Newmont (NEM) Q3 2026 earnings review
Newmont settles its Nevada dispute, but 2027 costs will rise
High metal prices and a burst of silver and copper output lifted Newmont's profit even as gold volumes stayed below last year. Revenue rose 15% from a year ago to $6.4 billion, and free cash flow reached $1.9 billion. Chief executive Natascha Viljoen improved the full-year cost outlook, because revenue from those secondary metals offset the bill for mining gold.
| Revenue | $6.36B +15% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $2.20 +29% from a year ago |
| Gold by-product all-in sustaining cost | $1,454/oz Full-year plan improved to $1,520/oz |
| 2027 gold production indication | Low-to-mid single-digit growth ~5.4M oz by our math vs 5.26M oz in 2026 |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because solving the Nevada dispute with Barrick for $1.95 billion offsets a weak first look at 2027. Ending the feud brings the Fourmile deposit into the joint venture and removes a major governance risk, but the 2027 preview points to only about 5.4 million ounces of gold by our math alongside higher unit costs and a $500 million jump in project spending.
The question now is whether rising mining costs are a temporary byproduct of high gold royalties and mine sequencing or a permanent climb toward $2,000 per ounce. If costs are mostly tied to metal prices and sequencing, margins will hold up when new projects start; if inflation is sticky, the 2027 recovery will squeeze cash flow. February's formal 2027 outlook will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Nevada Joint Venture Dispute Settled for $1.95 Billion
Newmont owns 38.5% of Nevada Gold Mines (NGM), a joint venture operated by partner Barrick that produces about afifth of Newmont's gold. A dispute had hung over the partnership since February, when Newmont issued a notice of default alleging Barrick diverted resources to its own Fourmile property.
The two miners amended their agreement this quarter to include "the contribution of previously excluded assets including Barrick's Fourmile and Newmont's Fiberline and Mike". Newmont will make a "planned payment of $1.95 billion to Barrick under the terms of the amended NGM agreement" in the fourth quarter. That payment settles the standoff, folds the disputed deposit into the shared venture, and leaves Newmont with $1.3 billion of net cash by our math.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter filing for the exact ownership terms, reserve additions, and capital schedule for Fourmile inside the joint venture. Those numbers will show what return the company gets for its $1.95 billion outlay.
Other Metals Cut the Headline Cost Outlook
Newmont tracks its unit cost through by-product all-in sustaining costs (AISC), which subtracts revenue from copper, silver, lead, and zinc from the cost of mining gold. Chief executive Natascha Viljoen said the miner is on track for an "improved full-year cost outlook, supported by disciplined operational execution in the third quarter".
- Third-quarter by-product AISC: $1,454 per ounce, down 10% from last quarter
- Full-year by-product AISC outlook: cut 9.5% to $1,520 per ounce, from $1,680
- Cadia gold output: 61 thousand ounces, up from 34 thousand after April's earthquake
- Peñasquito silver output: 11 million ounces, up 57% from last quarter
Operating costs before depreciation and reclamation fell 1.6 percentage points of revenue from a year ago, to 33.7%. Furthermore, regulators allowed cave building to resume at Cadia's PC1-2 expansion, and workers finished the shaft at Australia's Tanami Expansion 2 ahead of schedule for a first-half 2027 start.
What to watch: copper output in the fourth quarter, which needs 32 thousand tonnes by our math to reach the full-year plan of 102 thousand. Hitting that mark would confirm Cadia is back at full speed.
Buybacks Cut Share Count by 10% Since Early 2024
Newmont's capital framework pays a fixed $1.1 billion annual dividend pool and sends excess free cash flow to share buybacks. Because the company divides that fixed pool across fewer shares each year, the per-share dividend grows as the share count shrinks. The miner also argues that buying back stock gives each remaining share a larger claim on its gold production.
The company spent $1.78 billion on buybacks during the third quarter and $1.6 billion since the July earnings call, leaving $2.8 billion on its $6.0 billion authorization. Diluted shares fell 4.5% from a year ago to 1,051 million, and total shares are down by over 115 million since February 2024. That lower share count turned a 25% rise in profit excluding one-offs into 29% growth per share.
What to watch: the annual dividend reset in February 2027, when the board recalculates the quarterly payout from the lower share count. A hike above $0.26 per share would show the buyback formula is lifting shareholder income as promised.
🐻 Bear Case
Underlying Gold Costs Keep Rising
Newmont attributed its lower full-year cost outlook to "cost discipline and higher realized co-product pricing compared to guided assumptions". Yet the co-product cost table, which splits mining costs across all metals instead of using copper and silver sales to subsidize gold, shows the cost of mining an ounce of gold is still climbing.
- Co-product AISC: $1,963 per ounce, up 25.4% from a year ago and up 1.3% from last quarter
- Total costs applicable to sales: $2,143 million, up 9.8% from a year ago on 8.4% fewer gold ounces
- Reclamation expense: $199 million, up 0.9 percentage points of revenue from a year ago
- Fourth-quarter by-product AISC plan: $1,900 per ounce, up 30.7% from the third quarter
By-product costs fell in the third quarter only because Peñasquito mined a zone rich in silver and zinc, and silver output there will drop by half in the fourth quarter. Newmont also added a new oil sensitivity: every $10 per barrel move in oil adds $50 million in indirect costs for chemicals and explosives, on top of $60 million in direct diesel costs.
What to watch: co-product AISC in the fourth quarter, when sustaining capital spend hits its yearly peak of $600 million. A figure above $2,000 per ounce would push unit costs above the gold price Newmont uses to calculate its long-term reserves.
2027 Outlook Points to Small Volume Recovery and Higher Costs
Management has described 2026 as a volume trough on the road back to roughly 6 million ounces of annual gold production. In this release, Newmont gave its first numbers for 2027, projecting gold output to rise by a "low-to-mid single-digit percentage compared to 2026". By our math, a 3% increase on the 5.26 million ounce plan for 2026 equals about 5.42 million ounces in 2027.
That leaves the miner more than half a million ounces short of its 6 million ounce goal, and the 2027 preview comes with higher bills. Newmont said unit costs will rise next year on "inflation escalation above the 3 percent assumption incorporated for 2026 guidance, as well as higher diesel prices, unfavorable foreign exchange movements", and smaller silver credits from Peñasquito. Development capital will also climb by about $500 million.
What to watch: the formal 2027 outlook in February, when management sets exact ranges for production and unit costs. An AISC range above $1,650 per ounce would show that inflation and lower silver grades are eating up the benefit of higher gold volumes.
Fourth-Quarter Production Target Needs an Ahafo North Jump
Newmont kept its full-year gold target at 5,260 thousand ounces and set a fourth-quarter plan of 1,365 thousand ounces, up 4.8% from the third quarter. Reaching that fourth-quarter peak relies on higher grades at Tanami and Lihir, plus a ramp-up at Ahafo North, the new mine in Ghana that opened in late 2025.
Ahafo North has not yet shown that step-up. The mine produced 69 thousand ounces this quarter, after 68 thousand in the second quarter and 62 thousand in the first. Hitting its initial 315 thousand ounce full-year site plan would require 116 thousand ounces in the fourth quarter by our math, a 68% jump in one quarter. Meanwhile, intensifying El Niño drought conditions threaten water supplies and output at Lihir.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gold production at Ahafo North and Lihir. A shortfall at either mine would pull full-year output below the 5.26 million ounce midpoint.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Several standing cost, tax, and environmental risks received no new numbers in the third-quarter earnings release.
- Ghana tax and royalty changes: no update on the sliding-scale royalty or local-contractor rules, while Ahafo South AISC stayed high at $2,261 per ounce.
- Closure and environmental liabilities: Newmont booked $116 million in new reclamation charges at closed sites, and the full quarterly filing will show whether the $3.58 billion Yanacocha liability changed.
- Exploration strategy: the detailed exploration update management promised for the third quarter did not appear in the release.
👓 Other Themes
Red Chris Block Cave Cost Set at $4.2–4.8 Billion
Newmont published project numbers for the Red Chris Block Cave, an underground copper-gold expansion in British Columbia where it owns 70%. Development capital will run $4.2–4.8 billion on a 100% basis after a CAD$500 million Canadian government grant. Management pushed the "full-funds investment decision in early 2027", with construction starting in 2027 and first commercial production targeted for 2033.
💲 Other KPIs
Free cash flow rose 21.7% from a year ago on higher gold prices, but fell 13.3% from last quarter. Working capital — cash tied up in day-to-day operations — drained $565 million as unpaid customer bills rose by $318 million and reclamation payments took $256 million, while capital spending rose 22.6% from last quarter to $879 million.
Sales climbed 15.2% from a year ago and 4.0% from last quarter. Newmont sold its gold for an average of $4,317 per ounce, up 22.0% from $3,539 a year ago, though down $97 per ounce from the second quarter. Copper prices rose 48.0% from a year ago to $6.91 per pound.
Newmont ended September with $8,827 million in cash against $5,584 million of debt and leases, down from $3,411 million of net cash in June. After paying $1.95 billion to Barrick in the fourth quarter, net cash will drop to about $1.29 billion by our math, near its $1 billion target.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year target stays at 5,260 thousand ounces, down 10.7% from last year's total and down 7.4% from last year's core mines by our math. Newmont also issued a fourth-quarter target of 1,365 thousand ounces, up 4.8% from the third quarter, which leaves the four quarters adding up to 5,261 thousand ounces.
Improved. Newmont lowered its full-year all-in sustaining cost forecast by $160 per ounce, or 9.5%, after strong silver and copper sales in the first nine months. However, it set the fourth-quarter forecast at $1,900 per ounce, up 30.7% from the third quarter, as Peñasquito silver output halves and sustaining capital peaks.
Improved. The miner cut its full-year direct production cost outlook by $130 per ounce, or 12.3%, to $925 per ounce. For the fourth quarter, it projects $1,250 per ounce, a 50.2% jump from the third quarter's $832 per ounce as co-product metal volumes drop.
Unchanged. Newmont kept its full-year budget for upkeep at existing mines at $1,950 million and set the fourth-quarter plan at $600 million, up 14.3% from the $525 million spent in the third quarter.
Unchanged. Full-year spending on new mine projects stays at $1,400 million. The fourth-quarter plan of $520 million is up 46.9% from the third quarter's $354 million as work wraps up on Cadia PC2-3 and ramps up at Tanami.
Unchanged. With 27 million ounces of silver produced in the first nine months, the 32 million ounce full-year target implies about 5 million ounces in the fourth quarter by our math, down from 11 million in the third quarter. Copper needs 32 thousand tonnes in the fourth quarter, up from 23 thousand.
Unchanged. All full-year corporate expense budgets and the 33% tax rate excluding one-offs remain where they started the year. Nine-month general and administrative spending of $235 million and net interest expense of $105 million are both running well below three-quarters of their annual budgets.
❓ Key Questions
What returns will the $1.95 billion Nevada payment generate?
Newmont will pay Barrick $1.95 billion to add Fourmile, Fiberline, and Mike to Nevada Gold Mines. Management did not disclose the reserve ounces added, the development bill required to mine Fourmile, or when those ounces will start producing.
When will gold production return to 6 million ounces?
The new 2027 indication points to roughly 5.4 million ounces by our math, and Red Chris will not produce until 2033. Investors still lack a year-by-year bridge showing when or how the portfolio reaches the 6 million ounce target.
How much of the 2027 cost increase is permanent?
Co-product AISC reached $1,963 per ounce this quarter, and Newmont warned that 2027 unit costs will climb further on inflation above 3%, diesel, and lower silver credits. How much of that cost base would stay in place if gold prices fell?
Where is the promised update on exploration strategy?
On the second-quarter call, chief executive Natascha Viljoen promised a deeper look at Newmont's exploration strategy in the third quarter. The release contains no exploration update, leaving open how the miner plans to replace reserves beyond its current projects.