The New York Times Company (NYT) Q3 2026 earnings review
New York Times subscriber additions jump, but digital advertising slows
The New York Times Company added readers much faster this quarter while its digital advertising boom cooled off. Revenue grew 10% to $769 million and profit per share excluding one-offs rose 15% as the publisher signed up 420,000 net new digital subscribers. Chief executive Meredith Kopit Levien credited engagement across the product portfolio, but by our math the fourth-quarter category plans point to total revenue growth slowing to 8%.
| Revenue | $768.5M +9.7% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Digital-only net subscriber additions | 420,000 280,000 last quarter |
| Digital advertising revenue growth | +12.0% missed 15–19% outlook |
| Q4 total revenue outlook (implied) | +8.0% middle of category plans, by our math |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because surging subscriber additions and tighter cost control outweighed a slowdown in advertising. Operating costs excluding one-offs landed inside the company's plan for the first time in five quarters, and the 420,000 subscriber jump puts the 15 million subscriber goal well within reach. The bad news: digital advertising missed its outlook as it lapped last year's expansion of ad slots, and average monthly revenue per digital reader grew just 1.4%.
The question now is whether the third-quarter subscriber jump came from heavy introductory discounts on standalone games and cooking apps that will hold back average prices. If new readers bought the full bundle on promotion, average revenue per reader will rebound as discounts expire; if they only bought single apps, price growth will stay muted. Fourth-quarter average revenue per digital subscriber will show which happened.
🐂 Bull Case
Digital Subscriptions Added 420,000 Readers
The New York Times Company sells digital subscriptions to its flagship news report alongside games, cooking, audio, shopping advice and The Athletic sports site. "Subscriber growth was powered by strong engagement and retention across our portfolio," chief executive Meredith Kopit Levien said. The publisher added 420,000 net new digital-only subscribers in the third quarter, up from 280,000 in the second quarter, lifting digital-only subscribers 12.4% from a year ago to 13.22 million.
Including print, total subscribers reached 13.76 million. That jump matters because the company aims to reach 15 million subscribers, a target it previously dated for the end of 2027. After adding 410,000 total subscribers this quarter, the publisher needs about 248,000 net additions per quarter over the next five quarters by our math, down from the 275,000 pace required three months ago.
What to watch: fourth-quarter net digital subscriber additions. A reading above 250,000 would keep the publisher ahead of the pace needed to reach 15 million subscribers by the end of 2027.
Operating Costs Stayed Inside the Plan
For four straight quarters, The Times spent more on operating costs, excluding one-offs and depreciation, than its own quarterly outlook planned. Those overruns averaged 1.6 percentage points above the middle of its target range and raised the risk that high spending would eat into profit margins if revenue slowed. In the third quarter, operating costs excluding one-offs rose 8.7% from a year ago to $618.9 million, landing inside the 8% to 9% outlook.
The fourth-quarter outlook confirms the tighter cost control, calling for operating costs excluding one-offs to grow 6% to 8%, down from 9.7% in last year's fourth quarter. General and administrative overhead rose 0.3 percentage points of revenue to 11.2% on "one-time promotional expenses related to the 175th anniversary of the Company," while sales and marketing also rose 0.3 percentage points to 11.7%.
What to watch: fourth-quarter operating cost growth excluding one-offs against the 6% to 8% plan. A second reading inside the target range would show that variable bonus accruals are now properly built into the budget.
Newsroom Costs Dropped as a Share of Sales
Even with higher journalism pay and anniversary promotions, operating profit excluding one-offs and depreciation rose 13.9% from a year ago to $149.6 million, lifting the margin by 0.8 percentage points to 19.5%. Cost of revenue — the expense of running the newsroom, printing the paper and delivering digital content — grew 7.0% to $373.5 million, falling by 1.2 percentage points as a share of revenue to 48.6% by our math.
High-margin revenue from affiliate referrals, licensing and other sources also beat the company's 2% to 5% outlook, rising 6.2% to $78.4 million. The digital portion of that line, which comes from Wirecutter shopping referrals and content licensing deals, grew 10.6% from a year ago to $54.4 million by our math, overcoming "a shift in the timing of a marketing promotion by one of our partners" into the second quarter.
What to watch: fourth-quarter operating profit margin excluding one-offs. By our math, the middle of the fourth-quarter category outlooks points to a 24.7% margin, up from 24.0% a year ago.
🐻 Bear Case
Digital Advertising Missed and Will Slow Again
Digital advertising had been the publisher's fastest-growing business over the past year, expanding between 20.3% and 31.6% each quarter as the company added ad slots to its games, sports and audio products. That expansion is now lapping last year's big increase in ad supply. In the third quarter, digital advertising grew 12.0% from a year ago to $109.9 million, attributed to "continued marketer demand and growth in advertising supply".
- Third-quarter digital ad growth: 12.0%, missing the 15% to 19% outlook after four straight beats
- Fourth-quarter digital ad outlook: about 8% to 12% growth, down from 24.9% a year ago
- Print revenue share: 20.7% of company sales by our math, with print ads down 4.3%
Because the rapid ad growth of the past four quarters relied on a one-time rollout of new ad inventory, the fourth-quarter outlook slows total advertising growth to about 5%. That pulls the company's overall implied fourth-quarter revenue growth down to 8.0% by our math.
What to watch: fourth-quarter digital advertising growth against the 8% to 12% plan. Another miss would show that marketer demand is softening alongside the tougher supply comparisons.
Price Gains Per Reader Cut in Half
Digital-only average revenue per user (ARPU), the average monthly fee a digital subscriber pays over a 28-day billing cycle, is the company's main pricing lever. In the first half of 2026, raising the price of the digital bundle for long-time readers lifted ARPU growth to 3.1%. In the third quarter, ARPU rose 1.4% from a year ago to $9.93, and ticked down one cent from the second quarter.
The company attributed the year-over-year gain to "subscribers transitioning from promotional to higher prices and price increases on certain tenured subscribers". However, adding 420,000 new readers on introductory discounts diluted the average price. Because The Times stopped publishing subscriber counts and ARPU broken down by bundle, news-only and single-product tiers after 2025, outside investors cannot verify how many new readers bought cheap standalone games or cooking subscriptions.
What to watch: fourth-quarter digital-only ARPU. If ARPU falls below $9.93 while digital subscription revenue grows at the 13.5% outlook middle, new subscribers are joining at lower introductory prices.
Video Spending Still Lacks a Single Number
Levien said the publisher grew profit while "continuing to invest in growth areas like video", and praised its focus on "human-made journalism and product experiences that people seek out directly". Video and direct app visits are the company's answer to search engines and artificial intelligence tools sending fewer readers to news websites.
Yet for a fifth straight quarter, the earnings release gives no video viewership, watch time, revenue or spending figures. At the same time, legal bills from suing artificial intelligence developers over unauthorized copying of Times journalism rose 57.0% from a year ago to $3.8 million in the quarter, reaching $12.6 million over nine months. The company excludes those legal bills from its adjusted profit even though it has paid them for 11 consecutive quarters.
What to watch: any quantified video engagement or revenue figure on the conference call or in the quarterly filing. Continued silence leaves the return on video spending impossible to verify.
👓 Other Themes
Tax Law Boosts Cash Flow Before Fading
Federal tax legislation known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act lowered the publisher's cash tax payments by $65 million in 2025 and will save about $60 million in 2026. The company said it does not expect the majority of this cash benefit to continue after 2026. Stripping that $60 million from the $593.4 million of free cash flow generated over the past 12 months leaves a normalized baseline of $533.4 million by our math.
💲 Other KPIs
Free cash flow — operating cash flow minus capital spending — rose 10.9% from a year ago in the first nine months. Last year's figure included $33 million from selling excess printing-plant land in Queens; excluding that one-off land sale, nine-month free cash flow grew 21.1% by our math, lifting cash and marketable securities to $1.26 billion with zero debt.
Average diluted shares fell 1.3% from a year ago and 0.4% from the second quarter. The Times stepped up buybacks to $79.1 million in the third quarter — buying 1.16 million shares at an average price of $68.27 by our math — more than doubling the $35.4 million spent in the second quarter, with $146.0 million left on its authorization.
🔮 Guidance
New. The publisher plans for 13.5% growth at the middle of the range, down from 14.6% in the third quarter and 13.9% in last year's fourth quarter. The Times has met or beaten this category outlook in each of the last six quarters.
New. The middle of the range points to 10.0% growth, compared with 10.7% in the third quarter and 9.4% a year ago, as steady print subscription declines continue to weigh on the combined total.
New. The plan calls for about 8% to 12% growth (10% at the middle), slowing from 12.0% in the third quarter. The fourth quarter laps a 24.9% jump a year ago when the publisher rolled out new ad inventory across its digital products.
New. The outlook points to about 5% growth, down from 7.8% in the third quarter and 16.1% in last year's fourth quarter, reflecting both the tougher digital comparison and ongoing print advertising declines.
New. The plan calls for about 2% to 5% growth (3.5% at the middle), down from 6.2% in the third quarter. Combined with the subscription and ad targets, the category plans point to total fourth-quarter revenue growth of 8.0% by our math.
New. Cost growth is planned at 7.0% at the middle of the range, stepping down from 8.7% in the third quarter and 9.7% a year ago. By our math, that leaves operating profit margin excluding one-offs at 24.7% in the fourth quarter, up from 24.0% a year ago.
Trimmed. The publisher lowered the top end of its full-year capital spending plan by $5 million after spending $4 million in the third quarter and $26.4 million over the first nine months. By our math, the new $37.5 million middle leaves about $11.1 million of capital spending for the fourth quarter.
Unchanged. The full-year expectation stays at $85 million, including $25 million to $30 million for amortizing acquired intangible assets. With $62.8 million recorded in the first nine months, the plan leaves $22.2 million for the fourth quarter by our math.
Unchanged. The full-year target holds at $47.5 million at the middle of the range, supported by $1.26 billion in cash and marketable securities. After earning $33.7 million in the first nine months, that leaves $13.8 million for the fourth quarter by our math.
❓ Key Questions
What drove the 420,000 subscriber jump while price growth slowed?
Net digital additions rose from 280,000 in the second quarter to 420,000, but ARPU growth slowed from 3.1% to 1.4%. Without the discontinued category table, investors need to know how many new readers bought discounted single-product subscriptions versus the full bundle.
When will management disclose a viewership or revenue number for video?
Levien again highlighted video investments as a core priority, yet the release gives no video metrics and full-year capital spending was trimmed. Investors have no way to measure whether video is attracting readers or advertisers.
Why did digital advertising miss its outlook by five percentage points?
Digital ad growth dropped from 20.7% in the second quarter to 12.0%, missing the 15% to 19% target. How much of the miss came from lapping last year's ad-slot expansion versus weaker advertiser demand?
Will the 50% cash return target adjust when tax savings expire?
About $60 million of 2026 free cash flow comes from tax legislation benefits that will mostly not repeat in 2027. After spending $79.1 million on buybacks in the third quarter, how will management size repurchases next year?