the same day, the company agreed to buy Roxmore Resources for cash, adding the adjacent Converse project with "potential to add 150,000 to 170,000 ounces of annual gold production" starting in 2033. That fulfills its promise to extend mine lives, though the release did not state the purchase price. What to watch: the Roxmore price in the quarterly filing, which will show whether management overpaid at peak gold prices.
Seabee Grade Rebound Offsets Scheduled Plant Downtime
Underground gold grades at the Seabee mine in Canada have swung widely over the past year, making the site a recurring operational headache. In the third quarter, the miner completed plant maintenance that it had delayed from the second quarter, yet gold production still jumped 74.9% from a year ago to 15,949 ounces because the gold grade fed into the mill nearly doubled.
Mill feed grade reached 6.72 grams per tonne against 3.46 a year earlier, pulling Seabee's all-in sustaining cost (AISC), a measure of total ongoing mining expenses, down 30.3% to $2,094 per ounce. One good quarter eases the grade concern without settling it, as nine-month output remains down 15.3%. What to watch: fourth-quarter output at Seabee, which needs 20,948 ounces to reach the bottom of its 60,000-ounce annual plan.
🐻 Bear Case
Mining Costs Break the Full-Year Ceiling
For two quarters, management said full-year all-in sustaining costs (AISC), which combine direct mining expenses, royalties, corporate overhead and sustaining capital, would land near the top of its $2,180 to $2,260 per ounce plan. In the third quarter,SSR Mining abandoned that ceiling, stating that full-year AISC is now "trending approximately 10% above the upper end of the Company’s 2026 guidance".
- Third-quarter AISC: $2,527 per gold equivalent ounce, up 19.5% from a year ago
- Effective full-year AISC target: about $2,486 per ounce by our math, up $226 from the old ceiling
- Puna silver AISC: $25.64 per ounce, up 89.4% from a year ago
- Constant-ratio volume: gold equivalent ounces sold fell 5.0% from a year ago by our math
At Puna in Argentina, the miner found more ore and changed its schedule, a "resequencing that defers lower-cost production from stockpiled ore that was planned to be processed in 2026". Higher royalties from record metal prices, diesel costs and labor inflation also pushed expenses up, while a new 63-to-1 silver-to-gold conversion ratio masked a 5.0% drop in underlying sales volume. What to watch: 2027 cost targets in February, which will show whether these higher costs are permanent.
Fourth-Quarter Production Must Jump 71% at Midpoint
SSR Mining kept its full-year target of 450,000 to 535,000 gold equivalent ounces, which combines gold and silver into one measure. Because the company produced only 103,585 ounces in the third quarter and 315,459 ounces over the first nine months, the fourth quarter must carry almost the entire second-half step-up.
By our math, reaching the middle of the annual plan requires 177,041 ounces in the fourth quarter, a 70.9% jump from the third quarter, while even the bottom of the range requires 134,541 ounces, or 29.9% more. The bottleneck is Marigold, which produced 29,135 ounces in the third quarter—down 19.7% from a year ago—and needs 72,075 ounces in the fourth quarter just to hit its 170,000-ounce floor.
The company did stack higher-grade ore at Marigold (0.41 grams per tonne vs 0.28 in the second quarter), lifting gold placed on the pads by 22.0% to about 47,500 ounces by our math. Still, the fourth-quarter target relies on "recent completion of pumping upgrades driving increased leach pad solution flows, the stacking of higher-grade ore directly on liner at heap leach cell 23B, and planned inventory drawdown through the quarter". What to watch: fourth-quarter Marigold production, where anything under 72,075 ounces misses the annual site target.
Taxes and Capital Spending Wipe Out Free Cash Flow
"Although costs are trending approximately 10% above the top end of our original guidance ranges, we expect robust free cash flow into year-end," executive chairman Rod Antal said. Yet third-quarter free cash flow from continuing operations—operating cash flow minus capital spending—fell 91.0% from a year ago to $5.8 million, or just 1.3% of revenue, even though realized gold prices rose 21.2% to $4,247 per ounce.
Two cash drains absorbed the higher metal prices: capital spending more than doubled to $100.2 million (22.4% of revenue), and working capital—cash tied up in day-to-day operations and tax payments—took out $104.9 million. Operating profit also fell 2.2% to $122.1 million as expenses outside direct mining costs jumped 6.2 percentage points of revenue, hit by $43.5 million for "revisions in cost estimate assumptions associated with water management and tailings storage facilities at Puna". What to watch: fourth-quarter working capital, which must release cash as leach pads draw down.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Four standing operational and legal risks received no updated figures in the third-quarter earnings release because management reserves those details for the quarterly filing and conference call.
- Recoverable gold ounces on leach pads: not in the release; the quarterly filing's inventory footnote will show how much pad value is metal versus cost inflation.
- 2027 diesel hedging: current hedges covering about 70% of US fuel use expire at year-end, and the release gave no 2027 hedge update.
- CC&V Carlton Tunnel liability and Amendment 14 permit: no update on how environmental remediation costs are shared with Newmont.
- Çöpler securities lawsuits: class actions in the US and Canada remain pending without a recorded liability.
💲 Other KPIs
Realized gold prices rose 21.2% from $3,503 a year ago, but stepped down 1.3% from $4,301 in the second quarter and 11.0% from $4,770 in the first quarter. Silver prices followed the same path, rising 39.3% from a year ago to $58.39 per ounce while falling 21.3% from last quarter. Higher metal prices drove the entire 16.0% revenue increase.
Working capital—short-term assets like cash and inventory minus short-term bills—more than tripled from $668.9 million at the end of 2025 after the Çöpler sale brought in roughly $1.5 billion. During the third quarter, working capital dipped 5.5% from $2.22 billion in June as SSR Mining spent $193.6 million on share buybacks and $100.2 million on capital projects.
Gold output at Cripple Creek & Victor in Colorado rose 5.9% from a year ago and 13.9% from the second quarter. Over the first nine months, the mine produced 97,590 ounces, putting it 78.1% of the way to the bottom of its 125,000 to 150,000 ounce annual plan and ahead of the company's other gold mines.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The plan still calls for about 10.1% growth at the middle of the range compared with 2025. By our math, that leaves 177,041 ounces for the fourth quarter at the middle of the range (up 47.2% from a year ago) and 134,541 ounces to reach the bottom. Last year the miner beat its initial midpoint by 0.5%, so the low end looks reachable if Marigold's leach pads release gold on schedule.
Raised. Management kept the original table at $2,180 to $2,260 per ounce but warned that full-year costs are trending about 10% above the $2,260 top end, or roughly $2,486 per ounce by our math. That implies fourth-quarter AISC of about $2,419 per ounce, down from $2,527 in the third quarter on higher fourth-quarter volume. It is the second consecutive quarter management has pushed cost expectations higher ($2,220 midpoint, then $2,260 top end, now ~$2,486).
Unchanged in the outlook table, though executive chairman Rod Antal noted that overall costs are trending about 10% above original ranges. Nine-month cost of sales is already $1,751 per ounce ($1,755 in the third quarter). By our math, hitting the $1,640 top end of the table would require fourth-quarter cost of sales to drop to $1,440 per ounce, whereas a 10% overrun above the top end ($1,804) leaves room for $1,900 in the fourth quarter.
Unchanged. With 5.10 million ounces produced in the first nine months, the Argentine mine needs 1.15 million to 1.90 million ounces in the fourth quarter by our math, compared with 1.70 million in the third quarter. Even though SSR Mining deferred lower-cost stockpiled ore into future years, the third-quarter pace is already strong enough to reach the middle of the annual silver target.
❓ Key Questions
How much is SSR Mining paying for Roxmore Resources?
The company announced an all-cash deal for Roxmore and its Converse project in Nevada on October 13, but the third-quarter release did not state the dollar price. Investors need the purchase price to judge whether management is overpaying for ounces at peak gold prices.
How many recoverable gold ounces sit on Marigold's leach pads?
Marigold must produce at least 72,075 ounces in the fourth quarter—more than double its third-quarter output—to reach the bottom of its annual plan. Without the ounce balance on the pads, outside readers cannot separate real metal inventory from unit-cost inflation.
What triggered the $43.5 million Puna water and tailings charge?
SSR Mining booked a $43.5 million reclamation expense at Puna in the third quarter for water management and tailings storage estimates. Because the company is actively trying to extend Puna's mine life, investors need to know when that cash will be spent.
Has the company locked in diesel prices for 2027?
Persistent diesel price pressure helped push 2026 costs 10% above the top of the plan, even with roughly 70% of US fuel hedged this year. When those hedges roll off at the end of 2026, fuel sensitivity will increase unless new contracts are signed.