Kinross (KGC) Q3 2026 earnings review
Kinross raises its payout target, but output falls 16%
Kinross Gold's output fell and unit costs climbed, while a dip in gold prices from recent highs squeezed cash flow. Attributable gold production dropped 16% from a year ago because winter storms disrupted the La Coipa mine in Chile and two fatal accidents at Bald Mountain prompted company-wide safety stand-downs. Because the realized gold price slipped for a second straight quarter to $4,249 an ounce, revenue edged down 2% and attributable free cash flow fell 59%. Chief executive J. Paul Rollinson said the gold miner remains on track for its "updated guidance", though the release omitted the updated full-year numbers.
| Attributable gold production | 424.7 koz -16% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| All-in sustaining cost per ounce | $1,947 +20% from a year ago |
| Attributable free cash flow | $281.3M -59% from a year ago |
| 2026 cash return target | Raised to 50% from 40% of free cash flow |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because operational setbacks and cost inflation caught up with the company just as gold prices stopped rising. All-in sustaining costs jumped 20% from a year ago to $1,947 an ounce, pushing nine-month costs above the top end of the prior annual plan. On the positive side, Kinross raised its 2026 shareholder payout target from 40% to 50% of free cash flow, poured first gold at Redbird, and kept underground work at Round Mountain Phase X ahead of schedule.
The question now is whether third-quarter cost and volume pressures were a one-off weather blip or a reset of the company's baseline before new projects open in 2028. Bulls point to recovering mill grades at Round Mountain and normalized weather in Chile; bears point to a 30% jump in unit production costs and the unquantified "updated guidance". Fourth-quarter production and unit costs, alongside the full 2026 outlook numbers on the conference call, will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Kinross Raised Its Cash Return Target to 50%
Kinross, a Canadian gold miner operating in the Americas and West Africa, raised its 2026 shareholder payout target from 40% to 50% of free cash flow. The company bought back $230 million of shares in the third quarter and another $100 million in October. Including the $0.04 quarterly dividend, total cash returned to investors passed $950 million so far this year.
The balance sheet stayed strong even with those payouts. Net cash — cash minus long-term debt — stood at $1.9 billion, flat from the second quarter, and S&P Global Ratings upgraded the miner's credit rating to BBB in August. Because free cash flow dropped in the quarter, the higher 50% payout share keeps buybacks moving without drawing down cash.
What to watch: fourth-quarter attributable free cash flow, which is cash after mine spending belonging to Kinross shareholders. A rebound above $500 million would fund another large buyback without touching the cash pile.
Four Growth Projects Stay on Track for 2028
Kinross is building higher-grade deposits in the United States, Canada, and Chile to replace older mines as they wind down. The company poured first gold at Bald Mountain's Redbird 1 pit in early October. At Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, underground tunnel work is 8% ahead of schedule, with drilling "indicating higher ounces than expected driven by improved continuity of mineralization on the back of tighter drill spacing".
At Great Bear in Ontario, surface construction for the exploration decline is nearly finished, detailed engineering passed 55%, and drilling succeeded in "confirming the down-dip extensions of mineralization at Viggo for an additional 150 metres". Detailed engineering also began at Lobo-Marte in Chile. These milestones matter because the new mines must open on time starting in 2028 to keep company output near two million ounces.
What to watch: completion of the Ontario provincial technical review for Great Bear by the end of 2026. Keeping that schedule is necessary to win final construction permits in spring 2027.
🐻 Bear Case
Winter Weather and Lower Grades Cut Output 16%
"We remain on track for our updated guidance, supported by operational improvements at Round Mountain and La Coipa," chief executive J. Paul Rollinson said. Three months ago, finance chief Andrea Freeborough had told investors third-quarter output would match the ~492,000 ounces produced in each of the first two quarters. Instead, attributable gold equivalent production fell 14% from the second quarter and 16% from a year ago to 424,693 ounces.
- La Coipa (Chile): 29,203 ounces, down 50% from both last quarter and a year ago
- United States attributable output: 128,830 ounces, down 26% from a year ago
- Round Mountain (Nevada): 27,068 ounces, up 37% from last quarter's low but down 27% from a year ago
La Coipa suffered from "unprecedented winter weather that disrupted mining and milling activities during the quarter". Meanwhile, at Bald Mountain in Nevada, "two unrelated safety incidents occurred at Bald Mountain" in September that killed two contractor workers, and Kinross "held company-wide Safety Stand Downs to reinforce safety practices and controls". The press release mentions an updated full-year plan, but omits the updated numbers. By our math, hitting the prior two-million-ounce midpoint would require 590,418 ounces in the fourth quarter, a 22% jump from a year ago.
What to watch: the exact figure for the updated 2026 production plan in the full quarterly report or call. A cut below 1.95 million ounces would confirm the third-quarter shortfall cannot be made up this year.
Unit Costs Rose 20% Despite Cost Discipline Claims
"Our largest operations, Paracatu and Tasiast, continued to make significant contributions and we maintained disciplined cost management," Rollinson said. Yet unit costs across the company climbed to a new high. Attributable all-in sustaining cost (AISC) — the full operating and sustaining capital cost to produce an ounce — jumped 20% from a year ago to $1,947 per ounce sold.
- Attributable production cost of sales: $1,485 per ounce, up 30% from a year ago
- Production cost of sales on the income statement: 35.3% of revenue, up 2.1 percentage points from a year ago
- La Coipa production cost: $2,194 per ounce, up from $1,199 a year ago
- Paracatu and Tasiast production costs: up 29% and 21% per ounce from a year ago
Operating margin still rose 1.3 percentage points to 46.3% because depreciation, depletion and amortization (the non-cash write-off of mine assets) fell 3.6 percentage points of revenue on lower volume. Through nine months, AISC averaged $1,827 per ounce, above the top end of the prior $1,730 (+/-5%) annual plan. By our math, hitting that $1,730 midpoint would require fourth-quarter AISC to drop to $1,511.
What to watch: fourth-quarter attributable AISC per ounce. A reading above $1,800 would push full-year unit costs past the top of the company's original 2026 range.
Falling Gold Prices Ended the Revenue Rally
For more than a year, surging gold prices hid Kinross's shrinking production and rising mine costs. That cushion thinned in the third quarter. The average realized gold price fell 5% from the second quarter to $4,249 per ounce, marking a second straight quarterly drop from the first quarter's $4,873 peak. Compared with a year ago, the gold price was still up 23%, but attributable ounces sold dropped 19%.
Because volume fell almost as fast as the year-over-year price gain, quarterly revenue slipped 2% from a year ago to $1,775 million. Reported net earnings stayed flat at $583 million, while net earnings excluding one-offs rose 12% to $591 million only because last year's third quarter included a $53 million one-time gain on selling Asante Gold shares. Attributable free cash flow fell 59% from a year ago to $281 million as higher project spending, $151 million in cash taxes, and working capital outflows hit at once.
What to watch: average realized gold price in the fourth quarter against last year's $4,144 comparison. Without a gold price rebound, year-over-year revenue and profit growth will turn negative.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Three standing concerns from prior quarters received no new figures in the third-quarter earnings release.
- Grassy Narrows legal challenge: no update in the release on the Ontario Land Tribunal appeal against Great Bear's exploration permits; the full quarterly filing's legal footnotes will show its status.
- Great Bear capital budget inflation: detailed engineering passed 55%, but the updated construction cost estimate is not due until the first half of 2027.
- Proven and probable reserve replacement: reserves fell by 1 million ounces in 2025 to 20.9 million ounces; the next annual reserve calculation arrives with fourth-quarter results.
💲 Other KPIs
Spending on mine property, plant and equipment belonging to Kinross shareholders rose 42.9% from a year ago and 8.2% from the second quarter. Non-sustaining project spending more than doubled from a year ago to $320.7 million as construction ramped up at Redbird, Round Mountain Phase X, Curlew, and Great Bear, while sustaining capital fell 33.7% to $118.9 million.
Current stockpiles and ore on leach pads rose 8.5% from the end of 2025 and 7.6% from a year ago, even as third-quarter revenue dipped 1.5%. Inventory additions absorbed $55.0 million of operating cash flow during the quarter, mainly because Kinross placed more ore on heap leach pads at Round Mountain and Bald Mountain for future recovery.
The average share count fell 2.6% from a year ago and 0.6% from the second quarter. Kinross repurchased 8.6 million shares in the third quarter and 28.5 million shares over the first nine months of 2026, which lifted diluted earnings per share by 2.1% from a year ago despite flat reported net profit.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. Kinross lifted its full-year shareholder return target from 40% to 50% of attributable free cash flow. Through the first nine months of 2026, the miner returned 46% of its $1,845.6 million in attributable free cash flow via buybacks and dividends, and it spent another $100 million on buybacks in October.
❓ Key Questions
What are the exact numbers in the updated 2026 outlook?
The release headline and chief executive J. Paul Rollinson say Kinross is on track for "updated guidance", but the press release does not include a guidance table. Investors need the revised 2026 ranges for production and unit costs after the third-quarter volume drop.
Did the Bald Mountain safety stand-downs affect fourth-quarter mining?
Two contractor workers died in separate incidents at Bald Mountain in September, prompting company-wide safety stand-downs. Management has not quantified how many operating days were lost or whether tighter safety procedures will slow the Redbird ramp in the fourth quarter.
Can Round Mountain still hit 120,000 ounces this year?
Round Mountain produced 73,057 ounces in the first nine months of 2026. By our math, reaching the 120,000–130,000 ounce full-year target given on last quarter's call requires about 52,000 ounces in the fourth quarter, nearly double the third quarter's 27,068 ounces.
What is the status of the Grassy Narrows permit appeal?
Grassy Narrows First Nation sought leave to appeal Great Bear's water and environmental permits in May 2026, and the company previously noted a suspension would curtail underground exploration. The third-quarter release gives no update on the tribunal's ruling.