IQM Quantum Computers (IQMX) Q3 2026 earnings review
IQM's order backlog jumps, but its cash cushion shrinks fast
IQM Quantum Computers, the Finnish maker of superconducting quantum machines, grew sales while burning a large share of its listing cash. Third-quarter revenue rose 51% to EUR 9 million as custom system work progressed, and order backlog reached EUR 102 million after a landmark supercomputing contract in Finland. Chief executive Jan Goetz kept the full-year sales outlook unchanged, which by our math leaves about EUR 27 million to book in the fourth quarter.
| Revenue | EUR 8.9M +51% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Order backlog | EUR 102.5M +34% from a year ago |
| Cash and equivalents | EUR 260.4M EUR 309.4M after July listing |
| Full-year revenue outlook | Unchanged EUR 42–47M (implies ~EUR 27M in Q4) |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because shipping the first two 150-qubit machines to customer sites balanced out a faster cash burn and a steep fourth-quarter sales hurdle. Having those large systems on site lowers factory risk, yet the company explicitly warned that revenue depends on customer cooling setup and procurement sign-off. Meanwhile, cash dropped by EUR 49 million since early July as research and public-company overhead widened the operating loss.
The question now is whether customers will formally accept the new 150-qubit machines before December 31 and how fast IQM will spend its remaining cash. Supporters see a growing backlog of sovereign supercomputing deals that will convert on schedule, while skeptics see lumpy government tenders, a EUR 27 million single-quarter bottleneck, and another capital raise ahead. Fourth-quarter revenue and operating cash flow will settle the debate.
🐂 Bull Case
First 150-Qubit Systems Shipped to Customer Sites
IQM builds full-stack superconducting quantum computers that customers install on their own premises. Moving from smaller research machines to larger 150-qubit systems is the main driver of both its product roadmap and this year's sales plan. Chief executive Jan Goetz said "the first two 150-qubit customer systems have left our factory and are being installed at the customer sites, with final delivery scheduled by year-end".
Factory activity stepped up alongside those shipments. The Finnish hardware maker had 17 quantum computers in production at the end of September, up from 8 three months earlier, while total systems sold since founding rose from 26 to 31. On the research side, engineers linked all 54 qubits on the IQM Emerald processor and tested the Star chip layout needed for 2027 error-correction prototypes.
Shipping the two 150-qubit machines out of the factory lowers the manufacturing risk for the fourth quarter. What to watch: customer sign-off on the first 150-qubit installation in the fourth-quarter report. Final sign-off unlocks the largest piece of 2026 revenue and proves the company can install large systems on schedule.
Backlog Reaches EUR 102M and Lifts Gross Margin
Order backlog — confirmed customer contracts not yet booked as sales — reached EUR 102.5 million at the end of September, up 34% from a year ago and 48% from June. The jump came after Finland's CSC signed a EUR 33 million deal for IQM Halocene, a 150-qubit computer built to correct its own calculation errors, alongside smaller IQM Spark system sales in Brazil, Spain, and Japan.
Larger custom projects, where IQM books revenue in stages as it hits engineering milestones, drove the third quarter's 51% sales growth to EUR 8.9 million. Because cost of revenue — direct materials, factory labor, and system installation — rose only 33% to EUR 4.7 million, gross margin expanded by 7.2 percentage points from a year ago to 47.0%. Management expects EUR 59.5 million of the current backlog to turn into revenue over the next 12 months.
What to watch: the share of the EUR 59.5 million 12-month backlog that converts in the fourth quarter versus slipping into 2027. A high conversion rate would show that milestone-based supercomputing contracts can smooth out the company's quarterly sales.
🐻 Bear Case
Full-Year Sales Plan Needs EUR 27M in Q4
IQM kept its full-year revenue outlook of EUR 42 million to EUR 47 million, but nine-month sales reached only EUR 17.7 million. By our math, hitting the middle of the full-year range requires EUR 26.8 million of fourth-quarter revenue, which is three times what the company booked in the third quarter and more than the last four quarters combined.
For standard machines, IQM cannot record a sale when a computer leaves the factory or when technicians finish installing it; the customer must formally accept the working system. In the outlook section, the company warned that "Acceptance depends partly on factors on the customer side, such as site readiness, cooling and power infrastructure, and public-sector procurement sign-off".
Adding that explicit warning in November underscores how fragile the fourth-quarter target is. Because the two 150-qubit machines are still being installed, any delay in a customer's cooling setup or government paperwork past December 31 will push millions of euros of revenue into 2027. What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue against the EUR 24.3 million needed to reach the bottom of the full-year range. A shortfall would confirm that customer site delays kept large system sales out of 2026.
Cash Burn Accelerates and Runway Ends in 2028
Closing the merger with Real Asset Acquisition Corp. (RAAQ, a special-purpose acquisition company) and a private share placement lifted cash to EUR 309.4 million on July 2. By September 30, cash and cash equivalents had dropped by EUR 49.0 million to EUR 260.4 million, which Goetz said "provides a runway into the second quarter of 2028".
- Third-quarter operating cash outflow: EUR 48.5 million by our math, up from a EUR 25.0 million quarterly average in the first half
- Operating loss excluding one-offs: EUR 30.7 million in Q3 by our math (stripping out EUR 127.1 million listing charge and EUR 13.5 million deal fees), widened from EUR 21.0 million in Q2
- Research and development expenses: EUR 20.4 million, up 48% from a year ago as headcount reached 490
- General and administrative expenses excluding deal fees: EUR 13.5 million by our math, nearly five times last year's EUR 2.7 million on public-company audit and staff costs
Spending EUR 260.4 million over six quarters implies burning more than EUR 40 million a quarter, so the company will likely need to raise fresh equity or debt in 2027. What to watch: fourth-quarter operating cash flow once the EUR 23.4 million of nine-month listing fees stop repeating. If quarterly cash burn stays above EUR 35 million without deal fees, the cash cushion will shrink faster than planned.
Orders Rely on One Deal while Cloud Shrinks
Goetz highlighted "record new orders booked" of EUR 42.2 million in the third quarter, and the financial report states that "Until such time as we can generate significant revenue from cloud-based quantum computer offering and our professional services, we expect to finance our cash needs through public or private equity or debt financings". Both parts of that commercial story — broad order momentum and a scaling cloud service — showed narrow foundations in the numbers.
Strip out the single EUR 33.0 million LUMI contract, which was already announced in August, and all other hardware, service, and cloud orders in the third quarter totaled EUR 9.2 million by our math. That leaves nine-month order intake at EUR 52.9 million, down 9% from EUR 58.2 million in the first nine months of 2025. Meanwhile, revenue from IQM Resonance, its cloud platform for remote quantum access, fell 7% from a year ago to EUR 84 thousand — less than 1% of quarterly sales — even after IQM paid EUR 1.9 million for Quantistry's simulation software.
Because cloud revenue is tiny and shrinking, hardware tenders carry the entire business, leaving bookings lumpy from quarter to quarter. What to watch: fourth-quarter order intake against the EUR 12.1 million to EUR 22.1 million needed to meet the full-year order plan. Missing that range would show that public supercomputing tenders remain too irregular to predict.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Three standing risks around customer mix, rival technologies, and future hardware milestones saw no new test in the third-quarter report.
- Reliance on government and academic buyers: named third-quarter orders (CSC in Finland, the Community of Madrid, and Brazil's Eldorado Research Institute) were all public or research bodies, and IQM did not disclose commercial enterprise share of backlog.
- Competition from other quantum methods and tech giants: whether buyers favor neutral-atom or trapped-ion machines over superconducting chips will be tested by IQM's win rate in Phase 1 of Europe's EuroHPC Quantum Grand Challenge.
- Error-correction technical execution: entangling 54 qubits on the Emerald chip is an early step, but the real test is delivering the first error-correction demonstrator in 2027.
👓 Other Themes
Listing Charges Drove the EUR 153M Net Loss
IQM reported a third-quarter net loss of EUR 152.6 million, up from EUR 12.6 million a year ago, primarily because of accounting rules for its July merger with RAAQ. The company recorded a one-time, non-cash share listing expense of EUR 127.1 million — the gap between the market value of shares given to RAAQ investors and RAAQ's net cash — plus EUR 13.5 million in legal and advisory fees, partly offset by a EUR 21.9 million paper gain as warrant liabilities fell in value.
💲 Other KPIs
Inventories — parts and quantum computers currently being built — rose 34.7% from June and 154.2% from EUR 13.5 million at the end of 2025. The build-up tied up EUR 20.8 million of operating cash over the first nine months as the factory worked on 17 systems in production ahead of year-end deliveries.
Contract liabilities — upfront cash payments from customers for work not yet completed — dropped 66.1% from EUR 13.8 million in June and 36.8% from EUR 7.4 million at the end of 2025. The decline reflects IQM working through customer prepayments on customized projects recognized over time during the third quarter.
The average share count used to calculate loss per share jumped from 30.9 million in the second quarter to 189.3 million in the third. Converting preferred stock into ordinary shares on June 30, issuing 28.9 million treasury shares to RAAQ and private placement investors on July 1, and exercising lender warrants drove the expansion.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. Management kept its full-year sales target at EUR 42 million to EUR 47 million. By our math, subtracting EUR 17.7 million of nine-month sales leaves EUR 24.3 million to EUR 29.3 million (EUR 26.8 million at the middle of the range) for the fourth quarter, requiring Q4 revenue to triple from Q3's EUR 8.9 million as the first 150-qubit systems seek customer sign-off.
Unchanged. The company maintained its full-year target for newly signed customer contracts at EUR 65 million to EUR 75 million. With EUR 52.9 million booked in the first nine months after the LUMI deal, IQM needs EUR 12.1 million to EUR 22.1 million of fourth-quarter orders (EUR 17.1 million at the middle of the range) to achieve the plan.
❓ Key Questions
Have customers signed off on the first 150-qubit systems?
Two 150-qubit machines are being installed at customer sites, and the EUR 42–47 million revenue plan requires about EUR 27 million in Q4. Investors need to know if customer cooling and power facilities are ready for sign-off before December 31.
Where did the July order intake gap go?
Last quarter, management cited EUR 50 million in year-to-date order intake after the LUMI deal, but total nine-month order intake through September printed at EUR 52.9 million. Did a previously expected July contract slip into the fourth quarter?
What is the quarterly cash burn rate after listing costs?
Cash fell by EUR 49.0 million between July 2 and September 30, and operating loss excluding listing and deal fees widened to EUR 30.7 million. What quarterly cash outflow does management budget to make EUR 260.4 million last into Q2 2028?
How much of the EUR 102.5M backlog is commercial enterprise?
Every named third-quarter system buyer — CSC, Eldorado Research Institute, and the Community of Madrid — is a government or research body, while TOYO bought a machine for its R&D center. What share of backlog comes from private commercial enterprises?