Osisko Gold (OGG) Q3 2026 earnings review
Osisko Gold secures mine funding, but its costs arrive early
Osisko Gold, the Canadian company building the Cariboo gold mine, now has the money to finish it. The developer sold US$600 million of bonds and approved construction, with first gold planned for early 2029. Its small test mine in Utah also made a profit. But Cariboo costs are arriving early, and by our math fourth-quarter spending will be almost double what the September plan pointed to.
| Cash, restricted cash and investments | $1.50 billion about $907 million left to build Cariboo |
|---|---|
| Fourth-quarter Cariboo spending plan | Raised to $183 million about $99 million implied in September, by our math |
| Debt and leases | $1.14 billion $145 million at the end of 2025 |
| Net loss | $57.7 million $150.3 million a year ago |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because Osisko Gold no longer depends on a lender's conditions to build its mine. A year ago it doubted it could keep operating without new money; now it says its cash covers the coming year. One caution: the company carries about eight times the debt it had in December, at interest rates up to 9.25%.
The question now is whether the early spending only moves costs forward or pushes up the total bill. If it is only timing, the bond money still leaves a cushion; if the total climbs, the company may need new money on worse terms. The spending breakdown due in the first quarter of 2027 will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Bond Sale Pays for Most of Cariboo
Cariboo is the underground gold mine Osisko Gold is building in central British Columbia. A year ago the developer warned it might not keep operating without new money, because its cash would not cover its 2026 plans.
On September 30 Osisko Gold sold US$600 million of bonds and repaid its loan from Appian, a lender whose later draws came with conditions. Most of the remaining bond money now sits in separate accounts that pay for the mine and the first five interest payments.
- Cash on hand: $733.7 million
- Bond money held for building Cariboo: $451.8 million
- Remaining construction cost: about $907 million
- Cover, by our math: 1.3 times the remaining cost
This matters because the company now says it has "liquidity to meet its obligations, commitments and forecasted expenditures through at least the next twelve months". But the same cash also pays overhead and convertible-bond interest, so the cushion is thin.
What to watch: a signed prepayment deal with Trafigura, which agreed to buy all of Cariboo's gold concentrate and doré in its first years. Osisko Gold expects the deal in the fourth quarter, and it would add up to US$120 million above the remaining cost.
Board Approves Construction; First Gold in 2029
On September 14 the board approved formal construction of Cariboo, with first gold planned for early 2029 and steady output in the second half of that year. In October the developer said the build "continues to advance on schedule".
- Project complete, measured by costs spent: about 28%
- Detailed engineering complete: about 42%
- Purchase packages awarded: over 50%, about $360 million of commitments
Early contracts matter because long-lead equipment, such as mining fleet parts, sets the pace of a mine build. But costs spent measure money rather than finished work, so the completion figure says little about the schedule yet.
What to watch: the progress update Osisko Gold plans for the first quarter of 2027. Engineering well past half and an unchanged first-gold date would support the schedule.
Utah Test Mine Turns a Profit
Tintic is Osisko Gold's Utah project, where it mines small batches of high-grade rock at the Trixie test mine. It works without a feasibility study, the engineering report that tests whether a mine can pay.
- Gold sold: 3,162 ounces, against 877 a year ago
- Operating income in Utah: $8.8 million, after a small loss a year ago
- Cost of sales, the cost of mining and shipping the rock: 51% of revenue, from 37% last quarter
The profit matters because the company plans to pay for a ramp into the old Eureka Standard mine from these sales. But ounces sold fell 43% from the second quarter, so the cash from Utah swings from one quarter to the next.
What to watch: fourth-quarter ounces sold. Osisko Gold expects test mining to run "into 2027 and 2028", and steady sales would pay for the Utah work without touching Cariboo money.
🐻 Bear Case
Cariboo Spending Arrives Earlier Than Planned
When the board approved construction in September, Osisko Gold said spending for the rest of the year would come to about a tenth of total project costs. By our math, on the $990 million estimate, that is about $99 million.
In its quarterly report the developer put fourth-quarter spending at $183 million. It cited "accelerated procurement of certain long-lead time items related to surface infrastructure items, as well as mining fleet components", which it had planned to buy later in the build.
That reason may hold, because buying a part early does not change its price. But Osisko Gold kept the $990 million total and named inflation, supply delays and contractor performance as risks to it. Capital spending already climbed 22% from the second quarter, so cash leaves faster than the September plan showed.
What to watch: the spending breakdown the company plans for the first quarter of 2027. A total above $990 million would cut straight into the margin between its cash and the remaining cost.
Debt Is Now Almost Eight Times Higher
To pay for Cariboo, Osisko Gold has taken on large amounts of debt. Debt and leases reached $1.14 billion in September, against $145 million in December.
- Secured bonds: US$600 million at 9.25%, due 2031
- Convertible bonds, which can turn into shares: US$300 million at 4.125%
- Yearly interest on both, by our math: about US$68 million
A reserve account holds the first five interest payments on the secured bonds, enough until April 2029 by our math. That is just after the planned first gold pour, so any delay leaves the developer paying interest without Cariboo revenue.
What to watch: the first gold pour, planned for early 2029. Each quarter of delay after April 2029 would add about US$17 million of interest, by our math, paid from the developer's own cash.
Share Count Up 63% From a Year Ago
Osisko Gold has paid for much of its growth by selling new shares. The average share count in the third quarter stood 63% above a year earlier, after a February share sale and exercises of warrants, rights to buy shares at a set price.
- Shares sold in October to Trafigura, Cariboo's future gold buyer: 9.6 million
- Warrants outstanding: 116.4 million
- Shares the convertible bonds could create: about 81.6 million
- Possible new shares from both, by our math: about 198 million
Each new share takes part of Cariboo's future cash. Not every warrant will turn into a share, and Osisko Gold can settle the convertible bonds in cash instead. But the possible pool stays large next to about 316 million shares today.
What to watch: warrant exercises in the fourth quarter, which bring in cash and add shares at once. Large exercises would show owners, not lenders, paying for more of the build.
👓 Other Themes
Utah Sales Earned More per Ounce
By our math, Osisko Gold earned about $6,119 for each ounce it sold in Utah, 22% above a year ago. The release gives no gold price, so the gain may reflect prices, grade or payability, the share of gold a buyer pays for. Better prices help the test mine now, but Cariboo sells nothing until 2029.
Accounting Charges Drove the Quarter's Loss
Osisko Gold lost $57.7 million in the third quarter, and most of the loss used no cash. Its warrants gained value, which forced a $25.6 million charge. Repaying Appian early cost another $20.9 million. Without those and a derivative charge, the loss comes to about $9.4 million, by our math.
💲 Other KPIs
Bills owed to suppliers and accrued costs nearly doubled from June, up 97%, as construction picked up. They stood at $30.6 million in December and $50.5 million in June. Unpaid bills delay cash outflows, so part of the third quarter's building cost will leave the bank in the fourth.
The amount Osisko Gold sets aside for future site clean-up climbed 27% from June, as new obligations joined the estimate. It stood at $99.2 million in December. The developer expects to pay it out between 2026 and 2129, so it weighs on the balance sheet more than on near-term cash.
Head-office overhead rose 49% from a year ago. It had gained 60% and 34% in the first two quarters. The quarterly level has held near $10 million all year, but it now sits beside a large interest bill, so overhead weighs more on cash.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. Osisko Gold now plans to spend $183 million on Cariboo in the last three months of 2026. By our math, that leaves about $724 million of the remaining cost for 2027 to 2029. The developer cited earlier buying of long-lead equipment and mining fleet parts, and it plans a full spending breakdown in the first quarter of 2027.
New. The company set a $990 million estimate in September for the cost of finishing Cariboo from August 1. It spent about $83 million of that by the end of September, which leaves about $907 million. The figure already subtracts leases and expected revenue before production starts, so cash needs would grow if either falls short.
New. The schedule calls for the first gold in early 2029 and steady output in the second half of that year. Osisko Gold said in October that the project remained on schedule. Its 2025 feasibility study, the engineering report behind the plan, foresees about 190,000 ounces a year over a 10-year life.
New. The developer plans to finish about half of its 160,000-metre drilling plan at Cariboo by the end of 2026. The drilling aims to turn known gold into mineable rock with more certainty before production starts. Nine rigs on regional targets should finish their work this year.
Raised. A year ago the company planned little beyond care and maintenance in Utah. It now plans about US$14 million for a ramp into the old Eureka Standard mine, plus about US$5 million of drilling. Osisko Gold expects gold sales from test mining to pay for both, so the plan depends on Utah output holding up.
❓ Key Questions
When will the Trafigura prepayment deal be signed?
The prepayment of up to US$120 million sits in Osisko Gold's funding plan but remains non-binding. The company expects final agreements in the fourth quarter. Without them, the cushion above the remaining Cariboo cost gets smaller.
How much of the extra spending is new cost?
The company says it bought long-lead equipment early. A breakdown that keeps the $990 million total would confirm that it only moved costs forward. Osisko Gold plans that breakdown for the first quarter of 2027.
What did the Lowhee drilling check actually show?
The company said its check of closely spaced drilling showed "deposit variability consistent with expectations" but gave no grade or tonnage comparison. Readers need those numbers to judge the reserve the mine plan rests on.
Who leads permitting now, and which approvals remain?
Sarah Harrison, vice president for permitting and compliance, left in November, and an outside firm, Greenwood Environmental, took over the work. The company still lists remaining authorizations and permit amendments among its construction risks.
How many ounces will the Utah test mine sell?
Ounces sold fell 43% from the second quarter. The Eureka Standard ramp and the Utah drilling depend on these sales, so a target for 2027 ounces would show whether the plan can pay for itself.