Siga (SIGA) Q3 2026 earnings review
Siga wins a Canadian order, but product sales stall
Siga, the maker of the TPOXX smallpox drug, recorded almost no product sales after finishing its old United States government contract, though a new Canadian deal adds future orders. Total revenue fell 50% from a year ago to $1.3 million. Lower research spending helped cut the net loss to $2.9 million, while bill collections kept the cash balance steady at $116 million. Chief executive Diem Nguyen pointed to the October contract with Canada's defense department as proof of foreign demand while talks with Washington continue.
| Total revenue | $1.3M -50% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Product sales and services | $0.2M -74% from a year ago |
| Net loss | $2.9M $6.4M loss a year ago |
| New Canadian contract | Up to $15M $9M firm over 3 years |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because the new Canadian contract is too small to replace the expired United States stockpile agreement. Winning $9 million in firm orders over three years refills an empty order book, but by our math it averages $3 million a year against $88 million of product sales last year. One caution: reimbursed research revenue also dropped to $1.1 million this quarter, covering less of the company's fixed overhead.
The question now is whether foreign orders and $116 million in cash can carry the business until Washington awards a replacement contract. Either international deals build a steady bridge to a large domestic renewal, or sparse orders slowly drain cash while the next federal contract shrinks in size. An announcement of a new United States government procurement contract will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
New Canadian Contract Adds $9 Million in Firm Orders
Siga makes TPOXX, an antiviral drug that governments stockpile to treat smallpox. Because the company finished its prior United States contract in the second quarter, it needs foreign military and health orders to bring in cash. Chief executive Diem Nguyen said the company is "actively pursuing opportunities with other international governments to further diversify our customer base over time".
In October, after the third quarter closed, the Canadian Department of National Defence awarded the drugmaker a contract for up to $15 million of oral TPOXX through March 2031. That award includes $9 million of "firm commitments over the first three years of the contract" and $6 million in options that Canada can choose to exercise later. This deal follows $13 million of oral drug deliveries to two foreign buyers earlier this year.
The Canadian award matters because it refills an empty order book and proves that foreign defense buyers still order the drug. However, $9 million spread over three years averages $3 million a year by our math, which is too small to replace thetens of millions of dollars the United States government previously spent each year.
What to watch: the timing of the first Canadian shipment in the fourth-quarter or first-quarter report. Delivering an initial batch before March 2027 would bring back product revenueafter an empty third quarter.
Lower Research Spending Cut the Quarterly Loss in Half
When Siga has no drug shipments in a quarter, its fixed overhead and clinical trial costs determine how much money it loses. During the third quarter, the pharmaceutical company cut its total operating expenses by 39% from a year ago to $7.8 million.
Research and development spending drove the savings, dropping 63% from a year ago to $2.6 million, or by 68.8 percentage points of revenue by our math. Selling, general and administrative costs — the company's executive and office overhead — edged down 3% to $4.6 million, while the cost of sales and supportive services fell 43% to $0.6 million. Those lower research bills narrowed the net loss to $2.9 million, compared with a $6.4 million loss a year earlier.
What to watch: quarterly research and development expenses in the fourth-quarter report. Staying near $2.6 million would protect the company's cash balance while it waits for a new domestic stockpile contract.
🐻 Bear Case
Product Sales Stopped After the U.S. Contract Ended
"While we continue to work with the U.S. Government toward a new TPOXX procurement contract, our international business remains an important part of our strategy," chief executive Diem Nguyen said. For the last eight years, Siga relied on a single United States government agreement, known as the 19C contract, for the vast majority of its sales and profits.
In the first half of 2026, the drugmaker delivered $26 million of intravenous TPOXX to the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile, "fulfilling the final procurement order under that contract". With no orders left to ship in the third quarter, product sales and supportive services dropped 74% from a year ago to $0.2 million, down from $37.9 million in the second quarter.
- Third-quarter product sales: $0.2 million, down 74% from a year ago
- Nine-month product sales: $41.6 million, down 51% from $85.8 million a year ago
- Nine-month operating income: $2.1 million, down 94% from $33.2 million a year ago
This gap matters because international contracts have not prevented empty quarters between shipments. Even after adding the $9 million firm Canadian commitment in October, foreign orders are a fraction of the $88 million in total product sales the company recorded in 2025. Until Washington awards a replacement contract and places an order, Siga faces quarters with almost no product revenue.
What to watch: any announcement of a new multi-year procurement contract with the U.S. government. Without an award in the next two quarters, domestic product revenue will stay at zero into the second half of 2027.
Research Revenue Dropped Below Its Recent Pace
Alongside drug shipments, Siga earns research and development revenue when the U.S. government reimburses it for clinical trials and manufacturing work under the 19C contract. This service work acts as a steady source of income when drug deliveries pause.
In the third quarter, research and development revenue fell 37% from a year ago and 65% from last quarter to $1.1 million. Because the company earns this money as it pays for trial and manufacturing activities, the drop in research spending also reduced the reimbursement it could bill to the government. At $1.1 million, service revenue covered less than a quarter of the company's $4.6 million in office and executive overhead.
What to watch: remaining performance obligations for research services in the third-quarter 10-Q filing. A drop in that backlog or another quarter near $1 million would mean government-funded development work is winding down alongside product deliveries.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Siga's third-quarter press release gave no update on three standing clinical, regulatory and cost concerns that will appear in the conference call or the 10-Q filing.
- Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) filing and pediatric trial: no update on the first-half 2027 FDA submission target for using oral TPOXX to prevent smallpox after exposure, or on the Phase 1 trial for children due by year-end.
- European and British mpox label removals: no commentary on whether removing the mpox treatment indication in Europe and the United Kingdom has slowed buying talks with other foreign governments.
- Intravenous manufacturing and tariffs: no update on transferring intravenous TPOXX production to a new contract manufacturer or whether European raw material tariffs are raising costs.
👓 Other Themes
Longtime Chief Scientific Officer Retires After 30 Years
Siga announced that chief scientific officer Dennis Hruby will retire on November 9, 2026, after more than 30 years with the drugmaker. Hruby led the development of TPOXX and will stay on as an adviser after stepping down from his executive role. The company did not name a replacement in the release.
💲 Other KPIs
Cash edged down 1.0% from $117.6 million at the end of the second quarter and is down 24.9% from $155.0 million at the end of 2025 after April's $43 million special dividend. Collecting second-quarter customer bills offset most of the third quarter's operating loss.
Accounts receivable — money customers owe for delivered orders — fell 71.9% from $7.2 million at the end of June. The drop shows that Siga collected the remaining cash from its second-quarter shipments, leaving little unpaid cash to collect in the fourth quarter.
Inventory rose 1.2% from $41.1 million in the second quarter and sits below the $49.1 million held at the end of 2025. Keeping $41.6 million of raw materials and medicine on hand lets the drugmaker fill the new Canadian contract quickly once orders are placed.
❓ Key Questions
Where do talks for a new U.S. contract stand?
The 19C contract has no product orders left. Investors need to know whether the U.S. government has issued a formal request for proposals and how many doses it plans to buy.
When will Canada take its first TPOXX delivery?
Canada committed to buy $9 million of oral TPOXX over three years. Management previously aimed to ship a new international order by March 2027, so the delivery schedule will set fourth-quarter and first-quarter sales.
Why did research revenue and spending drop so sharply?
Research revenue fell 65% from the second quarter to $1.1 million while research spending fell 63% from a year ago. Management should clarify whether pediatric and post-exposure trial work slowed down.
Is the FDA post-exposure filing still on track for 2027?
The company previously pushed its target for submitting the smallpox post-exposure prophylaxis application to the first half of 2027. Any further delay would push back a catalyst for larger government orders.