Spire Global (SPIR) Q3 2026 earnings review
Spire Global rebuilds its contract backlog, but cuts 2026 targets
Spire Global, a provider of satellite weather and tracking data, rebuilt its contract backlog while lowering its 2026 targets. Sales from continuing businesses jumped 77% to $18 million against an easy comparison, and operating cash burn fell by four-fifths to $5 million. Chief executive Theresa Condor announced $61 million in US weather contracts that lifted backlog to $175 million, yet Spire cut its full-year profit outlook and by our math needs a 42% sales jump in the fourth quarter.
| Sales excluding divested maritime unit | $18.0M +77% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Contracted backlog (RPO) | $175.4M up from $134.5M last quarter |
| Cash used in operations | $5.0M down 79% from last quarter |
| Full-year 2026 outlook | Cut revenue top end -$5M; Adjusted EBITDA -$6.6M at middle |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because new multi-year contracts and lower cash burn offset the cut to this year's outlook. Winning the weather awards reversed three quarters of shrinking backlog and allowed Spire to set a 2027 sales target of about $101 million at the middle of the range. The bad news: third-quarter sales did not grow from the second quarter, forcing Spire to widen its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss target and drop its per-share loss forecast.
The question now is whether Spire can deliver the steep fourth-quarter ramp its lowered 2026 plan still requires. Either newly launched satellites begin generating data revenue right away, or government milestone delays force another fourth-quarter shortfall like last year. Fourth-quarter revenue and Adjusted EBITDA will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Two Weather Contracts Rebuild the Backlog
Spire's remaining performance obligations (RPO), which measure contracted sales not yet recognized as revenue, had fallen for three quarters to $134.5 million in June. Chief executive Theresa Condor said new multi-year awards "give us greater revenue visibility into 2027 and beyond."
The satellite operator signed two deals with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that added $40.9 million to its backlog by our math, lifting RPO to $175.4 million. It won a two-year, $33.2 million order for radio occultation weather data starting in December, plus a two-year, $28 million contract to "advance hyperspectral microwave sounding technology toward operational use for weather forecasting."
These wins matter because they reverse the backlog decline and underpin Spire's initial 2027 sales plan of $96 million to $106 million. The radio occultation deal also averages $16.6 million a year by our math, beating last year's $11.2 million contract.
What to watch: the 12-month portion of RPO in the third-quarter filing. A figure above June's $51.4 million would confirm that the new contracts cover next year's revenue plan.
Core Sales Accelerated and Gross Margin Recovered
Spire sold its maritime ship-tracking business in April 2025, leaving weather data, aviation tracking, and space services as its core operations. Sales from those continuing businesses rose 77% from a year ago to $18.0 million, up from 16% growth in the second quarter, as last year's comparison was depressed by contract delays.
- Gross margin excluding one-offs: 49%, up 8 percentage points from a year ago and 11 points from last quarter
- Cost of revenue: 53.9% of sales, down 9.5 percentage points from a year ago by our math
- Radio frequency geolocation (RFGL, which tracks signal sources from orbit): two US and three international orders signed
- US production: launched the first three satellites built in Boulder, Colorado, "expanding Spire's U.S. manufacturing footprint to meet growing national security demand"
The gross margin rebound shows that second-quarter costs from a cancelled Canadian wildfire contract did not repeat. Still, the release gave no update on European partnerships in Munich or the percentage of this year's sales plan already under contract.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gross margin excluding one-offs. Holding near 49% would keep Spire on track toward its long-term target of 60% to 70%.
Operating Cash Burn Dropped by Four-Fifths
High cash consumption has been one of Spire's biggest risks, forcing the Virginia-based company to issue stock in both 2025 and April 2026. This quarter, cash used in operating activities dropped 79% from the second quarter to $5.0 million, and fell 59% from $12.0 million a year ago.
Spire credited "disciplined management of cash and working capital" and said operating cash usage will improve again in the fourth quarter. After $8.9 million in capital spending on satellite and ground hardware, free cash flow burn narrowed to $13.9 million from $28.8 million last quarter. That left $78.0 million in cash and marketable securities with no debt.
One quarter eases the immediate liquidity pressure, but does not settle the concern while free cash flow remains negative.
What to watch: whether third-quarter cash flow included collecting the $12.4 million NorthStar arbitration award, which the quarterly filing will disclose. A one-time legal payout would mean underlying working capital burned more cash than the headline suggests.
🐻 Bear Case
Spire Cut Its 2026 Profit and Sales Plan
"Spire is entering a new phase of execution, and this quarter’s core business growth and major contract wins demonstrate our strong momentum," Condor said. Yet after holding its full-year targets steady for three straight quarters, the company lowered both its revenue and profit outlook for 2026.
Spire trimmed the top end of its 2026 revenue plan by $5 million, bringing the middle of the range down from $80.0 million to $77.5 million. More importantly, it lowered its full-year Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and one-offs) target by $6.6 million at the middle of the range, to a loss of $29.9 million from a prior loss target of $23.4 million.
This cut matters because third-quarter revenue of $18.0 million did not step up from the second quarter's $18.05 million as management had previously anticipated. Slower satellite revenue conversion during the summer pushed profit improvement further out.
What to watch: whether Spire achieves Adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the fourth quarter or first quarter of 2027. Another delay would repeat a two-year pattern of slipping profit timelines.
The Fourth Quarter Still Carries a Steep Ramp
Spire's annual plans have repeatedly relied on a large fourth-quarter jump that depends on government contract timing. Last year, that setup ended in a steep autumn outlook cut when government work shifted.
- Fourth-quarter revenue implied by the 2026 plan: $25.6 million at the middle of the range, up 42% from the third quarter by our math
- Fourth-quarter core revenue growth implied by the plan: 85% from a year ago by our math
- Fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA implied by the plan: a loss of $2.5 million at the middle of the range, compared with an $8.6 million loss in the third quarter
Even after trimming the full-year ceiling, Spire needs to add $7.6 million in quarterly sales over the next three months, and let 80% of that extra revenue flow directly into Adjusted EBITDA by our math. The new NOAA radio occultation order does not begin performance until December 1, leaving only one month of contribution in 2026.
What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue against the implied $23.1 million to $28.1 million range. Falling short of the bottom end would show that milestone deliveries slipped into 2027.
Legal Bills Keep Draining Cash and Hid the Loss
Spire continues to pay heavy bills for an accounting restatement, a July 2025 subpoena from the Securities and Exchange Commission, and a customer dispute. General and administrative overhead rose to $15.7 million (87.4% of revenue) from $13.8 million a year ago.
Those overhead costs included $4.6 million in legal, accounting, and professional fees that Spire strips out of Adjusted EBITDA as unusual items, bringing the nine-month exclusion to $12.6 million. At the same time, Spire stopped giving a full-year outlook for operating loss and net loss per share excluding one-offs, saying revenue and Adjusted EBITDA are "more useful measures for investors in assessing Spire's expected operating performance and progress toward profitability."
Dropping those two metrics removes targets for depreciation and per-share dilution just as depreciation rose 55% from a year ago to $4.0 million.
What to watch: unusual legal and professional fees in the fourth quarter. A drop below $2 million would show that the SEC subpoena and restatement work are finally winding down.
👓 Other Themes
US Weather Agency Drives the New Contract Wave
Spire's commercial recovery leans heavily on US federal appropriations, particularly at NOAA, which awarded $61.2 million in combined contracts during the third quarter. The satellite operator cautioned that government funding disruptions, geopolitical instability, and tariffs remain key operating risks. While sovereign defense demand in the US and Europe is supporting new satellite orders, concentration with US agencies leaves quarterly revenue sensitive to federal budget schedules.
💲 Other KPIs
Contract liabilities — cash billed or collected for services not yet delivered — edged down 9.0% since December to $44.9 million by our math. Meanwhile, contract assets — revenue recognized for milestone work before Spire bills the customer — more than tripled from $1.8 million at year-end to $6.2 million as government satellite builds progressed.
Weighted-average diluted shares rose 20.5% from a year ago and 2.3% from the second quarter by our math. The increase stems from Spire's April 2026 stock sale, which raised $65.4 million in net proceeds to fund working capital, alongside ongoing employee option exercises.
Purchases of property and equipment rose 6.5% from a year ago and jumped 64.0% from the second quarter's $5.5 million, consuming 49.7% of third-quarter revenue by our math. That brings nine-month capital spending to $22.4 million, leaving $4.6 million for the fourth quarter if Spire holds to the $27 million annual budget discussed last quarter.
🔮 Guidance
Cut. The top end of the plan came down by $5.0 million, lowering the middle of the range to $77.5 million, or 8.3% total growth for the year by our math. After holding the range at $75 million to $85 million for three quarters, the trim leaves $25.6 million for the fourth quarter by our math, a 61.9% jump from a year ago.
Cut. With residual maritime sales still set at $3.4 million for the year, the core revenue ceiling dropped by $5.0 million to a middle point of $74.1 million (46.5% growth from 2025 by our math). By our math, that leaves $25.6 million of core sales for the fourth quarter, up 85.5% from a year ago and 42.3% above the third quarter.
Cut. Spire widened its expected full-year Adjusted EBITDA loss by $6.55 million at the middle of the range, to $(29.9) million, after keeping it at $(23.35) million for three quarters. With $(27.4) million already lost in the first nine months, the plan leaves a $(2.5) million loss for the fourth quarter by our math, a 71% improvement from the third quarter.
New. Spire issued a preliminary 2027 revenue forecast with a middle point of $101.0 million, representing 30.3% growth over the updated 2026 total revenue midpoint by our math. Compared against 2026 core revenue excluding the sold maritime business, the 2027 plan points to 36.3% underlying growth by our math, supported by the new multi-year NOAA contracts.
❓ Key Questions
Did the NorthStar award boost third-quarter operating cash flow?
Operating cash burn fell by $18.4 million from the second quarter. Investors need to know whether Spire collected the $12.4 million NorthStar arbitration award during the period, or if the improvement came entirely from regular customer collections.
Why did Spire drop its operating loss and EPS targets?
Removing non-GAAP operating loss and per-share loss from the outlook hides the impact of rising satellite depreciation ($14.0 million expected for 2026) and the 20.5% jump in share count.
What caused the $6.6 million cut to 2026 Adjusted EBITDA?
Spire cut its full-year revenue midpoint by $2.5 million, but widened its Adjusted EBITDA loss midpoint by $6.55 million. Management did not explain why the profit target fell by more than twice the revenue reduction.
How much of the $175.4 million backlog converts within 12 months?
The press release gave total remaining performance obligations, but the 12-month conversion figure only appears in the quarterly filing. That number will show how much of the $96 million to $106 million 2027 plan is already locked in.