Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q2 2026 earnings review
Top-Line Momentum, Bottom-Line Stagnation
Kaspi.kz delivered solid double-digit top-line expansion in Q2, with consolidated revenue up 15% year-over-year to KZT 1.1 trillion. However, the bottom line tells a story of heavy investment and macroeconomic friction. Net income was completely flat at KZT 259 billion, as strong e-commerce gains were offset by high funding costs in Kazakhstan and aggressive ecosystem expansion in Türkiye. Despite the profitability pause, management remains highly confident in its cash generation, hiking the quarterly dividend by 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS.
🐂 Bull Case
Constant-currency e-Commerce GMV surged 28% YoY. More importantly, monetization is improving faster than volume, with value-added services (VAS) revenue jumping 49% and pushing the 3P take rate to an impressive 16.1%.
The Rabobank acquisition in Türkiye officially closed and was rapidly rebranded to Hepsi Bank. Concurrently, the Kaspi AI shopping assistant (Kasper) is seeing strong early adoption, pointing to future engagement gains.
🐻 Bear Case
While Fintech revenue grew 23%, adjusted EBITDA only managed 6% growth due to high funding costs. Similarly, Payments EBITDA was flat despite 13% volume growth.
Consolidated Net Income has failed to grow year-over-year, absorbing the financial weight of the Hepsiburada integration and elevated domestic interest rates.
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪
Neutral. The core consumer ecosystem is remarkably sticky and growing efficiently, but investors must accept that Kaspi is currently in a margin-dilutive investment cycle. The 18% dividend hike is the primary short-term reward for waiting out the Turkish expansion.
Key Themes
Kasper AI: A Glimpse into the Future of Shopping
Kaspi launched its proprietary AI shopping assistant, Kasper, in July. Early metrics indicate this is not just a gimmick: in under a month, 20% of eligible consumers tested it. Of those conversations, 80% yielded a tailored recommendation, and 60% of those successfully guided the user to a specific product. If this scales, Kaspi will fundamentally change its discovery funnel, driving higher conversion rates and cementing user loyalty through natural language interactions.
Value-Added Services (VAS) Propel E-Commerce
E-commerce is Accelerating on the bottom line, despite the law of large numbers. While constant-currency GMV grew 28%, VAS revenue (driven by advertising and delivery) surged 49%. This mix shift pushed the e-commerce 3P take rate up 160 basis points year-over-year to 16.1%. Kaspi is successfully transitioning from merely taking a cut of transactions to heavily monetizing merchant visibility and logistics.
Türkiye Expansion Enters the Fintech Phase
The final major puzzle piece for the Hepsiburada turnaround fell into place: Kaspi completed the Rabobank A.Ş. acquisition in July and immediately rebranded it to Hepsi Bank. The company is already piloting shopping loans integrated directly into Hepsiburada. This marks the beginning of importing Kaspi's highly profitable, credit-fueled 'Kazakhstan playbook' into a market of 85 million people.
Macro Headwinds Crushing Fintech Margins
Fintech segment growth is Decelerating at the profit line. While a strategic shift in loan mix drove the average net loan portfolio up 18% (and revenue up 23%), adjusted EBITDA only grew 6%. High domestic interest rates (funding costs) are severely compressing spreads. Management took action in August by cutting the 3-month deposit rate by 100 bps—the first cut in two years—but relief will take time to flow through the P&L.
Payments Segment Hits an Earnings Wall
The Payments segment presents a stark contradiction to the company's broader growth narrative. Despite the platform successfully processing 13% more volume (TPV KZT 12.7 trillion), and revenue growing 5%, adjusted EBITDA was completely Stable (flat) at KZT 98 billion. This zero-growth profit dynamic is the direct result of take-rate dilution (mix shift to QR) combined with heavy operating investments to roll out the biometric 'Kaspi Alaqan' (pay-by-palm) network.
Consolidated Profitability Remains Stagnant
Net income is Stable (0% YoY growth). Kaspi is running incredibly hard just to stand still on the bottom line. The dual burden of funding Turkish marketplace losses/bank integration and absorbing elevated central bank rates in Kazakhstan means that KZT 1.1 trillion in Q2 revenue yielded exactly the same KZT 259 billion in net income as it did a year ago.
Other KPIs
Accelerating. Up 18% sequentially from KZT 850 in Q1 2026. This aggressive hike serves as a strong signal from the Board that despite flat net income, free cash flow generation remains highly robust and sufficient to fund both the dividend hike and the ongoing Türkiye investments.
Decelerating slightly in growth rate (+9% YoY) compared to revenue (+11%), reflecting the continued consolidation of the EBITDA-breakeven Hepsiburada business, which dilutes the overall high-margin profile of the legacy Kazakhstan marketplace.
Guidance
Stable. Management reiterated its full-year guidance. Given Q1 grew 9% and Q2 grew 5%, achieving a ~5% full-year rate implies the second half of 2026 will see continued heavy investment (particularly in Hepsi Bank and Kaspi Alaqan) keeping profit growth in the low single digits.
Stable. Reiterated guidance implies robust ongoing consumer demand across both Kazakhstan and Türkiye, remaining the primary top-line engine for the ecosystem.
Management explicitly guided investors to look at the Average Net Loan Portfolio (up 18% in Q2) rather than Total Finance Volume (TFV). Because Kaspi is deliberately shifting its mix toward longer-duration loans (like auto and general purpose), TFV understates the actual revenue-generating power of the balance sheet.
Key Questions
Fintech Margin Trajectory
With the 100 bps reduction in the 3-month deposit rate in August, how quickly will this flow through to Fintech EBITDA, and is this the beginning of a broader rate-cutting cycle for Kaspi's liabilities?
Hepsi Bank Timeline
Now that Rabobank is officially rebranded as Hepsi Bank and shopping loans are piloting, what is the expected timeline for the Turkish Fintech segment to transition from a net investment drag to a positive EBITDA contributor?
Payments Monetization Floor
Payments EBITDA was flat due to Kaspi Alaqan investments and QR take-rate mix shift. At what point does the mix shift normalize, and when will the biometric infrastructure investments begin generating incremental profit rather than just consuming it?