Kaspi (KSPI) Q4 2025 earnings review
Türkiye Turnaround Gains Traction, But Core Earnings Growth Hits a Wall
Kaspi is undergoing a structural transition. Hepsiburada's integration in Türkiye is finally yielding impressive volume growth, with Q4 orders accelerating to +19% YoY. However, this top-line success masks severe margin compression and regulatory headwinds in the core Kazakhstan business. Q4 Net Income flatlined at +1% YoY, dragged down by high interest rates, higher reserve requirements, and early Türkiye investments. Looking ahead to FY26, management explicitly warned that bottom-line growth will lag top-line growth due to a new 25% corporate tax rate for banks. The FY26 guidance of just ~5% Adjusted EBITDA growth marks a dramatic deceleration from Kaspi's historical 20-30% bottom-line trajectory. On a positive note, the reinstatement of a KZT 850 quarterly dividend provides a much-needed buffer for shareholders during this investment phase.
🐂 Bull Case
The operational turnaround in Türkiye is working. Order growth accelerated sequentially all year, flipping from -11% in Q1 to +19% in Q4, validating management's heavy investments in logistics and marketing.
The resumption of the KZT 850 per ADS quarterly dividend signals confidence in underlying cash generation and ends the capital-return drought that characterized 2025.
🐻 Bear Case
FY26 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to grow just ~5%. Kazakhstan's incoming 25% bank tax and higher central bank reserve requirements will severely restrict profit growth, effectively creating an 'earnings recession' relative to historical norms.
Q4 Fintech TFV grew a mere 4% YoY, and Marketplace GMV grew just 3% YoY. High interest rates and lingering smartphone import restrictions continue to choke Kaspi's traditional high-margin growth engines.
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪
Neutral. The strategic rationale for the Türkiye expansion is proving out in top-line metrics, but the core Kazakhstan business is entering a period of prolonged regulatory and macro margin pressure. Investors must recalibrate expectations from high-growth tech to a mature, dividend-paying financial ecosystem in transition.
Key Themes
Hepsiburada Turnaround Accelerating
Management's primary objective in Türkiye—growing engagement to rival Kazakhstan levels—is bearing fruit. Hepsiburada's order growth accelerated steadily throughout 2025, reaching 19% YoY in Q4. Engaged consumers jumped 29% YoY. While purchases per consumer (6.7) still lag far behind Kaspi.kz (24.8), the trajectory confirms that the aggressive investments in next-day shipping (now 63% of orders) and marketing are capturing market share.
Macro and Regulatory Squeeze on Margins
The Kazakhstan regulatory environment has structurally shifted against Kaspi. Starting in 2026, the corporate tax rate for banks increases from 20% to 25%, adding a ~200 bps headwind to the consolidated tax rate. Furthermore, the National Bank's hike in minimum reserve requirements (with another step-up in April 2026) forces Kaspi to hold more non-interest-bearing cash. This guarantees that bottom-line growth will materially lag top-line growth in 2026.
Advertising and Services Expanding Take Rate
Marketplace revenue growth (+13% YoY in Q4) radically outperformed GMV growth (+3% YoY). This divergence is driven by Kaspi Advertising and Classifieds. Advertising revenue surged 45% YoY in Q4 and 64% for the full year. Consequently, the Marketplace take rate expanded by 80 bps YoY, proving Kaspi can extract more value per transaction even as gross merchandise volume slows.
Fintech Origination Grinding to a Halt
Management emphasizes the long-term potential of the Fintech platform, but Q4 metrics contradict the positive narrative. Total Finance Value (TFV) growth decelerated to a meager +4% YoY in Q4, down heavily from the mid-teens growth seen earlier in the year. High interest rates are crushing loan demand and simultaneously elevating Kaspi's deposit funding costs.
e-Grocery Scaling Profitably
The e-Grocery segment continues to defy the broader consumer slowdown. GMV grew 43% YoY in Q4 and 53% for the full year. As the company expands its dark store footprint into new cities, this segment provides a crucial, high-frequency buffer against the volatility of high-ticket discretionary items.
Technology Innovation: Kaspi Alaqan
Kaspi launched its 'pay-by-palm' biometric service, Kaspi Alaqan, in Almaty. Adoption has been explosive, with roughly a third of the city's adult population registering within just 3 months. This increases the friction to leave the Kaspi ecosystem and paves the way for faster, cardless offline checkout, further entrenching Kaspi QR infrastructure.
Other KPIs
Stable. The Payments segment remains a reliable cash cow, with Q4 transactions up 12% and revenue up 7%. The lag between revenue and TPV growth reflects the ongoing take-rate dilution as consumers shift toward lower-fee QR payments.
Accelerating engagement despite slower dollar-value growth. While overall GMV was dragged down to +11% for the year by weak smartphone sales, the sheer volume of purchases (+35%) indicates consumer habits remain deeply tied to the platform.
Stable. Despite the high-interest-rate environment and macroeconomic uncertainty in Kazakhstan, credit quality remains completely intact. This validates Kaspi's data-driven, short-duration underwriting model.
Guidance
Decelerating. This is the first time guidance explicitly includes Türkiye. The meager 5% consolidated growth target highlights the severe impact of Kazakhstan's new 25% corporate tax rate, higher reserve requirements, and the intentional near-term breakeven strategy at Hepsiburada.
Stable. Management explicitly stated they will deliberately manage Hepsiburada to breakeven in the near term. All incremental gross profit will be reinvested into faster top-line growth (marketing, next-day shipping) rather than flowing to the bottom line.
Reversing. Following a pause in capital returns to fund the Hepsiburada acquisition in 2025, the Board has recommended a resumption of dividends. Management stated this level is sustainable for the remainder of 2026.
Key Questions
Türkiye Rabobank Integration Timeline
With the planned $300M investment into Rabobank upon closing, how quickly can we expect Kaspi to launch its core, high-margin Fintech lending and payment products to Hepsiburada's 11.8M consumer base?
Margin Floor in Kazakhstan
Given the ~200 bps tax hit and the step-up in reserve requirements in April 2026, where do you see the structural floor for Kazakhstan net income margins, and will pricing adjustments on loans or merchant fees be used to offset the tax?
Marketplace GMV Weakness
Q4 Marketplace GMV grew only 3% YoY. Beyond the smartphone import regulations, are you seeing broader macroeconomic fatigue in high-ticket consumer discretionary purchases in Kazakhstan?
Bridging the Engagement Gap
Hepsiburada currently sees 6.7 purchases per consumer versus 24.8 in Kazakhstan. What specific product features or loyalty mechanics are you prioritizing in 2026 to bridge this 3.7x gap?