Pembina Pipeline (PBA) Q3 2026 earnings review
Pembina's propane exports lift profit, but pipeline earnings fall
Pembina, which moves Western Canada's oil and gas, profited from Asian propane prices while its pipelines earned less. Its core profit, Ebitda excluding one-offs, rose 9%. Chief executive Scott Burrows said propane exports did most of the work beyond Pembina's own expectations. Without the marketing arm, that profit grew about 3% by our math.
| Ebitda excluding one-offs | C$1,128 million C$1,034 million a year ago |
|---|---|
| Same measure without the marketing arm | +2.8% from a year ago, by our math |
| Fourth-quarter liquids margin hedged | About 75% 40% three months ago |
| Full-year outlook | C$4.45–4.55 billion previously C$4.35–4.55 billion; trending to the top |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because Pembina raised the floor of its yearly plan and fixed most fourth-quarter prices in advance. Hedges now cover about 75% of that quarter's North American liquids margin, against 40% before. One caution: the raise is smaller than the third-quarter surplus, so by our math the plan expects a weaker fourth quarter than it did.
The question now is whether the Asian propane premium lasts. If it does, the marketing arm keeps adding profit; if not, Pembina relies again on pipelines and plants that earned only a little more. Next year's plan, due in December, will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
New Plants Lifted Profit in the Facilities Division
Pembina's Facilities division runs gas processing plants and the Redwater complex, which splits natural gas liquids into propane and butane. Customers pay fees for that work, so new units add income that does not depend on prices.
RFS IV, a new Redwater splitter, opened in May on time and under budget. The Wapiti expansion at PGI, Pembina's gas processing joint venture, started in March. Those units, plus busier terminals, lifted Facilities Ebitda excluding one-offs 13% to C$400 million. Planned shutdowns a year ago made the comparison easier, the company said.
What to watch: Facilities Ebitda in the fourth-quarter results, due in February, when new gathering lines for producer Whitecap Resources at Lator contribute. Double-digit growth there would show the new units, not the easy base, drove this gain.
Greenlight and Pacific Link Extend Growth Past 2030
Pembina targets 5–7% yearly growth through 2030 in fee-based Ebitda per share, the contracted part of its profit. Finance chief Cameron Goldade said the large projects arrive in 2028 and 2030.
Pembina and its partners approved Greenlight, a gas-fired plant that will power an Alberta data centre, in July. Chief executive Scott Burrows said "we see this as a business, not as a project", since the site can hold twice the first phase.
Pacific Link, a proposed oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast, won federal "Project of National Interest" status in October. Pembina would own 10% during construction, but it holds only a "non-binding agreement".
What to watch: Greenlight's expected yearly profit for Pembina, a figure the group has never published. It decides whether data-centre power lifts the 5–7% target or only helps meet it.
Hedges Now Cover Most Fourth-Quarter Liquids Margins
Part of Pembina's profit depends on the frac spread, the gap between the price of natural gas liquids and the cost of the gas. Three months ago, hedges, contracts that fix a price in advance, covered only 40% of the fourth quarter's exposure.
Pembina used the high third-quarter prices to add hedges. It now covers about 75% of its North American frac spread for the quarter. Finance chief Cameron Goldade said the group is "closer to 55% hedged for 2027". The outlook moved too, because Pembina raised its low end by C$100 million. A weak fourth quarter can no longer leave the year far below plan.
What to watch: the hedged share for 2027 in the December plan. More cover would mean next year's profit leans less on propane prices that Goldade calls "very frothy".
🐻 Bear Case
Volatile Propane Prices Drove Most of the Gain
Pembina's marketing arm buys and sells crude oil and gas liquids, so its profit moves with prices. Chief executive Scott Burrows described a quarter of "strong operational performance, new assets entering service, and a constructive commodity environment".
The numbers put prices first. Burrows said the result beat Pembina's own expectations "mostly due to the benefits of our exposure to premium propane prices in Asian markets". The group ships that propane from its export terminal at Prince Rupert, on the West Coast.
- Marketing Ebitda excluding one-offs: C$167 million, up 69% from a year ago
- Marketing's share of group Ebitda: 15%, from 10% a year ago
- Group Ebitda without marketing: up about 3%, by our math
That gap matters because the propane premium may not last. Finance chief Cameron Goldade said "the market from that side is very frothy right now" and that "markets ebb and flow". The fee businesses, which carry the 2030 target, grew far more slowly.
What to watch: marketing Ebitda in the fourth quarter, due in February. A result close to this quarter's would show the Asian premium held up. Goldade said the outlook already reflects a disruption at a partner's export terminal.
Pipeline Earnings Fell for a Fourth Quarter
Pipelines, Pembina's largest division, earns tolls, the fees shippers pay to move oil and gas. A toll cut on Alliance, a gas pipeline running to the US Midwest, took effect in November 2025.
- Pipelines Ebitda excluding one-offs: C$606 million, down 3.8% from a year ago
- Change a quarter earlier: down 3.1%
The fourth quarter laps that cut, so the drop should narrow. But Alliance's US arm settled its rate case. It will "preserve existing mainline recourse rate tolls until the end of May 2028", then accept "a phased step down over the remainder of the settlement term".
What to watch: Pipelines Ebitda in the fourth quarter, once the cut drops out of the comparison. A further decline would point to rivals taking volume or pricing power.
Volumes Through Pipes and Plants Barely Grew
Pembina's 2030 target counts partly on more oil and gas moving through pipes and plants it already owns. Each extra barrel adds fees without any new building.
- Pipelines and Facilities volumes: 3.66 million barrels of oil equivalent a day
- Change from a year ago: up 1.4%
- Same measure a quarter earlier: up 2.9%
Finance chief Cameron Goldade listed the drags: "lower contracted volumes at the Saturn complex", an upgrade at the Younger plant and reduced ethane sales at Aux Sable. Higher flows on the Peace, Nipisi and Drayton Valley pipelines offset part of the loss.
What to watch: fourth-quarter volumes, when gas from the new Lator lines reaches the Musreau plant. Growth below this quarter's pace would mean existing assets add little to the 2030 target before the big projects start.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Four standing concerns got no decisive reading in the release or on the call. Each needs a figure that arrives with the year-end results or the December plan.
- Debt: the release has no balance sheet or leverage ratio, and Pacific Link adds a 10% construction stake.
- Anchor customers: Greenlight serves one data centre and the Heartland plant one buyer, Dow; signed Greenlight phase-two customers would ease this.
- Cedar LNG, Pembina's floating gas-export plant: over 77% built, and chief executive Scott Burrows said "Everything is tracking as expected"; start-up comes in late 2028.
- Fee-based Ebitda per share for 2026: Pembina reports it once a year, in February.
What to watch: the year-end balance sheet in February, which gives the first debt reading since Pacific Link and Greenlight joined Pembina's plans.
💲 Other KPIs
Rose 15% from a year ago, faster than Ebitda, after declines through late 2025. The measure counts cash from operations before working-capital swings and after preferred dividends. It has now grown for three quarters in a row, and the gain widened each time.
Almost doubled from a year ago, far ahead of Ebitda. Paper gains on interest-rate hedges at Cedar LNG and Greenlight explain much of the gap, along with a smaller write-down at PGI than a year earlier. Excluding one-offs, earnings rose 11% to C$479 million.
Up 14% from a year ago. Pembina estimated C$530 million for the second half, so by our math about C$327 million remains for the fourth quarter. That would make it the heaviest spending quarter of the year.
Held at the level the board set in the second quarter, 3.5% above a year ago. By our math the payment takes about 57% of this quarter's operating cash flow per share excluding one-offs, which leaves cash for the project build-out.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The plan now has core profit up about 5% this year, and Pembina says it is heading for the top. By our math the middle leaves about C$1.18 billion for the fourth quarter, up 9% from a weak base. That falls short of what the old plan implied, so the raise passes on only part of the third-quarter surplus. Moves this year: up C$175 million, held, up C$50 million.
Unchanged. Pembina still targets 5–7% yearly growth in the contracted part of its profit per share through 2030. Finance chief Cameron Goldade said the first large step arrives in late 2028 with Cedar LNG, and Greenlight adds half a year in 2030. The group has approved nearly C$3 billion of projects since April and sets out its 2027 plan in December.
❓ Key Questions
What will Greenlight earn for Pembina each year?
Pembina has committed up to C$1 billion of equity to the power plant but has never published its expected profit or its cost relative to that profit. Without those figures, readers cannot judge what Greenlight adds to the 2030 target.
How much will the Pacific Link stake cost Pembina?
Pembina would hold 10% of a pipeline carrying about one million barrels a day during construction. It has not said what that stake costs, whether it caps its share of overruns, or how it fits its debt limits.
How large is the one-time PGI revenue in Q4?
Pembina lists "a non-recurring revenue recognition" at PGI among the fourth quarter's drivers. Its size matters, because a one-off inside that quarter would flatter the base for next year's plan.
Where does debt stand after the third quarter?
The release carries no balance sheet or leverage ratio. Pembina says it can fund its plan "while maintaining the financial guardrails", but Cedar LNG spending peaks this year while Pacific Link and Greenlight add commitments.
Did the Alliance short-haul expansion find shippers?
Pembina planned a binding open season, a formal call for shipper commitments, in early 2026 for up to 350 million cubic feet a day of new Alliance capacity. Neither the release nor the call mentioned the result.