Riskified (RSKD) Q4 2025 earnings review
GAAP Profitability Achieved as GMV Growth Accelerates
Riskified ended 2025 on a high note, crossing into GAAP profitability for the first time with a $5.8M net profit in Q4. While reported revenue growth was a modest 6% YoY, underlying platform momentum was exceptionally strong: Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) surged 18%. The go-to-market engine closed an impressive 55% of the year's total new business in Q4 alone, prompting management to guide for accelerating revenue growth (~10%) in 2026. However, future bottom-line expansion will be temporarily masked by a 400 basis point FX headwind. Armed with $297M in cash and zero debt, the Board authorized a new $75M share repurchase program.
🐂 Bull Case
Riskified proved its operating leverage in Q4, delivering $5.8M in GAAP net income and a record $17.7M in Adjusted EBITDA (18% margin). The business model is scaling effectively.
The company secured 55% of its full-year new business in Q4 alone. This, combined with an 18% surge in GMV, establishes a strong foundation for the guided double-digit revenue acceleration in 2026.
🐻 Bear Case
Despite accelerating top-line growth, 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is flat at 8%, weighed down heavily by a 400 basis point foreign exchange headwind.
Q4 revenue grew only 6% compared to GMV's 18% jump. This significant divergence indicates potential pressure on take rates or a mix shift toward lower-margin international and emerging vertical merchants.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. The crossover into GAAP profitability, combined with a dramatic acceleration in underlying GMV and a record bookings quarter, signals that Riskified's platform expansion is working. Robust share buybacks provide downside support.
Key Themes
Record Q4 Bookings and Go-To-Market Execution
The go-to-market team delivered its highest quarterly new business total in several years, capturing ~55% of the full-year new business in Q4. The top 10 new logos spanned six verticals and three geographies (including major wins in Latin America), proving the viability of Riskified's diversification strategy outside core U.S. e-commerce.
Product Innovation: AI Agents and Dynamic Returns
Riskified continues to expand its footprint beyond basic chargebacks. The company introduced 'Dynamic Returns' under its Policy Protect suite, allowing merchants to tailor refund policies in real-time based on customer risk profiles. Furthermore, the expansion of the AI Agent Intelligence platform positions the company strategically to secure merchants deploying native conversational AI shopping assistants.
Foreign Exchange Crushing 2026 Margins
Despite strong operational momentum and an 18% Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, the 2026 full-year EBITDA guidance ($26M-$34M) implies just an 8% margin—flat compared to 2025. Management explicitly noted a severe 400 basis point FX headwind at the midpoint, which will completely obscure the company's underlying operating leverage in the coming year.
Revenue Growth Significantly Lagging GMV
A notable red flag emerged in the volume-to-revenue conversion. Q4 GMV grew at an accelerating 18% YoY, yet revenue only grew 6%. While management previously cited billing lags and the rapid ramping of large, lower-margin segments like Money Transfer, this wide gap requires monitoring to ensure core pricing power remains intact.
Aggressive Capital Returns Reducing Float
Management is aggressively utilizing its debt-free, cash-rich balance sheet ($297.6M) to buy back stock. In 2025, Riskified repurchased 22.0 million shares for $105.9M. The Board just authorized an additional $75M program, signaling a sustained effort to materially shrink the outstanding share count at current valuations.
Other KPIs
Accelerating significantly from 52% in the prior year period. Management attributes this largest quarterly gross profit in company history to ongoing technical model performance improvements and efficient scaling.
Stable. While slightly down from the record $39.1 million generated in 2024, the business continues to produce healthy cash flows, fully self-funding its extensive share repurchase program.
Guidance
Accelerating. The midpoint of $378 million implies an approximate 10% YoY growth rate. This is a clear step up from the 5% growth posted in full-year 2025, supported by the massive influx of new bookings secured in Q4 2025.
Stable. The midpoint implies an 8% margin, exactly matching the FY25 result. The lack of margin expansion despite accelerating revenue is driven entirely by the forecasted 400 basis point foreign exchange headwind.
Key Questions
FX Headwind Drivers and Mitigation
You guided to a massive 400 basis point FX headwind on 2026 Adjusted EBITDA. Which specific currency pairs are driving this, and what hedging strategies or cost-shifting actions are you implementing to defend margins?
GMV vs. Revenue Divergence
Q4 GMV accelerated to 18% growth, yet revenue only grew 6%. How much of this 12-point spread is due to accounting/billing lags versus structural mix shifts into lower take-rate verticals like Money Transfer?
Q4 Bookings Conversion Timeline
With a record 55% of full-year new business booked in Q4 alone, what is the typical implementation timeline for these enterprise clients, and in which quarter of 2026 should we expect this revenue to fully materialize?