SSR Mining (SSRM) Q4 2025 earnings review
Record Reserves and Buybacks mask Rising Cost Profile
SSR Mining finished 2025 with strong momentum, generating $106M in Free Cash Flow in Q4 alone—nearly 44% of the full-year total. The integration of Cripple Creek & Victor (CC&V) and the inclusion of Hod Maden drove a massive 40% YoY increase in Mineral Reserves to 11.0 million GEOs. While the company announced a $300M buyback and guides for 10% production growth in 2026, the outlook is tempered by significantly rising costs. 2026 AISC guidance implies a ~10-13% cost increase vs 2025 levels, indicating margin compression despite higher volumes.
🐂 Bull Case
Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves jumped 40% YoY to 11.0 million gold equivalent ounces (GEOs), driven by the addition of CC&V and Hod Maden. M&I Resources grew 82%, securing long-term mine life visibility.
After a mixed year, Q4 generated $106.4M in Free Cash Flow. With $535M in cash and a new $300M buyback program, the capital return story is accelerating.
🐻 Bear Case
2026 Guidance forecasts AISC of $2,360–$2,440/oz, a sharp increase from the $2,153/oz achieved in FY25 and $1,878/oz in FY24. Margins are being squeezed despite production growth.
Seabee production collapsed 68% YoY in Q4 (8,869 oz vs 27,811 oz), with costs blowing out to $3,433/oz AISC. The asset is undergoing a difficult reset with winter road costs looming in Q1.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. The 40% reserve increase and immediate $300M capital return program outweigh the cost inflation concerns. The business has successfully pivoted away from reliance on Çöpler, with CC&V proving to be a cash cow.
Key Themes
Reserves & Resources Step-Change
The reserve base has been transformed. Total P&P Reserves hit 11.0 Moz (+38% YoY), and M&I Resources leaped 82% to 9.5 Moz. This was driven by the integration of CC&V and Hod Maden, plus higher price assumptions ($1,700/oz gold vs $1,500/oz prior). This re-rates the company's asset longevity.
2026 Cost Escalation
While production is guided up 10%, the cost to produce that ounce is rising faster. FY26 AISC guidance is set at $2,360–$2,440/oz. This compares poorly to the FY25 actual of $2,153/oz. The drivers are sustaining capital at Marigold (leach pad expansions) and winter road costs at Seabee.
Hod Maden Value Confirmation
The updated Technical Report for Hod Maden (released Jan 2026) outlines a $1.7B NPV (5%) with a 39% IRR. With $33.8M spent in Q4 on early works, this project is moving toward a construction decision. It represents the next major leg of growth, independent of the Çöpler restart.
Seabee Operational Collapse
Seabee is currently a drag on the portfolio. Q4 production fell to 8,869 oz (down from 27,811 oz in 24Q4) due to a strategic shift to underground development and forest fire impacts earlier in the year. Costs skyrocketed to $3,433/oz in Q4. While 2026 guidance suggests recovery to 60-70koz, Q1 2026 will likely remain high-cost due to winter road spend.
Çöpler Remediation Costs
The company spent $7.4M on Çöpler remediation in Q4, bringing the full-year total to $21.7M. Since Feb 2024, total spend is $149.3M. While the facility is excluded from 2026 production guidance, it remains a cash drain with forecasted Care & Maintenance costs of $80-$100M for 2026.
CC&V Performance
Cripple Creek & Victor is performing exceptionally well post-acquisition. It produced 124,557 oz in the 10 months of ownership (beating expectations). It generated over $200M in mine site free cash flow since acquisition—remarkably high given the $275M total consideration. It has effectively already paid for itself.
Other KPIs
Accelerating. Up significantly from $323M in the prior year period (+61%) and up sequentially from $385M in Q3, driven by CC&V contribution and higher gold prices ($2,603/oz realized vs $1,976/oz prior year).
Reversing. A massive swing to profitability compared to the $5.6M in 24Q4 and the loss in early 2025. EPS came in at $0.84/share, signaling the stabilization of the business post-Çöpler incident.
Accelerating. Up 81% YoY from $95M in 24Q4. This robust cash generation supported the authorization of the $300M share buyback program.
Guidance
Accelerating. The midpoint represents a 10% increase over 2025 actual production of 447koz. Growth is driven by Marigold (170-200koz) and a full year of CC&V contribution.
Decelerating/Deteriorating. Costs are rising significantly compared to 2025 actuals ($2,153). Management cites sustaining capital outlays (weighted to H1) and inflationary pressures. Excluding Çöpler C&M, AISC is still high at $2,180-$2,260.
Stable. Investment continues in Marigold leach pads ($48M) and CC&V ($55M). Notably, Hod Maden capital is capped at $15M/month until a formal construction decision is made.
Key Questions
Cost Control Levers
With 2026 AISC guided ~10% higher than 2025 actuals, what specific levers does management have to mitigate these increases, particularly at Marigold and Seabee?
Seabee Recovery Timeline
Given the collapse in Q4 production and margins at Seabee, how confident is management in the 60-70koz guidance for 2026, and is the asset at risk of impairment if grades do not normalize?
Hod Maden Funding
With a construction decision looming and a $1.7B NPV project, how does the $300M buyback influence the financing strategy for Hod Maden's substantial capex requirements?