Ferrari (RACE) Q3 2026 earnings review
Ferrari raises its annual outlook, while Chinese shipments drop
Ferrari earned more in the third quarter by selling pricier, heavily customised sports cars while shipping slightly fewer vehicles. Revenue excluding currency swings grew 10% (7% as reported to €1.9 billion), and operating profit rose 12% as F80 supercar deliveries and custom options outweighed a €45 million currency drag. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna raised the full-year outlook for a second straight quarter, which by our math points to revenue growth speeding up to 9% in the fourth quarter.
| Constant-currency revenue | +9.9% reported €1,896M (+7.4% from a year ago) |
|---|---|
| Operating profit (EBIT) | €563M +12.1% from a year ago (29.7% margin) |
| Customisation share of car sales | >21% above the ~20% full-year plan |
| Full-year outlook | Raised revenue ~€7.65B, EBIT ≥€2.285B |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because the waiting list now stretches into 2028, customisation topped 21% of car revenue, and US deliveries returned to growth after a spring dip. First allocations for the Luce electric car are also sold out for 2027. One caution: Mainland China shipments dropped 61% to 60 cars, and higher launch and depreciation bills will trim the fourth-quarter operating margin.
The question now is whether the slump in Chinese deliveries is just a pause between old and new models or a real drop in Chinese luxury demand. Management says local buyers are waiting for new models to arrive, while sceptics point to two straight quarters of steep shipment declines. Fourth-quarter Greater China deliveries, when new models reach global distribution, will show who is right.
🐂 Bull Case
Buyers Spent Record Sums Customising Their Cars
Ferrari makes most of its growth by selling pricier models and charging buyers for custom paint, carbon fibre and interior trim, rather than building more cars. Sceptics worry this extra spending will fade once the current wave of limited-edition models ends. This quarter, customisation moved higher again. "Personalizations surpassed 21% of total revenues from cars and spare parts and was particularly relevant for the 296 Speciale family," finance chief Antonio Picca Piccon said.
- Car and spare parts sales: €1,586 million, up 7.2% from a year ago
- Total cars shipped: 3,368, down 1.0% from a year ago
- Car and spare parts revenue per shipped car: €471,000, up 8.3% by our math
- Operating profit gain from product mix and customisation: €119 million
That €119 million gain was almost double the €60 million rise in total operating profit, because it paid for higher engineering bills and currency losses. Picca Piccon noted that limited-edition models made up 22% of shipments and will return to normal levels in future years, but he expects customisation to stay above 20% in the fourth quarter.
What to watch: the customisation share of car sales in the 2027 outlook in February. A drop below 20% as special models roll off would show that recent price gains relied on temporary model mix.
Expensive Models Lifted the Profit Margin
Operating profit rose 12.1% to €563 million, and the operating margin widened by 1.3 percentage points to 29.7% of revenue. The Italian carmaker achieved this because the cost of making its cars fell by 2.3 percentage points of revenue, from 49.9% a year ago to 47.6% this quarter. Ferrari attributed the gain to a "richer sports car mix, supported by the F80, and higher personalizations".
Picca Piccon said the group shipped "within the region of 50 units" of the F80, its flagship supercar, alongside more 12Cilindri Spiders and 296 Speciale models. Racing and engine rentals to other Formula 1 teams also added €20 million to operating profit. Those gains outweighed a 0.7-point rise in research and development costs and a 0.1-point uptick in selling and administrative costs.
What to watch: fourth-quarter cost of sales as a share of revenue. A reading near 48% would prove that new model pricing covers rising factory depreciation.
The Order Book Now Reaches Into 2028
"We continue to experience a healthy demand across all geographies, with an order book that enters 2028," chief executive Benedetto Vigna told investors. Three months ago, the waiting list covered 2027. For the Luce, Ferrari's first full-electric sports car, Vigna said "2027 deliveries are fully allocated" ahead of the first customer handovers in the fourth quarter, and resales of hybrid models are holding their value better as dealers educate buyers.
Americas deliveries also calmed a concern from the spring. After regional shipments dropped 20.7% in the second quarter during model changeovers, Americas deliveries edged up 0.5% from a year ago to 1,050 cars, with US shipments up 0.8% to 925. That recovery backs Picca Piccon's explanation that "we serve closer markets first, followed by a progressive rollout across other geographies".
What to watch: customer reaction after media and client test drives of the Luce in the first quarter of 2027. Strong order intake after those drives would extend electric demand into 2028.
🐻 Bear Case
Shipments in Mainland China Dropped by Three-Fifths
Ferrari manages its waiting lists to keep cars scarce, and Vigna said the drop in Chinese deliveries happened "because of the model changeover in China" as older models phased out before new ones arrived. Even so, the scale of the drop stands out against Vigna's claim of healthy demand everywhere, especially while the company withholds exact order numbers for individual models and regions.
- Mainland China shipments: 60 cars, down 60.8% from 153 a year ago
- Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan shipments: 143 cars, down 42.3% from 248
- Greater China share of global shipments: 4.2%, down from 7.3% a year ago
- Greater China car and spare parts revenue: down €68 million from a year ago
In the second quarter, Mainland China shipments fell 36.4% to 112 cars, so the decline deepened this quarter. While Americas deliveries bounced back as new models arrived, Chinese shipments shrank to less than two cars a day. If wealthy buyers in China are pulling back, the luxury carmaker must rely even more on European and American buyers to fill its allocation.
What to watch: Greater China shipments in the fourth quarter, when Vigna said new models reach global distribution. A third straight drop below 200 units would point to weaker local demand rather than shipping schedules.
New Models Push Up Engineering and Launch Costs
Ferrari is renewing its line-up during the "execution of the planned model change-over", phasing out the Roma Spider, 296 GTS and SF90 XX while ramping up the 849 Testarossa and Amalfi. Starting production of new cars triggers higher depreciation of factory tooling and amortisation of past engineering work. Research and development costs rose 13.2% from a year ago to €251 million, or 13.3% of revenue, up 0.7 percentage points.
Within that bill, amortisation of capitalised development costs jumped 17.7% to €100 million. Selling, general and administrative expenses also climbed 8.4% to €173 million, or 9.2% of revenue, on launch events and higher Formula 1 ranking accruals. Picca Piccon warned that both marketing and depreciation will rise again in the fourth quarter, which by our math leaves the implied fourth-quarter operating margin floor at 28.9%, down from 29.7% in Q3.
What to watch: fourth-quarter depreciation and amortisation, which rose 13.8% to €190 million this quarter. If that bill grows faster than car prices in 2027, operating margins will stall near 30%.
Currency Swings and Trade Rules Still Drag on Profit
Because Ferrari builds every car in Italy and sells heavily in the United States and Japan, a weaker US dollar or Japanese yen reduces the euros it collects. Currency moves, including hedges, cut third-quarter operating profit by €45 million and nine-month operating profit by €113 million. Without that €45 million drag, third-quarter operating profit would have risen 20.9% instead of 12.1% by our math.
The company also noted that nine-month cost of sales rose partly because of higher import tariffs in the United States. Picca Piccon expects a full-year currency headwind of €150 million to €200 million, slightly better than his earlier €200 million estimate because the dollar steadied near 1.15 per euro. He added that Ferrari hedges about 70% of its currency exposure on a rolling 12-month basis, so 2027 contracts are now locking in.
What to watch: the 2027 currency impact disclosed with full-year results in February. As older hedges roll off, any dollar weakness above 1.16 per euro will weigh on next year's profit growth.
💲 Other KPIs
Cash generated by the car and racing business after factory and engineering investments rose 43.2% from €396 million a year ago, by our math from the nine-month table. Nine-month industrial free cash flow reached €1,496 million, up 23.2%, lifting net industrial cash to €219 million from €32 million of net industrial debt at year-end.
Other liabilities, which mainly hold customer deposits for limited-edition cars like the F80 and upfront sponsorship payments, rose 18.1% from €1,392 million at the end of 2025. Inventories also climbed 11.7% over the same nine months to €1,244 million as the Maranello factory built up finished cars for new model rollouts.
The average diluted share count fell 1.4% from 178.3 million a year ago. Ferrari spent €608 million buying back its own shares and paid €635 million in dividends during the first nine months, keeping diluted earnings per share growth (+14.0%) ahead of net profit growth (+12.8%).
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The new target adds €50 million and points to 7.1% growth for the year. By our math, that leaves €1,968 million for the fourth quarter, or 9.2% growth from a year ago, up from 7.4% in Q3 as shipment volumes recover against an easy comparison. It is the second raise this year, after +€100 million in Q2.
Raised. The profit floor moved up €25 million and the margin floor rose 0.3 percentage points, pointing to at least 8.3% full-year profit growth. By our math, the floor leaves €569 million for Q4 (+10.9% from a year ago) and a 28.9% margin, down from 29.7% in Q3 on higher marketing and depreciation. Ferrari beat its latest annual EBIT floor by 3.1% on average over the last two years.
Raised. Management lifted the floor by €30 million and the margin floor by 0.2 percentage points, for at least 8.2% growth over 2025. By our math, that implies at least €770 million of EBITDA in the fourth quarter, or a 39.1% margin, compared with 39.7% in Q3.
Raised. The floor rose by €0.17 per share, or at least 9.9% growth for the year, calculated on 176.5 million diluted shares. By our math, the target leaves at least €2.46 per share for the fourth quarter, up 15.0% from €2.14 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Raised. The top of the new target is €100 million above the prior floor and 7.3% above 2025. Because the business already generated €1,496 million in the first nine months, the target leaves up to €154 million for Q4 by our math, down 52.0% from a year ago as tax and capital payments fall due.
❓ Key Questions
How many Luce orders came from buyers new to Ferrari?
Vigna said 2027 deliveries of the electric Luce are fully allocated, but he declined to share the split between repeat owners and new clients. Knowing whether the car brings in fresh buyers or just sells to existing collectors is central to the 2030 client target.
Are Greater China orders falling, or only shipments?
Mainland China shipments dropped 61% to 60 cars, which management blamed on model changeover timing. Management did not say whether Chinese waiting lists are still growing at the same pace as Europe and the Americas.
What currency rate is locked in for 2027 hedges?
Picca Piccon said the group hedges 70% of its currency exposure on a 12-month rolling basis, benefiting from recent dollar rates below 1.15. Disclosing the average hedged rate for 2027 would show whether the €150–200 million currency drag will shrink next year.
How much will Customisation grow once the paint shop opens?
Exterior paint accounts for one-third of customisation revenue, and the new Maranello paint shop opens in 2027. Management has not yet quantified how much extra capacity or revenue the facility will add.