NovaGold (NG) Q3 2026 earnings review
NovaGold moves to own all of Donlin, but spending doubles
NovaGold is spending far more to study its Alaskan gold mine project and to buy out its partner. The company has no production, so its loss widened to $36 million from about $16 million a year ago. Chief executive Gregory Lang wrote that the engineering study remains on schedule. NovaGold also raised its full-year spending plan by about 12% to cover legal and other professional fees for the deal.
| Net loss | $36.0M $15.6M a year ago |
|---|---|
| Net cash spending | $28.1M $12.4M a year ago |
| Cash and term deposits | $343.4M $370.2M three months earlier |
| Full-year spending plan | Raised $11.5M to about $110.0M, on fees for the Paulson deal |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because NovaGold agreed to take full ownership of Donlin while the engineering study and the federal review stayed on schedule. Today it pays 60% of the project's bills but holds only half the votes. One caution: cash fell again, and NovaGold expects to raise more capital later.
The question now is who pays to build the mine. Either lenders and partners carry most of the cost, or shareholders do through new shares. The engineering study, due in 2027, will set the bill.
🐂 Bull Case
NovaGold Agrees to Take All of Donlin
Donlin Gold is a planned open-pit gold mine in Alaska. NovaGold owns 60% of it and Paulson Advisers, an investment firm, owns 40%. The two share control equally, so NovaGold pays most of the bills with half the votes.
In July the partners signed a deal that puts all of Donlin under a new US parent company. Paulson will swap its stake for shares. Chief executive Gregory Lang wrote that the deal will "streamline corporate decision-making and increase operational and capital efficiency".
- Paulson's new shares: about 35% of the new company, counting options and warrants
- Current shareholders, Paulson included: about 65% of a company that owns the whole project
- Paulson's votes: capped at 19.99%, against an economic stake of about 40%
The terms favour current holders by our math, because 65% of the whole project is more than the 60% they hold today. But the new owner must fund all of Donlin's budget. By the same arithmetic, its share of the bills rises by about two-thirds.
What to watch: the shareholder vote on November 3 and the closing, which NovaGold expects by year-end. Approval would give one owner full control before the engineering study sets the mine's cost.
The Mine Study Stays on Schedule for 2027
The bankable feasibility study is the engineering report that sets a mine's design and cost, and lenders rely on it. Chief executive Gregory Lang wrote that it "remains on schedule for completion in 2027".
The spending matches that claim. NovaGold's share of project costs reached $24.0 million, more than three times the level of a year ago. Fluor, the lead engineer, is combining work from specialist firms. Donlin's own staff grew from about 35 to 77 since January.
What to watch: the finished study in 2027 and its construction cost. A figure well above the estimate in the 2025 technical report would make the mine harder to finance.
Federal Review Arrived on Schedule
A federal court ordered agencies in 2025 to study what a larger spill from the mine's waste dam would do. The court left Donlin's permits in place while the agencies wrote that extra review.
The US Army Corps of Engineers published the draft on September 23, matching the September target in the federal permitting schedule. Chief executive Gregory Lang wrote that the document "analyzes a larger theoretical tailings dam release". The public can comment until October 23, and NovaGold anticipates the final version in April 2027.
What to watch: the final review in April 2027. A final document that supports the existing permits would answer the federal court's one objection before the owners decide on construction.
🐻 Bear Case
Cash Covers the Study, Not the Mine
The release called its cash position a "Robust treasury", and NovaGold said it "is fully funded to complete the Donlin Gold BFS", the engineering study. That claim covers the study and one debt payment. It does not cover construction.
- Cash and term deposits: $343.4 million, down $49.1 million since February
- Barrick note: NovaGold plans to pay $100 million in the fourth quarter to retire a $177.5 million debt
- Initial cost of the mine in the 2025 technical report: $9.2 billion
Paying the note early is sensible, because it cancels debt at a 44% discount by our math. But it takes almost a third of the cash. NovaGold also "expects to raise additional capital in the future to support subsequent project activities", starting with detailed engineering.
The company wrote that project spending "will increase further assuming the closing of the Transactions occurs by year-end 2026". So NovaGold will spend its cash faster next year, before any construction starts.
What to watch: cash at November 30, after the Barrick payment. By our math the spending plan and that payment leave about $205 million. A lower figure would mean the deal cost more than planned.
Deal Fees Push Overhead Plan Up 58%
Corporate overhead is what NovaGold spends on salaries, lawyers and its head office. In the first quarter, finance chief Peter Adamek said professional fees would decline through the year and stay within the plan.
The July deal with Paulson reversed that. NovaGold raised its overhead plan to about $31.2 million from $19.7 million, and said legal work for the deal caused the increase.
- Professional fees: $6.3 million, against $1.0 million a year ago
- Share of overhead expense: 52%, up from 16%
The higher plan stops at November 30. NovaGold said it leaves out the fees and closing costs it expects in early fiscal 2027. So the full cost of the deal is still unknown.
What to watch: fourth-quarter overhead, where the plan implies about $8 million before share-based pay by our math. A higher number would mean the deal costs more than the raised plan allows.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Four standing risks got no new numbers this quarter. Each one depends on a decision or a document that sits outside these results, so readers should track when each arrives.
- Alaska Supreme Court: it heard the challenge to a state water-quality permit on June 3 and has not ruled; a ruling for the state would end the last state-court challenge.
- Mine financing: no lender, amount or terms yet; the first signed financing would show who carries the cost.
- Dam safety certificates: the state may issue them in 2028; NovaGold plans to submit detailed designs by early 2027.
- Gas supply: no update on the non-binding pipeline letter with Glenfarne; a binding contract would settle the mine's energy cost.
👓 Other Themes
The Deal Will Bring a One-Time Paper Gain
After closing, the new parent will put Donlin's full accounts on its own books, where today NovaGold reports only its share of the project's costs. The filing said the new parent expects to record a one-time gain with no cash attached when it revalues Donlin. Readers should set that gain aside when they compare the next results with this quarter's loss.
Two Advisers Hired to Plan Mine Financing
Donlin Gold appointed Endeavour Financial and Macquarie Capital to advise on paying for the mine. Chief executive Gregory Lang wrote that they will weigh "conventional project finance, infrastructure financing, and potential support from governmental agencies and/or sovereign wealth funds". The appointment starts the work but names no lender and no amount, so it changes no numbers yet.
💲 Other KPIs
The loss more than doubled from $15.6 million a year ago, because study costs and deal fees both rose. Over nine months the loss was $77.0 million, slightly below last year. But last year included a $39.6 million one-time warrant charge. Without it, the nine-month loss rose about 95% by our math.
Liabilities grew 4.7% in three months, the fastest pace in a year by our math. Growth stayed below 2.5% in each of the prior three quarters. Most of the balance is the note NovaGold owes Barrick, which grows as interest accrues.
The share count is 7.8% higher than a year ago, after NovaGold sold 31.0 million new shares in February. It has barely moved since. Warrants, options and share awards could add up to 37.4 million more, before any shares go to Paulson.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The plan now calls for about $110.0 million of spending this year. By our math, that leaves about $38 million for the fourth quarter, against $28.1 million in the third. NovaGold said fees for the Paulson deal explain the whole $11.5 million increase. It is the first change to this plan this year.
Raised. Overhead before share-based pay now runs about 58% above the original plan. NovaGold said it had already spent $7.7 million of the extra fees by August and expects $3.8 million more in the fourth quarter. The plan leaves out any fees that fall in fiscal 2027.
Unchanged. NovaGold still plans to send about $78.8 million to the project for 2026 work, its 60% share of the budget. By our math, nine months of funding leave about $22 million for the fourth quarter. Actual payments may run higher, because NovaGold said it will pay for December's work in November. That month belongs to fiscal 2027.
Unchanged. NovaGold still targets 2027 for the finished engineering study, and said the work remains on schedule. The study leads to a construction decision, and this release gives no date for that decision.
Unchanged. NovaGold intends to use its option to retire the Barrick note for $100 million before the December 3 deadline. Management believes cash on hand covers both the payment and the engineering study.
New. NovaGold expects to complete the purchase of Paulson's 40% stake by year-end. Shareholders vote on November 3, and the deal also needs court, regulatory and stock-exchange approvals.
❓ Key Questions
How much will full ownership add to 2027 spending?
NovaGold funds 60% of Donlin today and would fund all of it after the deal. The 2026 project budget was $131.4 million in total. The company gave no budget for 2027, the year it plans to finish the study.
Which measure does the $31.2 million overhead plan use?
By our math, NovaGold reported $15.0 million of cash overhead in nine months. Overhead expense before share-based pay was $23.2 million. The two measures leave very different amounts for the fourth quarter.
What will the Paulson deal cost in fiscal 2027?
The raised plan covers fees only through November 30. NovaGold said it expects more professional fees and closing costs in early 2027, but it gave no figure.
What will the study say the mine costs?
Engineers are now preparing a more detailed cost estimate than the one in the 2025 technical report. Every financing option the new advisers weigh depends on that number, and NovaGold has shared no interim figure.
What did this year's exploration survey find?
Chief executive Gregory Lang said in the first quarter that a modest survey programme would start after the snow melted. This release reports no results, and says the owners have systematically explored less than 7.5% of the land.