McEwen (MUX) Q3 2026 earnings review
McEwen's gold output falls 23%, and snow delays copper plans
Simultaneous operating problems at all three of McEwen's gold and silver mines wiped out the benefit of higher metal prices. Output fell 23% from a year ago, pushing the miner to a $37 million net loss even though its average selling price climbed 19%. The company replaced leadership at its Nevada mine in August and said production and costs recovered in October, so it kept its full-year targets intact.
| Total metal production | 22,852 GEOs -23% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Revenue (100%-owned mines) | $43.6M -14% from a year ago |
| 100%-owned all-in sustaining cost | $3,606 / oz +37% from a year ago |
| Full-year production and cost outlook | Unchanged middle of the range: 114,500 GEOs |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because mine setbacks drained cash and winter weather delayed the Los Azules copper project. Record Andes snowfall blocked the site road and pushed the copper project's final investment decision back six months to mid-2027, while by our math the unchanged 2026 cost targets at Fox and San José now require impossible fourth-quarter cost drops. On the positive side, $58 million in Argentine dividends and a $55 million property sale in Ontario rebuilt the cash cushion after quarter-end.
The question now is whether October's rebound at the Nevada and Ontario mines is the start of a steady recovery or just a brief bounce. If the new pit procedures hold, cash flow will recover to fund the 2027 mine builds; if grades slip again, McEwen will have to sell its Discovery Mining stock or raise capital. Fourth-quarter production and unit costs will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Asset Sales and Argentine Dividends Rebuild Cash
McEwen is a gold and silver producer that wants to fund its mine builds without selling new stock. Its 49%-owned San José mine in Argentina has paid $58.3 million in cash dividends so far this year, beating the company's $40 million to $50 million full-year forecast.
The miner also raised cash by selling assets outside its main operations. In August, it sold a loan receivable from its McEwen Copper subsidiary for $13.6 million in cash. In October, it sold two unused properties in Timmins, Ontario to Discovery Mining for $5 million in cash and $50 million in Discovery Mining stock.
These inflows matter because operations burned cash in the third quarter, pulling cash and marketable securities down by $32.2 million to $59.5 million. The extra dividends and the $55 million Timmins sale give the group a fresh cushion to pay for its Canadian and Mexican mine construction.
What to watch: fourth-quarter cash and marketable securities, plus any timeline to sell the $50 million Discovery Mining stock. Converting those shares into cash would cover next year's construction budget without borrowing.
October Output Rebounds After Nevada Leadership Change
Production at the Gold Bar mine in Nevada fell 24% from a year ago to 6,215 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs, which combine gold and silver into one measure). McEwen blamed "poor management oversight" and decided to "make changes to its leadership team in late August" while adding pit drilling and grade checks.
Because Gold Bar uses heap leaching — where rock sits on a pad for 45 to 60 days while solution dissolves the gold — the fixes only showed up in October. Daily output reached 108 ounces in October, up from 68 in the third quarter, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a measure of total mine operating and upkeep costs) dropped to $2,873 per ounce from $3,520.
One good month does not settle the concern, because Gold Bar has missed plans before, and by our math the mine still needs 11,559 ounces in the fourth quarter to hit the middle of its annual target. Still, October's pace of 3,353 ounces puts that fourth-quarter goal within reach if the pit holds its grade.
What to watch: full fourth-quarter production and unit costs at Gold Bar when annual results arrive. Hitting 10,000 ounces or more for the quarter would show the new pit procedures work beyond a single month.
Stock Mine and El Gallo Advance Toward 2027
McEwen plans to lift total output to between 250,000 and 300,000 GEOs a year by 2030 by opening new mines near its existing mills. At the Fox Complex in Ontario, the company spent $12.2 million on underground work at the new Stock Mine this quarter, keeping the build on schedule for December mining and commercial production in the first half of 2027.
In Mexico, crews started building the mill at the El Gallo mine, aiming for first gold in the fourth quarter of 2027 and 20,000 ounces a year. Because Stock will replace the expiring Froome mine with softer rock and lower royalties, and El Gallo needs little ongoing development, these two projects are the main bridge to lower costs next year.
What to watch: confirmation in the fourth-quarter report that underground mining at Stock started in December as scheduled. A timely start is needed for the Fox Complex to reach its 35,000-ounce target in 2027.
🐻 Bear Case
Mine Problems Wipe Out Higher Gold Prices
Higher gold and silver prices were supposed to generate cash to pay for McEwen's expansion, and the company's average selling price rose 19% from a year ago to $4,151 per ounce. Instead, simultaneous troubles at all three operating mines cut total production by 23% to 22,852 GEOs and drove revenue down 14% to $43.6 million.
- Gross margin: 9.2% of revenue, down 6.3 percentage points from 15.4% a year ago by our math
- Direct production costs: 73.2% of revenue, up 3.5 percentage points from a year ago
- Depreciation and depletion (wear and tear on mines): 16.2% of revenue, up 1.1 percentage points
- Net loss: $36.7 million, compared with a $0.5 million loss a year ago
- Adjusted EBITDA (operating cash profit excluding one-offs): negative $10.9 million, down from positive $11.8 million
At the Fox Complex, finishing all remaining underground development at the Froome mine added $780 per ounce to costs, while milling low-grade stockpiles added $150. Even stripping out that $930 per ounce by our math, Fox's all-in sustaining cost was $2,795 per ounce, still up 19% from a year ago. When a miner loses money with gold above $4,100, its self-funded growth plan has very little room for operating mistakes.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gross profit and Adjusted EBITDA from the wholly owned mines. If October's lower unit costs hold through December, Adjusted EBITDA will return to positive territory.
Full-Year Cost Targets Need Impossible Fourth-Quarter Drops
McEwen kept its full-year consolidated and mine-by-mine cost forecasts unchanged, saying October costs at the Fox Complex were back inside the annual target range at $2,618 per ounce. Keeping the full-year targets intact suggests the third-quarter cost jump will average out by December.
The nine-month numbers tell a different story. Through September, all-in sustaining costs averaged $3,107 per ounce at Fox across 17,212 ounces, and $2,946 at San José across 43,388 ounces. By our math, hitting the middle of the full-year cost outlook ($2,750 at Fox and $2,400 at San José) would require fourth-quarter AISC to drop to about $1,317 per ounce at Fox and $1,092 per ounce at San José.
Neither mine has approached those cost levels in recent years, and Fox's improved October figure of $2,618 is still double what the full-year math requires. In addition, the company warned that Argentine inflation and a strong peso will keep pressuring San José costs through year-end, making a full-year cost miss at both sites almost certain.
What to watch: full-year 2026 all-in sustaining costs per ounce when fourth-quarter results are published. A finish above $2,750 per ounce company-wide will confirm that the third-quarter overruns were too large to make up in three months.
Andes Snowfall Pushes Los Azules Decision Into 2027
McEwen owns 46.3% of McEwen Copper, which is developing the Los Azules copper project in Argentina, plus a 1.25% royalty on its future sales. In prior quarters, the company aimed to reach a Final Investment Decision (FID, the formal commitment to build the mine) by the end of 2026 and start construction in early 2027.
The project won permits this quarter for its 3,000-bed camp and for connecting to Argentina's national power grid, and expanded its loan facility to $240 million. However, the company said "Exceptional snowfall in the Andes, the heaviest in more than two decades, has delayed the reopening of the site access road" until early 2027.
Because crews cannot reach the mountain site, McEwen Copper now targets FID and full project financing in mid-2027, six months later than before. The company warned that "Site works will start later than planned, and the delay may affect the construction schedule", which narrows the time left to hit its 2030 copper production goal.
What to watch: the updated Los Azules project schedule once road crews open the site in early 2027. That schedule will show whether first copper cathode production can still happen in 2030.
👓 Other Themes
Weather and Argentine Inflation Hit San José
At the San José mine in southern Argentina, record regional snowfall soaked the ore with moisture. To prevent wet clay from blocking the processing plant, operators fed the mill harder sulphide rock with lower gold and silver grades, cutting McEwen's share of output by 21% to 11,786 GEOs. The company also stated that "Argentine inflation and the relative strength of the peso are expected to continue affecting unit costs through the remainder of 2026".
💲 Other KPIs
Liquid holdings fell 35.1% from last quarter's $91.7 million, combining $49.1 million in cash and $10.4 million in marketable securities. Operating losses and mine development spending offset the $13.6 million loan sale, though the October Timmins property sale added $5 million in cash and $50 million in Discovery Mining shares after quarter-end.
Drilling spend rose 64.7% from $6.8 million a year ago and equalled 25.7% of third-quarter revenue. Nine-month exploration reached $28.0 million across Nevada, Ontario and Manitoba, topping the $25.7 million full-year budget the miner set in the second quarter and contributing to the wider quarterly net loss.
Share count rose 13.9% from 54.1 million a year ago and is up from 59.7 million last quarter. The US and Canadian miner issued stock earlier this year to buy Canadian Gold Corp and Golden Lake Exploration, expanding its resource base while increasing the share count ahead of its planned production ramp.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year plan points to 114,500 gold equivalent ounces at the middle of the range, down 1.0% from 2025. By our math, reaching the middle of the range leaves 30,305 ounces for Q4, which requires a 32.6% jump from Q3's depressed output.
Unchanged. The company kept the consolidated direct mining cost range it raised in Q2. After nine months, cash costs at the wholly owned mines averaged $2,579 per ounce and San José averaged $2,525, so both sit above the top end of the annual plan heading into the final quarter.
Unchanged. The middle of the range is $2,625 per ounce. Nine-month AISC stands at $3,035 per ounce for the wholly owned mines and $2,946 at San José, leaving the full-year target out of reach unless fourth-quarter upkeep costs fall far below October's reported rates.
Unchanged. The Nevada mine's forecast was cut from 39,000–43,000 ounces in Q2 and held steady this quarter. By our math, the 31,500-ounce middle of the range leaves 11,559 ounces for Q4, nearly double Q3's 6,215 ounces; October's rebound to 3,353 ounces puts the bottom of the range within sight.
Unchanged. Nine-month cash costs at Gold Bar are $2,772 per ounce after Q3 reached $3,248. Because October cash costs fell back to $2,768 per ounce following the August pit changes, the mine is on track to finish inside this annual range.
Unchanged. Nine-month AISC at Gold Bar sits at $2,975 per ounce. By our math, hitting the $3,050 middle of the range allows Q4 AISC of up to $3,179 per ounce, which looks achievable after October came in at $2,873.
Unchanged. The Ontario complex kept the higher target it set in Q2. With 17,212 ounces produced in the first nine months, by our math the mine needs only 4,288 ounces in Q4 to reach the 21,500-ounce middle of the range, slightly below Q3's 4,427 ounces.
Unchanged. Nine-month cash costs at Fox are $2,349 per ounce after Q3 rose to $2,911 on low-grade stockpile processing. October's cash cost of $2,531 per ounce is still above the top of the annual range, making the full-year target tight.
Unchanged. Nine-month AISC at Fox reached $3,107 per ounce because Q3 included all remaining Froome underground development. By our math, hitting the $2,750 middle of the range would require Q4 AISC of $1,317 per ounce, whereas October was $2,618.
Unchanged. McEwen's 49% share of the Argentine mine has produced 43,388 ounces through September. By our math, reaching the 61,500-ounce middle of the range requires 18,112 ounces in Q4, a 53.7% rebound from Q3's snow-hit output as dry weather allows higher-grade clay ore back into the mill.
Unchanged. Nine-month cash costs at San José are $2,525 per ounce after Q3 rose to $2,916. Because Argentine inflation and peso strength continue to lift local expenses, bringing the full-year average down into the $2,000–$2,200 band in a single quarter looks unrealistic.
Unchanged. Nine-month AISC is $2,946 per ounce after Q3 hit $3,414. By our math, reaching the $2,400 middle of the range would require Q4 AISC to fall to $1,092 per ounce across 18,112 ounces.
❓ Key Questions
Why keep full-year cost targets that require impossible Q4 drops?
Nine-month AISC is $3,107 per ounce at Fox and $2,946 at San José. By our math, hitting the middle of the unchanged annual targets requires Q4 AISC of $1,317 at Fox and $1,092 at San José, far below October's reported levels.
Will the Andes snow delay push Los Azules past 2030?
Road crews will not reach Los Azules until early 2027, pushing the Final Investment Decision to mid-2027 and delaying site works. Management has not yet said how much camp expansion will cost or whether first copper could slip into 2031.
Can McEwen sell its $50 million in Discovery Mining shares?
The Timmins property sale brought in $5 million in cash and $50 million in Discovery Mining stock. With cash down to $49.1 million and 2027 construction approaching, investors need to know if those shares carry lock-up limits before they can fund capex.
What is the new full-year budget for exploration spending?
McEwen raised its 2026 exploration budget to $25.7 million in Q2, but nine-month spending has already reached $28.0 million after an $11.2 million third quarter. The release did not state how much more the company plans to spend in Q4.