Joby Aviation (JOBY) Q3 2026 earnings review
Joby raises its sales plan, but air taxi testing slips
Joby Aviation, a developer of electric air taxis, grew revenue through its helicopter charter business and expanded into defense while its flagship passenger aircraft hit another regulatory delay. Third-quarter sales reached $55 million as the Blade charter service flew a record number of travellers, prompting founder and chief executive JoeBen Bevirt to lift the full-year sales plan by 15%. Even so, by our math the new outlook points to fourth-quarter revenue dropping to about $20 million after the summer travel peak, and quarterly cash burn reached $195 million.
| Revenue | $55.1M +42.6% from last quarter |
|---|---|
| Operating loss | $278.1M 53.1% wider than a year ago |
| Full-year revenue outlook | Raised 15% middle of the range: $137.5M |
| Second-half cash use outlook | Unchanged middle of the range: $400M |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because a major defense acquisition offsets another delay in commercial air taxi approval. Buying Resonant Sciences adds over $100 million in annual defense revenue and gives Joby a profitable military business while it waits for commercial sign-off. The bad news: official flight testing with federal regulators slipped from this year to the first half of 2027, pushing the first passenger air taxi flights out of 2026.
The question now is whether adding a defense business and a helicopter brokerage bridges the gap to commercial air taxis or just masks a slipping certification timeline at a higher cash burn. Either the Resonant deal and Toyota partnership fund the factory ramp efficiently, or widening operating losses force more stock sales before federal regulators approve the aircraft. The purchase price for Resonant in the upcoming filing and the start of regulatory flight testing in the first half of 2027 will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Blade Drives a 15% Revenue Outlook Raise
Blade, the helicopter and charter passenger service Joby acquired last year, generated nearly all of the third-quarter revenue of $55.1 million. That figure rose 42.6% from last quarter and beat what the prior full-year plan implied for the entire second half by our math. "Strong Blade performance enables us to again raise our full-year revenue guidance to a range of $135 million to $140 million," the company wrote.
- Blade passengers flown: over 44,000, a quarterly record and up 10% from a year ago by our math
- New York airport passengers: up 61% from a year ago, with first-time flyers more than doubling
- Gross profit: $16.1 million, or 29.2% of revenue, up from 26.8% last quarter by our math
The passenger growth proves travellers will pay for short airport flights in markets where Joby plans to launch its electric air taxi. However, Blade is a seasonal charter brokerage that peaks in the summer, and its results do not test the operating costs of an electric aircraft. By our math, the new full-year plan leaves $19.5 million of fourth-quarter revenue, down 64.6% from the third quarter.
What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue and gross margin when full-year results arrive in February. A drop below $17 million would show winter charter demand eats into the summer gains.
Resonant Acquisition Builds a Dedicated Defense Business
Joby signed an agreement to buy Resonant Sciences, an Ohio-based maker of military sensors, aircraft electronics and radar-evading parts. The deal is designed "to bring immediate scale to Joby’s defense business" when it closes in early 2027, the air taxi maker said. Founder and chief executive JoeBen Bevirt said Resonant will house all military and autonomous work, "allowing our commercial aviation organization to remain focused on bringing our electric air taxi into service."
In the same quarter, Joby's Superpilot software — its system for flying airplanes without human input — flew a Cessna Caravan 3,199 miles across the United States without pilot intervention. Following that flight, the US Air Force expanded its autonomy contracts with the California company from nearly $20 million to nearly $37 million, and lifted the contract ceiling for operational testing from $5 million to $50 million.
- Resonant trailing 12-month revenue through July 2026: over $100 million, growing about 40% from a year ago
- Resonant profitability: positive profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, excluding one-offs, in the high-teens percentage of revenue
- Resonant order momentum: first-half 2026 bookings more than tripled from a year ago, and backlog more than doubled
This matters because Resonant brings profitable, fast-growing military revenue before the commercial air taxi wins federal approval. Still, Joby did not disclose the purchase price or how much cash and stock it will pay. What to watch: the acquisition price and payment mix in the upcoming quarterly filing, because a large cash payout would shorten the company's cash runway.
Early Flights Begin as Factory Output Rises
In September and October, Joby completed its first flights in Texas and Florida under the federal eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), a White House-backed initiative for testing electric air taxis on real routes before full certification. Alongside partner Toyota, the developer "recently released work orders to begin the eighteenth production aircraft" and expanded its assembly queue from 12 to 17 aircraft. From the first to the third quarter, factory output rose 37% while the share of parts with quality defects fell 38%.
In the fifth and final stage of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) type certification — the safety approval required for commercial service — Joby's completed share rose 5 percentage points to 25%, and the regulator's share rose 4 points to 14%. What to watch: fourth-quarter FAA-side final-stage completion, because the regulator's review lags Joby's submissions and determines when formal flight testing can start.
🐻 Bear Case
FAA Flight Testing Slips to Next Year
For the past year, Joby targeted 2026 to begin Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing — where FAA pilots fly the aircraft for official certification credit — and to carry its first passengers in Dubai and the United States. Bevirt expressed confidence in the timeline, saying the company's progress "gives me every confidence that Joby will continue to lead the way."
However, the shareholder letter pushed that testing milestone into 2027, stating that ground tests are laying the foundation "with FAA pilot training and Joby flight testing of the relevant aircraft expected in the first half of next year". Furthermore, "The FAA has indicated that carrying passengers under the eIPP program will require companies to be in substantial TIA testing," the company wrote.
Because TIA flight testing will not start until the first half of 2027, Joby cannot carry passengers under the US pilot programme in 2026. In Dubai, where the air taxi maker previously aimed to fly passengers this year, Bevirt now plans only "to begin operational flight testing there later this year, with a pilot on board". The quiet delay shows regulatory sign-off still takes longer than management predicts.
What to watch: the exact start date of FAA pilot training and TIA flight testing in the first half of 2027. Any further slip beyond June 2027 would delay commercial passenger revenue into 2028.
Operating Losses and Dilution Keep Rising
While headline net loss narrowed from $401.2 million a year ago to $211.8 million, a non-cash accounting gain on warrants and earnout shares drove the improvement. Excluding those paper revaluations, the net loss widened 52.0% from a year ago to $261.6 million by our math, as the company spent more on engineering, factory staffing and Blade operations.
- Operating loss: $278.1 million, 53.1% wider than the $181.7 million loss a year ago by our math
- Research and development cost: $208.6 million, up 39.8% from a year ago (378.7% of revenue vs 660.8%)
- Selling, general and administrative cost: $85.6 million, up 90.1% from a year ago (155.3% of revenue vs 199.4%)
- Diluted share count: 978.5 million, up 15.9% from a year ago after $128 million of third-quarter stock sales
Joby used $195 million of cash in the quarter, keeping it on pace for its second-half burn plan of $385 million to $415 million. By our math, that puts full-year cash use excluding the Ohio factory purchase at about $765 million, up 41.9% from $539 million in 2025. Because certification is taking longer, shareholders face more quarters of heavy cash burn and stock dilution before air taxis generate profit.
What to watch: the full-year 2027 cash-use outlook when fourth-quarter results arrive. A plan above $800 million would show factory spending is still rising despite Toyota sharing production costs.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Five standing risks around aircraft deliveries, production targets, unit economics, joint-venture terms and patent litigation received no quantitative update in the third-quarter release.
- Completed aircraft deliveries: Joby reported 17 aircraft in production, up from 12, but gave no count of finished aircraft coming off the line against its second-half commitment of at least two; fourth-quarter results will settle whether it met the goal.
- 2027 production rate target: the goal of building four aircraft per month in 2027 went unmentioned for a third straight quarter; the 2027 outlook will test whether that pace remains realistic.
- Air taxi unit economics: management still has not disclosed per-aircraft build cost or expected ticket margins; only early commercial service data will test them.
- Toyota joint-venture terms and funding: a Toyota veteran now runs the Marina plant, but the transfer pricing for the 51% Toyota-owned manufacturing venture and the closing of Toyota's $250 million investment tranche remain open until final supply agreements are signed.
- Trade-commission import case: the shareholder letter did not mention the competitor patent complaint seeking to block component imports; the quarterly filing's legal footnote and the January 2027 hearing are the next readings.
💲 Other KPIs
Total liquidity edged down 2.9% from $2,263.8 million last quarter by our math, after rising in the first quarter on a $1.3 billion capital raise. The company used $195 million of cash for operations and equipment during the third quarter, but offset two-thirds of that outflow by selling $128 million of new common stock.
Factory and equipment assets rose 5.1% from last quarter and 64.8% from $146.6 million at the end of 2025 by our math. The air taxi developer spent $24.7 million on capital equipment in the third quarter — equal to 44.9% of revenue by our math — as it outfits plants in California and Ohio.
Unpaid bills and short-term obligations more than doubled, rising 126.6% from $48.0 million at the end of 2025 by our math. Holding onto that cash reduced nine-month operating cash outflow by $68.3 million, which helped keep reported cash burn inside the company's second-half target.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The middle of the full-year plan moved up $17.5 million, or 14.6% by our math, to $137.5 million. Because nine-month revenue already reached $118.0 million, by our math the outlook leaves $19.5 million for the fourth quarter — down 64.6% from the third quarter as Blade's summer charter season ends and down 36.7% from a year ago when Joby recorded one-time demonstration revenue. Second straight raise (+0M, +$10M, +$17.5M).
Unchanged. The company still plans to spend about $400 million of cash in the second half of the year, up from $365 million in the first half excluding the Ohio building purchase. After spending $195 million in the third quarter, by our math the plan leaves $205 million of cash use for the fourth quarter.
❓ Key Questions
What are the price and payment terms for Resonant Sciences?
Resonant adds over $100 million of profitable defense revenue, but Joby did not disclose the purchase price or the split between cash and stock. That mix determines whether the deal drains cash needed for aircraft certification or dilutes shareholders further.
Why did FAA pilot flight testing slip into 2027?
Management previously expected FAA pilots to begin for-credit flight testing in 2026, yet the letter now puts pilot training and testing in the first half of 2027. Investors need to know which ground tests or paperwork caused the delay.
How many completed aircraft left the factory line this quarter?
Joby expanded its assembly queue from 12 to 17 aircraft and started an eighteenth, but did not say if any completed aircraft rolled off the line against its second-half goal of at least two.
When will Toyota's $250 million investment and supply deal close?
A Toyota veteran now manages the Marina factory, yet the letter gave no update on finalising the joint-venture supply agreements or closing Toyota's remaining $250 million cash investment expected around year-end.