Penn Entertainment (PENN) Q3 2026 earnings review

Penn's new casinos lift profit while its betting business shrinks

Penn's four new casinos are carrying the company while its online betting business keeps getting smaller. Revenue rose about 1% at the properties it already ran a year ago, against 5% across the casino estate. Felicia Hendrix, the finance chief, raised the full-year casino profit plan again, and net borrowings fell to $1.8 billion.

At a glance
Casino revenue excluding the four new projects+1% whole casino estate: +5%
Digital revenue, excluding tax reimbursements$157.0M $158.2M a year ago
Profit per share, excluding one-offs$0.32 a loss of $0.22 a year ago
Full-year casino profit outlookRaised $10M to $1,973M, 5.6% above last year

โš–๏ธ Verdict: ๐ŸŸข Bullish

The story got better, because the money Penn sank into four casinos now returns as profit and lower debt. Pennsylvania also switched off the unlicensed slot machines that competed with its casinos. The bad news is digital: revenue excluding tax reimbursements slipped under last year's level, and the full-year plan for that line is thinner than it was in August.

The question now is whether the online arm can grow again or only shrink more cheaply. Canada and the Hollywood app are adding players; American sports betting is losing them faster. Fourth-quarter revenue excluding tax reimbursements, planned at $203 million, settles it.

๐Ÿ‚ Bull Case

๐ŸŸข๐ŸŸข strengthening GROWTH

Four New Casinos Are Carrying the Growth

Penn runs over 40 casinos and racetracks in mature American markets that grow little on their own. So it spent about $800 million on four projects: a new casino in Aurora, a replacement for the Joliet riverboat, and hotel towers at Columbus and M Resort.

Chief executive Jay Snowden credited "increases in rated revenue and spend per visit across all age segments"; ten properties set third-quarter revenue records, and Aurora saw "our active database grow by 96% year-over-year".

  • Casino revenue: $1.49 billion, up 5% from a year ago
  • Casino profit before rent: $501.8 million, up 7.7%
  • Properties it already ran a year ago: revenue up about 1%

The old estate barely moves, so these four matter more than their cost suggests: four-fifths of the quarter's revenue growth came from them, by our math. The benefit is finite, because each property eventually laps its opening and joins the base.

What to watch: Joliet's margin, which Snowden says settles 12 to 15 months after an opening. He said October margins there "look very different" from a year earlier, and a repeat in the fourth quarter would show a genuine ramp.

๐ŸŸข strengthening CASH

Debt Is Coming Down Faster Than Planned

Penn rents most of the buildings it operates from two landlords for about $1 billion a year, on top of its borrowings. That is why Snowden calls deleveraging the first claim on cash: "delevering is still priority one". Nine months have gone to it.

  • Net borrowings: $1.76 billion, from $2.22 billion in December
  • Borrowings to yearly profit: 2.3 times, from 4.5 times
  • Including capitalised rent: 5.6 times, from 6.8 times

The year-end targets sit inside ranges set three months ago, so this is delivery rather than a fresh promise. Part of it is timing, because finance chief Felicia Hendrix trimmed project spending again and pushed the bill into 2027.

What to watch: the $400 million of notes maturing in January. Refinancing them out of $2.0 billion of liquidity would leave nothing due until 2029.

concern eased MACRO

Pennsylvania Switched Off the Unlicensed Machines

Skill games are slot-like machines that sat in Pennsylvania bars and shops without a casino licence and paid no gaming tax. They took money from Penn's four casinos there for years, and the state began switching them off on October 14.

Snowden says the ban has teeth: "enforcement since October 14th has been real". October produced Pennsylvania's strongest gaming revenue growth of 2026, and "most of that growth is coming from the unrated segment" โ€” players Penn does not know by name.

Missouri points the same way, because its attorney general shut these machines down earlier and that state has grown strongly all year. Snowden says "skill-based games should be gone forever".

What to watch: Northeast revenue next quarter. Growth well above this quarter's 2.6% would show the recaptured players stay rather than drift back to the machines.

๐ŸŸข strengthening PRODUCT

Canada and the Hollywood App Narrow the Loss

Penn's Interactive arm sells online casino games and sports bets, under theScore in Canada and Hollywood Casino in America. After the ESPN deal ended a year ago, Snowden pointed it at online casino and Canada, launching both in Alberta in July.

The loss shrank to $18.3 million from $76.6 million. Nearly all of that came from spending rather than sales. Media and advertising now take 25% of revenue excluding tax reimbursements, against 46% a year ago. Online casino revenue rose 6.4%.

This is a cost story: cheaper players, not more of them. Snowden says Alberta's casino market is larger than he expected, and the company plans its first profitable digital quarter in the fourth.

What to watch: Ontario's share of digital revenue, which Penn does not publish. Without it the turnaround cannot be tied to a market rather than to one province's launch spending.

๐Ÿป Bear Case

๐Ÿ”ด๐Ÿ”ด persistent GROWTH contradicts narrative

Digital Sales Shrink Once Reimbursements Come Out

Penn rents its gaming licences to other betting firms and pays their state gaming taxes for them. Those firms reimburse it, and Penn books the reimbursement as revenue. Of the $348.4 million its digital arm reported, $191.4 million was that pass-through.

Strip it out and the business did not grow. The reported 17% rise becomes a small decline, and the parts underneath moved further than the whole.

  • Revenue excluding reimbursements: $157.0 million against $158.2 million a year ago
  • Online sportsbook revenue: $50.3 million, down 12.7%
  • Average monthly paying users: 407,000 against 510,000
  • Fourth-quarter plan: $203 million excluding reimbursements, against $216 million a year ago

Snowden's release credits "Sustained revenue growth in U.S. standalone Hollywood iCasino and Canada", and both claims hold alone. The whole still shrinks. Worse, the full-year figure now implied for this line runs about $44 million under the plan set in August, by our math.

What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue excluding reimbursements, against the $216 million earned a year ago. A fifth straight quarter without growth would make this a shrinking business that earns money, a different asset from the one management describes.

๐Ÿ”ด persistent MACRO

Illinois Taxes Rose and Colorado May Follow

Casinos pay states a share of what they win, and in Illinois that share climbs as a property wins more. Snowden said margins improved despite "unfavorable table game hold" and Aurora and Joliet "moving into higher gaming tax tiers".

Legislatures are the wider worry. Colorado's departing governor proposed lifting the effective rate on casinos, "a weak move to do something like that on your way out", Snowden said, and he expects the incoming governor to revisit it. Online, Aaron LaBerge sees "nothing material" yet from prediction markets, though "it is aggressive on a user acquisition side".

Both pressures run one way, because winning more in a tiered state is taxed harder and new rivals bid up the price of a sports customer.

What to watch: Midwest margin next quarter, which fell 60 basis points this time on labour and marketing. A second decline would point at the tax tiers instead.

๐Ÿ”ด persistent DISCLOSURE

Risks this quarter didn't answer

Four standing concerns got no new numbers this quarter, and each one has a named disclosure that would settle it in one direction or the other.

  • Rent: $167.9 million this quarter, up 6.2%, after Aurora added $17.4 million of annual rent in June.
  • January maturity: $400 million of notes fall due; the replacement terms will show the cost.
  • Canada's share: Ontario and Alberta revenue is still not split out.
  • The next two projects: $180-200 million at Council Bluffs and $195 million in New Orleans, with no returns readable until they open.

What to watch: February's annual report, which carries the geographic revenue table and the full lease schedule. Both would turn three of these items into numbers, and the refinancing should be done by then.

๐Ÿ‘“ Other Themes

fading CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Still No Share Buybacks

Penn bought back $154.1 million of its shares in the same quarter last year. This year it has bought none, under an authorisation of $750 million that runs to 2028. Hendrix explains the choice plainly: "one of the best drivers of value, in our view, is to de-risk our balance sheet". Snowden says repurchases return to the agenda in 2027.

new CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Two More Riverboats Move Ashore

Penn "broke ground on a development project to relocate its Ameristar Council Bluffs riverboat casino operations" on September 14, budgeted at $180-200 million for 2028, with up to $150 million available from its landlord. A New Orleans relocation follows in 2029 at about $195 million. The rebrand of that property cost $8.0 million in a trademark write-down this quarter.

๐Ÿ’ฒ Other KPIs

Revenue per monthly active user (26Q3) $104
โ‡— accelerating

Each paying online player spent 22.8% more than a year ago, the widest increase of 2026. The figure was $84 a year earlier. Penn now has fewer users and richer ones: LaBerge says the company is "retaining the best mid and high-value users", which lifts this number as the user count falls.

Accounts receivable (26Q3) $240.4 million
โ‡˜ decelerating

Money owed to Penn fell 5.4% since December while revenue grew 7.1% over the year. Receivables are mostly amounts due from its licensing partners and credit players, so a smaller balance against larger sales means cash arrives sooner. Collections added to the $626.4 million of operating cash in the first nine months.

Depreciation and amortisation (26Q3) $123.8 million
โ‡— accelerating

The charge for wearing out buildings and equipment rose 8.4%, a third straight increase, as M Resort, Columbus and Aurora came into service. It now runs about $10 million a quarter above last year's level, which holds reported earnings down even where cash profit grows.

๐Ÿ”ฎ Guidance

FY2026 retail segment revenue $5.89 billion (midpoint)
๐Ÿ … raised from $5.87 billion (midpoint)
โ‡’ stable

Raised. The plan now has casino revenue of $5.89 billion, up 4.1% on last year. Its middle point moved up $16 million. By our math that leaves about 4.4% growth for the fourth quarter, a little under the rate just reported. Hendrix lifted it "to reflect our better-than-expected results in the third quarter and current trends".

FY2026 retail Segment Adjusted EBITDAR $1,973 million (midpoint)
๐Ÿ … raised from $1,963 million (midpoint)
โ‡’ stable

Raised. Casino profit before rent is planned at $1,973 million, 5.6% above last year. By our math the fourth quarter carries about $483 million of it, which is 5.7% growth against a quarter that shrank a year ago. Fourth raise in four outlooks, and the moves are uneven: +$12M, +$31M, +$10M.

Q4 2026 Interactive Adjusted EBITDA $18.7 million
๐Ÿ † unchanged from positive, no figure given
โ‡„ reversing

Held, and now a number. Three months ago the company said only that the fourth quarter would make money; it now puts the figure at $18.7 million, which would be the digital arm's first profitable quarter. That is 9.2% of revenue excluding tax reimbursements, by our math, against a loss of 11.7% this quarter.

FY2026 Interactive Adjusted EBITDA $(20) million
๐Ÿ † unchanged from $(20) million
โ‡„ reversing

Unchanged. The digital arm still plans a $20 million loss for the year, all of it explained by the $20 million spent launching Alberta in July. Nine months are done at a $38.7 million loss, so the fourth quarter has to supply the rest. Hendrix held the figure even after trimming the revenue behind it.

Q4 2026 Interactive revenue $445 million, including $242 million of tax reimbursements
โ‡˜ decelerating

New. Excluding the reimbursements Penn collects for its licensing partners, the plan is $203 million, which is 6% below the same quarter last year. The reported figure still grows, because the reimbursement line grows. Football season and Alberta are inside this number, so it is the clearest test of whether the digital decline is ending.

FY2026 Interactive tax reimbursements about $805 million
๐Ÿ ‡ cut from about $830 million
โ‡’ stable

Cut. Hendrix put the full-year reimbursement figure about $25 million below her earlier one, with slightly less than half of that drop already in this quarter. Because several partners pay fixed fees, she said the change leaves Penn's own share of their revenue untouched. It lowers reported revenue and gaming tax expense equally.

FY2026 Other category Adjusted EBITDA $(122) million
๐Ÿ ‡ cut from $(119) million
โ‡’ stable

Cut by $3 million. The extra cost is legal fees for winning an Indiana tax case, which cut the quarter's tax charge to $1.7 million. Corporate costs still run below last year, at $30.4 million for the quarter against $34.0 million, because the activist-defence bills of 2025 have gone.

FY2026 project capital spending $170 million
๐Ÿ ‡ cut from $180 million
โ‡˜ decelerating

Cut again. This is the third reduction of the year, from $225 million, and each one moves Council Bluffs spending into 2027 rather than cancelling it. Total spending for the year now stands at $390 million. The quarter itself used $59.2 million, a third of last year's rate, which is why cash built up.

FY2026 maintenance capital spending $220 million
๐Ÿ † unchanged from $220 million
โ‡’ stable

Unchanged for a fourth outlook. This covers replacing worn-out equipment, a level the leases oblige Penn to keep spending as a share of revenue. Only $111.5 million went out in the first nine months, so the fourth quarter carries an unusually heavy bill if the figure holds.

FY2026 cash rent to landlords $1,000 million
๐Ÿ † unchanged from $1,000 million
โ‡’ stable

Unchanged. Penn expects to hand its two landlords $1 billion this year, against $746.6 million paid in the first nine months. The bill rises with each funded project and with yearly escalators, so this line grows even when revenue does not. It is the single largest claim on the company's cash.

FY2026 cash interest expense, net of interest income $150 million
๐Ÿ † unchanged from $150 million
โ‡’ stable

Unchanged for a third outlook. Repricing the term loan 50 basis points cheaper in May offsets the coupon on the $600 million of notes issued in March. Half the borrowings now carry a floating rate. The January maturity is the next item that could move this line, in either direction.

FY2026 cash taxes $0
๐Ÿ † unchanged from $0
โ‡’ stable

Unchanged. Penn does not expect to pay cash tax this year, and has in fact collected refunds of $15.3 million over nine months. Past losses and the Indiana ruling cover the bill. The company still holds a valuation allowance against unused tax assets, which it would release if profits persist.

Year-end lease-adjusted net leverage about 5.3x
๐Ÿ † unchanged from 5.2x - 5.5x
โ‡˜ decelerating

Held, and narrowed to a point inside the old range. Hendrix said "we anticipate 2026 lease-adjusted net leverage to improve by approximately 1.5 turns" over the year. The measure capitalises rent at eight times, so it falls through profit growth rather than repayment, and rent additions work against it.

Year-end traditional net leverage about 2.1x
๐Ÿ † unchanged from 2.0x - 2.2x
โ‡˜ decelerating

Held at the middle of the old range, an improvement of about 2.4 turns over the year. This measure counts borrowings only, so the repaid revolver and the convertible notes do the work. Snowden wants a figure starting with one soon after, which would take the balance sheet back to pre-2023 shape.

โ“ Key Questions

How much of digital revenue comes from Canada?

Ontario and Alberta carry the growth and the launch costs, yet Penn publishes no revenue split by country. Without it, nobody can tell whether the American business is stabilising or still falling.

How is the 2.3 times leverage figure built?

Net borrowings of $1.76 billion against a leverage ratio of 2.3 times implies a profit base that the published statements do not show directly. The definition matters for the sub-two-times target.

What will the Illinois tax tiers cost next year?

Aurora and Joliet moved into higher tax brackets because they did well. Penn has not sized the effect, so the margin ceiling on its two best new properties is unknown.

Are the project returns measured before rent?

Penn targets more than 15% cash returns on roughly $800 million of projects, while the three landlord-funded ones added $39.2 million of annual rent. Whether the return is struck before or after that rent changes it materially.

Is the three-dollar cash flow target still intact?

The company pointed to about $3 of free cash flow per share for 2026. Two cuts to project spending have since flattered the figure, so the underlying number deserves a check.