Ryman Hospitality (RHP) Q4 2025 earnings review
Record Revenues Mask EPS Dilution and Lingering Attrition Issues
Ryman closed 2025 with accelerating top-line growth, delivering an all-time quarterly record consolidated revenue of $737.8M (+13.9% YoY). The Entertainment segment surged, and holiday programming like ICE! drove strong Total RevPAR (+5.2%) in the same-store Hospitality portfolio. However, the bottom line tells a mixed story. While Net Income grew 3%, EPS declined 1.8% YoY to $1.11, weighed down by the 3 million shares issued in May 2025 to fund the JW Marriott Desert Ridge acquisition. Heading into 2026, management expects stable group demand with mid-single-digit ADR growth, though execution risk remains elevated due to ongoing room renovations and historically high cancellation volumes.
🐂 Bull Case
Ryman booked over 1.2 million future room nights in Q4 at a record estimated ADR of $299, representing an accelerating 6.1% YoY increase. Meeting planner sentiment is strengthening.
The OEG segment posted record Q4 revenues of $109.5M. With new Category 10 venues planned for Las Vegas and Orlando, this segment is transitioning from a regional operator to a national lifestyle brand.
🐻 Bear Case
The JW Marriott Desert Ridge acquisition required significant equity issuance. While accretive to total EBITDA, net income available to common stockholders per share dropped 13.9% for the full year.
Gaylord Texan—one of the company's flagship assets—saw Q4 operating income drop 12.2% alongside a 7.6% drop in RevPAR. Upcoming renovations will compound these disruptions in 2026.
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪
Neutral. The core strategy of owning massive, irreplaceable group-focused assets is working, evidenced by robust future ADR bookings and high Total RevPAR. However, share dilution, elevated in-the-year cancellations, and disruptive capital projects will cap near-term per-share earnings growth.
Key Themes
Entertainment Segment Evolution Accelerating
The Entertainment segment is no longer just an ancillary business. Q4 revenue grew 11.6% to $109.5M, and operating income grew 8.0%. Management is aggressively expanding the Category 10 brand, announcing a new development at Universal Orlando Resort's CityWalk (expected late 2027) to complement the upcoming Las Vegas location. Adding the CCNB Amphitheatre management contract further diversifies the revenue base.
Gaylord Texan Severely Lagging
Performance at Gaylord Texan is reversing sharply. In Q4, RevPAR fell 7.6%, occupancy plunged 7.6 points to 67.1%, and operating income declined 12.2%. This weakness is partially tied to timing shifts related to upcoming room renovations (expected completion mid-2026). Until this project finishes, the asset will remain a significant drag on same-store metrics.
In-The-Year Cancellations Surging
A major red flag: In The Year For The Year (ITYFTY) cancellations skyrocketed 129.3% in Q4 (5,584 vs 2,435 room nights) and finished the year up 66.9% (68,570 vs 41,087). While gross future bookings remain strong, this massive spike in near-term drop-offs indicates that macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate budget tightening are still acutely impacting actualized attendance.
ICE! Programming Flexes Pricing Power
Ryman's product innovation on the F&B/Entertainment side is paying off. The proprietary ICE! holiday programming attracted over 1.5 million ticketed guests (+14.2% YoY), pushing Q4 same-store banquet and AV revenue up 4.6%. This successfully shields Ryman from relying solely on room rates by maximizing Total RevPAR (out-of-room spend).
Macro: Meeting Planner Sentiment Rebounds
After several quarters of cautious commentary regarding government and corporate meeting planners, management noted that sentiment 'strengthened as the quarter progressed.' This resulted in a monthly record for gross group room night bookings in December, signaling a stable macroeconomic backdrop for 2026 events.
Desert Ridge Margins Require Work
The newly acquired JW Marriott Desert Ridge generated $50.1M in Q4 revenue but yielded an operating margin of only 10.9% and an Adjusted EBITDAre margin of 28.9%—both well below the legacy Gaylord properties (e.g., Opryland's 38.4% Adjusted EBITDAre margin). Integration and capital deployment will be required to bring this asset up to portfolio profitability standards.
Other KPIs
Heavy investment mode continues. This capital spend drove an estimated 190 basis points of RevPAR disruption and a $23M hit to operating income in 2025. Ryman expects to spend another $350-$450M in 2026 (Foundry Fieldhouse at Opryland, Texan rooms, Hill Country rooms), ensuring disruption will remain a persistent headwind to near-term reported earnings.
Stable. The company upsized and refinanced its revolving credit facility in January 2026, increasing capacity from $700M to $850M and extending the maturity to 2030. Combined with zero amounts drawn on the revolver, liquidity is robust enough to easily self-fund the aggressive 2026 CapEx pipeline.
Guidance
Stable. The midpoint of 2.50% represents continued pricing power but acknowledges the ongoing friction from widespread property renovations.
Accelerating. The midpoint of $870.5M represents a 9.5% increase over 2025 actuals ($794.7M). This growth is driven by the first full-year contribution of JW Marriott Desert Ridge (guided for $67.5M) and high-single-digit growth expectations in the Entertainment segment ($125M midpoint).
Accelerating. The $8.75 midpoint implies a 3.4% growth over 2025's $8.46. While absolute AFFO dollars are growing much faster, the heavy share dilution from 2025 continues to mute the per-share growth trajectory.
Accelerating. Implies roughly 12.5% growth at the midpoint ($77.1M) compared to the $68.5M delivered in 2025, supported by the ramp-up of Category 10 Las Vegas and new amphitheater management.
Key Questions
Desert Ridge Margin Targets
JW Marriott Desert Ridge operating margins came in at 10.9% for Q4, significantly below the legacy Gaylord portfolio average. What is the specific timeline and capital requirement to close this margin gap?
Stickiness of ITYFTY Cancellations
In-the-year-for-the-year cancellations spiked 129% in Q4 despite strong forward bookings. Are these cancellations concentrated in specific sectors (e.g., government, tech), and are you adjusting attrition fee structures in 2026 contracts to compensate?
Gaylord Texan Recovery
Gaylord Texan RevPAR fell nearly 8% in Q4. How much of this was self-inflicted renovation disruption versus genuine competitive pressure in the Texas market, and when should we expect this to bottom out?
Entertainment Segment Capital Intensity
With the announcement of a third Category 10 in Orlando and new amphitheater contracts, how should we model the long-term capital intensity and expected ROIC for the Entertainment segment compared to the legacy hotel business?