S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 2026 earnings review
S&P Global raises its 2026 outlook and reviews Capital IQ
S&P Global is leaning harder into credit ratings and market benchmarks while preparing to part with its flagship Capital IQ desktop business. Third-quarter revenue rose 7% to $3.68 billion as a 20% jump in Indices made up for bond-rating growth slowing to 2%. Chief executive Martina Cheung raised the full-year revenue and adjusted profit outlook, though by our math the plan still implies fourth-quarter revenue growth slows to about 3%.
| Sales from businesses owned a year ago | +7% in constant currency ($3,629M) |
|---|---|
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $4.58 +9% from a year ago |
| Indices revenue | $554M +20% from a year ago |
| Full-year revenue outlook | Raised 1 pt middle of the range: 7.9% growth |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because management raised the full-year outlook, Energy rebounded to 6% growth, and a potential Capital IQ separation would remove the company's lowest-margin business. One caution: putting Capital IQ under review after its division grew subscription sales by 6% concedes that artificial intelligence is pressuring traditional financial desktops and that fixing it requires dedicated outside investment.
The question now is whether shedding Capital IQ leaves S&P Global as a faster, higher-margin benchmark business or strips away the data platform needed to sell artificial intelligence tools to Wall Street. If S&P Global keeps the high-growth data feeds and sheds only the slow desktop, both growth and margins improve; if the whole unit goes, the company becomes even more dependent on debt and stock market cycles. The perimeter details on the conference call and fourth-quarter bond issuance will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
S&P Global Puts Capital IQ Up for Separation
Just three months after spinning off its automotive unit Mobility Global, the financial data provider is preparing another major breakup. S&P Global said it "has initiated a strategic review of alternatives, including potential separation, for Capital IQ and associated data businesses, which constitute the majority of Kensho Data & Platforms within Market Intelligence." Capital IQ is the company's flagship desktop and financial database for Wall Street analysts.
The company plans to keep Enterprise Solutions and its credit tools, RatingsDirect and RatingsXpress. Removing Capital IQ would shrink Market Intelligence, which has the lowest operating margin of the four divisions at 36% excluding one-offs, and leave S&P Global even more concentrated in high-margin credit ratings and benchmarks. Chief executive Martina Cheung said the review reflects a commitment to "prioritizing our investments where we’re strongest."
What to watch: the exact revenue and profit perimeter of the Capital IQ businesses on the conference call. A separation of the entire Kensho Data & Platforms line would remove more than half of Market Intelligence's revenue and lift the remaining company's profit margin.
Indices Carries Growth and Lifts the Full-Year Plan
Indices, which licenses stock market benchmarks like the S&P 500 to fund managers and exchanges, carried the third quarter. While bond-rating growth slowed down, rising stock markets and trading volumes pushed Indices revenue up 20% from a year ago. Because running an index costs almost the same regardless of how much money tracks it, most of the extra revenue turned straight into profit.
- Indices revenue: $554 million, up 20% from a year ago
- Asset-linked fees (charged on funds tracking S&P indices): $375 million, up 24%
- Sales usage-based royalties (from exchange-traded derivatives): $92 million, up 19%
- Indices operating margin excluding one-offs: 72%, up 2 percentage points
Company-wide expenses excluding one-offs fell by 0.6 percentage points of revenue to 46.5%, helped by a 41% drop in unallocated corporate overhead. That performance allowed S&P Global to raise its full-year revenue growth outlook by 1.5 percentage points, "driven by higher expected revenue from the Ratings and Indices divisions."
What to watch: fourth-quarter exchange-traded fund assets and derivative volumes. Because the raised full-year outlook implies total revenue growth slows to about 3.4% in the fourth quarter by our math, steady market levels would produce another beat.
Energy Rebounds to 6% Growth After Q2 Stall
Energy, which provides Platts commodity price benchmarks and CERA energy research, had been a standing concern after Middle East conflict concessions and sanctions slowed its recast growth to about 3% last quarter. Management kept its 4.5% to 6% full-year underlying growth outlook unchanged in July, which required a second-half rebound.
The division delivered that rebound in the third quarter. Sales from businesses owned a year ago in constant currency rose 6% to $622 million, while transaction sales jumped 37% to $31 million. Energy also booked a $200 million pre-tax gain from selling businesses, likely including its upstream software portfolio, while operating profit excluding one-offs rose 10% to $310 million.
What to watch: fourth-quarter Energy subscription growth, which ran at 5% this quarter. One rebound quarter eases the concern, but Energy needs a similar fourth quarter to finish inside its full-year target.
Buybacks Hit $2.6 Billion in Q3 Alone
S&P Global pledged last quarter to spend more than $7 billion on share buybacks in 2026, using cash from the Mobility spin-off and new borrowing. After buying back $1.5 billion in the first half of the year, the company accelerated its purchases to $2.6 billion in the third quarter, bringing the nine-month total to $4.1 billion.
Those purchases lowered the diluted share count by 4.2% from a year ago to 291.6 million shares. Because a higher tax rate held profit growth excluding one-offs to 4%, the lower share count did the heavy lifting, turning 4% profit growth into 9% growth in profit per share.
What to watch: fourth-quarter share repurchases, which must reach roughly $3 billion over the final three months for the company to meet its full-year pledge of more than $7 billion.
Positives This Quarter Didn't Test
Three standing growth and cost drivers from prior quarters had no updated figures in the third-quarter earnings release.
- Private-markets revenue: grew 60% in Ratings last quarter, but the release does not break out third-quarter private-market sales.
- Tech-giant bond issuance: hyperscaler debt sales reached $169 billion in the first half against a $250–300 billion full-year assumption; the release does not state the third-quarter figure.
- Enterprise Data Office savings: had reached nearly 60% of its $100 million annual target by mid-year; no new progress figure appeared in the release.
🐻 Bear Case
Ratings Growth Slowed to 2% on Tough Comparisons
Ratings, which charges fees to grade corporate and government bonds, is S&P Global's largest profit generator. After growing revenue 17% in the second quarter against an easy comparison from a year ago, the division hit the harder second-half comparisons that management had warned about.
- Ratings total revenue: $1,271 million, up 2% from a year ago (3% in constant currency)
- Ratings transaction revenue (fees on new bond sales): $677 million, up 1% vs 20% in the first half
- Ratings non-transaction revenue (surveillance and annual fees): $594 million, up 4%
- Ratings operating profit excluding one-offs: $835 million, flat from a year ago, as expenses rose 7% to $436 million
Because expenses in Ratings grew faster than sales, the division's operating margin excluding one-offs slipped by 1 percentage point to 66%. Even though management cited Ratings as a reason for raising the full-year outlook, the third quarter shows how quickly profit stalls when bond issuance levels off.
What to watch: fourth-quarter billed bond issuance against last year's 28% jump. A drop in fourth-quarter issuance would pull Ratings revenue below last year's level.
Reviewing Capital IQ Concedes the Platform Drag
"The businesses that are part of the strategic review are strong and have significant opportunities ahead of them as technology changes how customers access, analyze, and use information," chief executive Martina Cheung said. Yet S&P Global also stated that "we believe separate ownership could provide dedicated investment and focus, positioning these businesses to accelerate innovation and growth."
Putting Capital IQ and its associated data businesses up for separation cuts against the claim that they are thriving inside S&P Global. For four quarters, the concern has been that artificial intelligence tools let customers pull raw data directly, bypassing desktop workflow software like Capital IQ. Market Intelligence subscription revenue grew 6% in the third quarter, the same pace as the first half, showing no acceleration before management decided to shop the unit.
What to watch: standalone revenue growth for Kensho Data versus the Capital IQ platform on the call. If Capital IQ growth is in the low single digits, buyers may offer a lower price or leave S&P Global holding the unit.
Risks This Quarter Didn't Answer
Several standing risks and watch items cannot be checked from the earnings release alone because the company reports them on the call or in the quarterly filing.
- Sub-segment revenue splits: the release omits the breakdown between Kensho Data & Platforms and Enterprise Solutions in Market Intelligence, and between Platts and CERA in Energy.
- Market Intelligence contract value (ACV) growth and AI customer counts: management did not print ACV growth or the number of customers using its language-model data feeds in the release.
- Billed bond issuance and debt leverage: total debt stood at $13.06 billion ($2.45 billion short-term) with $2.44 billion in cash, but the release does not give the updated gross leverage ratio or third-quarter billed issuance.
👓 Other Themes
Mobility Spin-Off Moves to Discontinued Operations
S&P Global completed the separation of its automotive data unit, Mobility Global, on July 1, 2026. The company received $1.97 billion in debt proceeds tied to the spin-off, transferred $198 million in cash, and moved Mobility into discontinued operations across all historical tables, booking a $58 million after-tax loss from discontinued operations in the third quarter.
💲 Other KPIs
Unearned revenue — cash collected from customers for subscriptions not yet delivered — fell 4.1% from $3,929 million last quarter and sits 6.1% below the $4,010 million year-end balance. While part of the drop is seasonal billing cadence, the contracted backlog continues to trail the 7% growth in reported revenue.
Nine-month free cash flow rose 11.8% from a year ago, or 10.1% to $3,510 million excluding one-off separation and legal payments. By our math, subtracting first-half results leaves third-quarter free cash flow of $1,050 million, up 27.4% from a year ago on higher operating profit and lower capital spending.
The tax rate excluding one-offs rose 1.9 percentage points from 21.2% a year ago, following a low 19.8% rate in the second quarter. That jump added $66 million to the adjusted tax bill and trimmed third-quarter profit growth by about 2 percentage points, bringing the nine-month tax rate to 22.0%.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. S&P Global lifted the bottom of the range by 1.5 percentage points and the top by 0.5 points, putting the middle of the range at 7.9% growth. Because revenue grew 9.5% over the first nine months, by our math the updated outlook still points to growth slowing to about 3.4% in the fourth quarter against a tough comparison.
Raised. Management increased the range by 1.5 percentage points at the bottom and 0.5 points at the top, lifting the middle of the range from 7.0% to 8.0% after holding it at 7.0% for three straight quarters. The company credited higher expected sales in Ratings and Indices.
Raised. The credit and index group lifted its full-year profit per share target by $0.20 across the range. With $13.86 already earned in the first nine months, by our math the plan leaves $3.97 at the middle of the range for the fourth quarter, down 13% from the third quarter's $4.58.
Cut. The reported profit per share plan came down by $0.10 across the range. The US data provider said adjustments to expected gains on business sales reduced the GAAP number, partially offset by stronger revenue growth.
Raised. The company lifted its margin expansion target by 0.4 percentage points, and raised the target excluding the sold OSTTRA joint venture from 75–100 basis points to 125–150 basis points. Nine-month operating margin excluding one-offs is already up about 1.3 percentage points from a year ago.
Cut. The reported margin expansion target fell by 0.25 percentage points because of changes to expected gains on asset sales.
Cut. Expected unallocated corporate overhead dropped by $20 million on a reported basis and $25 million excluding one-offs, after third-quarter adjusted corporate costs fell 41% to $31 million.
Raised. Amortization of acquisition intangibles moved up by about $15 million, reflecting recent acquisitions.
Raised. Net interest cost increased by $10 million at the middle of both ranges as the group carries higher debt to fund share buybacks.
Unchanged. Both the reported and adjusted tax rate targets remain at 22% to 23%, matching the 22.0% adjusted rate recorded over the first nine months.
Cut. Planned capital spending fell by $40 million at the middle of the range after the company spent $93 million over the first nine months.
Unchanged. Management kept its pledge to buy back over $7 billion in stock this year, leaving roughly $3 billion to execute in the fourth quarter.
❓ Key Questions
How much revenue and profit sits inside Capital IQ?
S&P Global said the strategic review covers the majority of Kensho Data & Platforms, which generated $753 million of revenue in the second quarter. Investors need the exact revenue, margin, and organic growth rate of the businesses on the block.
Will S&P Global keep Kensho's AI tools if Capital IQ leaves?
Management previously pitched Kensho's artificial intelligence feeds as the growth engine inside Market Intelligence. The release does not clarify whether the AI data feeds stay with S&P Global or leave with the Capital IQ desktop.
What was third-quarter billed bond issuance and tech borrowing?
Ratings transaction revenue slowed to 1% growth from 20% in the first half. Without the third-quarter billed issuance table and the update on tech-giant debt sales, outside readers cannot tell if fee rates compressed or volume dropped.
Did Market Intelligence contract value growth move off 6%?
Annual contract value growth in Market Intelligence had been stuck at about 6% for two quarters. Management usually gives this forward indicator on the call, and its absence from the release leaves subscription momentum prior to the review unclear.