ReNew Energy Global (RNW) Q3 2026 earnings review
Wind Recovery and Manufacturing Ramp Drive 54% EBITDA Surge
ReNew delivered a blowout quarter, putting the 'weather headwinds' narrative of FY25 firmly in the rearview mirror. Adjusted EBITDA surged 54% YoY to INR 21.4 billion ($238M), driven by a sharp recovery in wind resources (PLF up 460 bps) and the rapid scaling of the solar manufacturing business, which contributed ~INR 2.1 billion to EBITDA. Total Income jumped 48%, significantly narrowing the Net Loss to INR 198 million from INR 3.9 billion a year ago. Management raised the floor of its full-year FY26 EBITDA guidance, signaling confidence in the structural improvements despite higher finance costs.
🐂 Bull Case
Solar module and cell manufacturing is no longer a science project—it's a profit center. External manufacturing sales hit INR 6.7 billion ($74M) in Q3, generating INR 2.15 billion in EBITDA. This diversification reduces reliance on weather-dependent utility returns.
The wind portfolio—ReNew's historical pain point—reversed course dramatically. Weighted average Wind PLF jumped to 18.1% from 13.5% in 25Q3, driving a 52% increase in electricity sold from wind assets.
🐻 Bear Case
Finance costs surged 24.2% YoY to INR 16.0 billion ($178M). This expense consumed nearly 75% of the record Adjusted EBITDA (INR 21.4B), keeping the company in a Net Loss position ($2M) despite the operational boom.
While wind recovered, the solar portfolio showed cracks. Weighted average Solar PLF declined to 20.9% from 21.9% a year ago, partially offsetting the volume gains from new capacity.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. The operational turnaround is undeniable. ReNew proved it can diversify revenue streams via manufacturing while benefiting from a cyclical recovery in wind. If they can refinance debt to lower the INR 16B quarterly interest bill, the path to sustained net profitability is clear.
Key Themes
Manufacturing: From Drag to Driver
Accelerating. The manufacturing segment (solar modules/cells) has exploded into a material contributor. External sales reached INR 6.66 billion in Q3, generating INR 2.15 billion in EBITDA at a healthy ~32% margin. For the 9 months of FY26, this segment has contributed ~INR 10.8 billion in EBITDA compared to just INR 0.6 billion in the prior year period.
Wind Portfolio Resurrection
Reversing. After a disastrous FY25 caused by weather anomalies, the wind portfolio is performing again. Wind electricity sold increased 52.2% YoY, driven by a PLF recovery to 18.1% (vs 13.5%). This operational leverage flows directly to the bottom line given the fixed-cost nature of these assets.
Debt Servicing Pressure
Accelerating. Finance costs and fair value changes rose 24% YoY to INR 16.0 billion. The company added significant debt for capacity expansion (Principal non-current loans +4.5% vs FY25 start; current loans jumped 50%). While leverage ratios may be stable due to EBITDA growth, the absolute cash cost of servicing this debt prevents Net Income breakeven.
Cash Collection Efficiency
Improving. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) for the IPP business improved to 66 days from 72 days a year ago. This discipline drove strong operating cash flow of INR 22.6 billion ($252M) in the quarter, up 22% YoY.
Other KPIs
Accelerating. Up 48% YoY. Driven by a 7% increase in commissioned capacity, higher wind PLFs, and the addition of external manufacturing sales.
Reversing. Massive improvement from a loss of INR 3,879 million in 25Q3. The company is on the verge of turning GAAP profitable, aided by high-margin manufacturing sales and asset sales gains (INR 4.6 billion gain on sale of assets included in income).
Accelerating. Up nearly 7x from INR 765 million in 25Q3. This metric, which ReNew uses as a proxy for distributable cash, benefited significantly from the higher EBITDA base.
Guidance
Accelerating. The floor was raised from the previous range of INR 87-93 billion. This implies confidence in the Q4 outlook, driven by the manufacturing segment contributing INR 11-13 billion (vs prior expectation of INR 8-10 billion in early FY26).
Stable/Narrowing. Revised slightly from 1.6-2.4 GW. The company has commissioned 1.3 GW in the first nine months, leaving a heavy lift of ~0.5-1.1 GW for Q4 to meet the target.
Stable. Maintained at previous levels despite the EBITDA beat, likely due to higher interest outflows and working capital needs for the manufacturing ramp.
Key Questions
Manufacturing Margin Sustainability
Manufacturing EBITDA margins were ~32% in Q3. Is this sustainable given global module price deflation, or was this driven by specific high-margin DCR (Domestic Content Requirement) contracts that may roll off?
Debt Refinancing Strategy
With finance costs rising 24% and eating up 75% of EBITDA, what is the specific plan to refinance the INR 211 billion in current maturities? Are domestic INR bond markets offering better terms than foreign currency debt?
Solar PLF Degradation
Solar PLF dropped 100bps to 20.9% this quarter. Is this purely weather-related (irradiation levels), or are there curtailment/module degradation issues impacting the older portfolio?
Buyout Status
The Q3 earnings release is silent on the 'best and final' buyout proposal mentioned in Q2 (Oct 28). Has the board reached a decision, or has the timeline extended beyond the expected November window?