Robinhood (HOOD) Q4 2025 earnings review
Record Year Caps With Growth Deceleration as Crypto Fades and Prediction Markets Surge
Robinhood delivered a record 2025: revenue up 52% to $4.5B, Adjusted EBITDA up 76% to $2.5B, and diluted EPS of $2.05. Q4 was a record quarter at $1.28B in revenue (+27% YoY), but growth decelerated sharply from Q3's +100% due to tough comps and a 38% decline in crypto revenue. The standout: 'other transaction revenue' (prediction markets, futures) exploded 374% YoY to $147M, nearly dollar-for-dollar replacing lost crypto revenue. Adjusted EBITDA margin held at 59%. No revenue guidance was provided; only expense outlook of $2.6B-$2.73B adjusted OpEx and SBC for 2026 (+18% YoY). Buybacks of $653M in FY2025 at an average price of $54.30.
🐂 Bull Case
Fastest-growing business in Robinhood's history, reaching a $300M+ run rate in its first year. Event contracts traded surged to 8.5B in Q4, up from 2.3B in Q3. Customers have already traded 4B+ contracts in early 2026. The Rothera JV with Susquehanna gives Robinhood vertical control over the exchange, improving both product quality and unit economics.
Now 11 businesses each generating $100M+ in annualized revenue, up from 5 a few years ago. Non-transaction revenue (net interest + other) grew to 40% of total in Q4, up from 34% a year ago. Net interest revenue grew 37% for FY2025 to $1.5B, driven by margin book doubling to $16.8B. This reduces dependence on volatile trading volumes.
4.2M Gold subscribers (+58% YoY), 15%+ adoption rate. Gold subscribers have 5x more assets and are 4x more likely to adopt additional products. The Gold Card reached 600K customers with $10B+ annualized spend, targeting 1M+ by year-end 2026. Robinhood Banking launched to 25K+ early customers with 50%+ direct deposit enrollment, signaling sticky engagement.
🐻 Bear Case
Cryptocurrency revenue fell 38% YoY to $221M in Q4. Robinhood app crypto volumes dropped 52% YoY to $34B. January 2026 continued the trend with app volumes down 57% YoY. Even total crypto volumes (including Bitstamp) barely grew QoQ. Crypto was 18% of 2025 revenue—still large enough that weakness drags on growth.
Revenue YoY growth decelerated from 100% in Q3 to 27% in Q4. Sequentially, revenue barely grew—up just 1% QoQ from $1.27B to $1.28B. With Q1 2025 comparables already at $927M, maintaining 20%+ growth requires continued new product contribution, and management offered zero revenue guidance.
GAAP operating expenses grew 38% YoY in Q4 vs 27% revenue growth—the first quarter where expense growth exceeded revenue growth. G&A surged to $178M (partly due to Q4 2024 having a $55M regulatory benefit). Provision for credit losses grew 89% YoY. The 2026 expense plan calls for 18% growth, relying on revenue growing faster to maintain leverage.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. Record profitability, rapid diversification, and a deep product pipeline outweigh the crypto weakness and growth deceleration. The business is structurally stronger—11 revenue lines above $100M, EBITDA margins at 56%, and multiple scaling products (prediction markets, banking, Gold Card) with long runways. The absence of revenue guidance is the primary gap for investors trying to underwrite 2026.
Key Themes
Prediction Markets: Fastest Business in Company History
'Other transaction revenue'—which captures prediction markets, futures, and index options—exploded to $147M in Q4, up from $31M a year ago (+374% YoY). This single line item grew by $116M YoY, almost entirely offsetting the $137M YoY decline in crypto revenue. Event contracts traded surged from 2.3B in Q3 to 8.5B in Q4, with 12B for the full year. Vlad described a 'prediction markets super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time.' The Rothera JV (45% Robinhood / 45% Susquehanna / 10% MIAX), which closed in January 2026, gives Robinhood full control over the product stack and monetization—currently customers pay $0.02 per contract ($0.01 to Robinhood as FCM, $0.01 to exchange). Importantly, post-NFL-season volume held up: NBA contracts surpassed NFL, and non-sports events (government shutdown) drove meaningful volume.
Crypto Revenue Decline Deepening on Robinhood App
Crypto revenue fell 38% YoY to $221M in Q4, driven by Robinhood app volumes declining 52% YoY to $34B. This trend worsened in January 2026: app crypto volumes fell 57% YoY to $8.7B. Bitstamp's institutional volumes partially offset the decline ($48B in Q4, roughly doubling since acquisition close), but Bitstamp operates at lower take rates. Q4's blended crypto take rate compressed—Shiv noted January was approximately 5 basis points below Q4's average rebate rate due to more active (and therefore lower-fee-tier) traders dominating the mix. The net result: crypto was 17% of Q4 revenue, down from 35% in Q4 2024. Management frames crypto as evolving from an 'asset class' into 'foundational technology' via tokenization, but near-term revenue headwinds are real.
Gold Subscriber Flywheel Drives Multi-Product Adoption
Gold subscribers reached 4.2M (+58% YoY), with adoption exceeding 15% of funded customers. Gold subscribers have 5x more assets and are 4x more likely to adopt additional products than non-Gold users. The Gold Card expanded to 600K customers (5x growth in 2025) with $10B+ in annualized spend. Management targets more than doubling to 'well over 1 million' cardholders by year-end 2026. The key signal: for new customers joining in recent quarters, Gold attach rate exceeds 30%, and nearly 40% for the newest cohorts. Other revenue (primarily Gold subscriptions) reached $96M in Q4 (+109% YoY), with Gold subscription revenue specifically at $50M (+56% YoY). The Gold ecosystem now extends to Banking, the credit card, and acts as a gateway for retirement and advisory product adoption.
Net Interest Revenue Engine Growing, But Rate Cuts Biting
Net interest revenue reached $1.51B for FY2025 (+37% YoY), becoming 34% of total revenue. The margin book more than doubled to $16.8B (+113% YoY), and January 2026 hit $18.4B (+121% YoY). Cash sweep grew to $32.8B (+26% YoY). However, Q4 NII declined 10% sequentially from $456M to $411M as lower short-term interest rates began offsetting asset growth. From Q1 2025 call guidance, each 25bp rate cut creates an approximately $50M standalone headwind. Securities lending also hit records, contributing meaningfully. The critical question: can the rapid growth in interest-earning assets (margin book, credit card receivables, securities lending) continue outpacing rate headwinds? The margin book's trajectory suggests yes for now, but further rate cuts would pressure the offset.
Revenue Growth Deceleration and QoQ Flattening
Revenue YoY growth decelerated sharply: 115% in Q4 2024, 50% in Q1, 45% in Q2, 100% in Q3, and 27% in Q4 2025. More notably, Q4 revenue of $1,283M was essentially flat versus Q3's $1,274M (+1% QoQ). Transaction revenue grew only $46M QoQ while net interest dropped $45M QoQ. The Q3 quarter benefited from a strong crypto surge ($268M in crypto revenue vs $160M in Q2), which reversed in Q4. Management offered no revenue guidance for 2026—only expense guidance—leaving investors to infer growth from Shiv's statement that 'we expect revenue to grow faster than expenses' (expenses guided at +18%). January preliminary data shows equity volumes +57% YoY and options +20% YoY, suggesting trading engagement remains solid, but crypto continues to weigh.
Robinhood Banking: Early Results Signal Product-Market Fit
Robinhood Banking, rolled out over the past few months, has 25K+ funded customers with $400M+ in balances. The standout metric: over 50% of funded banking customers enrolled in direct deposit—a powerful signal of primary bank adoption. The product offers 3.5% APY on both checking and savings for customers with $100K+ across all Robinhood products, eliminating the need to shuffle money between accounts. Features include cash delivery, virtual and single-use cards, and family capabilities. This also serves the broader super-app vision: with banking as a foundation, Robinhood captures the full financial relationship—paycheck, spending, saving, and investing—in one ecosystem. Vlad explicitly flagged the 50%+ direct deposit rate as evidence of product-market fit.
Credit Losses Accelerating Alongside Gold Card Expansion
Provision for credit losses grew 89% YoY in Q4 to $36M and 50% for FY2025 to $114M. With the Gold Card targeting 1M+ holders by year-end 2026 (up from 600K) and credit card receivables growing rapidly ($5.2B purchased in 2025 vs $748M in 2024), credit risk exposure is expanding fast. Notably, starting Q1 2025, provision for credit losses was excluded from adjusted operating expenses, making the non-GAAP metrics look cleaner while the actual loss profile deteriorates. Management has emphasized that delinquency rates and charge-offs remain 'very low,' but the trajectory warrants monitoring as the card portfolio seasons and macroeconomic conditions could shift.
AI Integration Yielding Nine-Figure Savings
Vlad disclosed that AI has generated 'estimated nine figures in savings' in 2025 alone, calling it 'a big reason why we've been able to drive such high product velocity while keeping costs down.' Two primary applications: (1) AI customer support now resolves over 75% of cases, including complex ones that previously required licensed brokerage professionals, and (2) AI-assisted software engineering across the full development pipeline from code writing to testing and deployment. Cortex Assistant is rolling out to customers in 'coming weeks,' positioned as an AI financial advisor in the app. For Legend (desktop platform), Cortex aims to be 'to active traders what Cursor is to software engineers.' Every team at Robinhood is now mandated to integrate AI into their operations.
Other KPIs
Stable. ARPU grew 16% YoY from $164, but the growth rate has decelerated from 102% in Q4 2024, 39% in Q1, 34% in Q2, and 82% in Q3 (when crypto volumes surged). The QoQ change was flat—Q3 ARPU was also $191. With funded customers growing just 7% YoY (from 25.2M to 27.0M, the slowest growth rate in recent quarters), revenue growth is increasingly dependent on extracting more revenue per user rather than adding new ones. The Gold flywheel (higher adoption → higher engagement → higher spend) is the key mechanism for sustaining ARPU growth.
Reversing. A dramatic improvement from FY2024's -$157M. The swing was driven by higher net income ($1.88B vs $1.41B) and favorable movements in securities lending and payables to users. However, Q4 alone was -$937M, reflecting seasonal growth in receivables from users (margin loans up $3.3B in Q4 alone). Capital expenditures remain minimal at $54M (PP&E + capitalized software), leaving ample room for buybacks and growth investment. Cash and equivalents ended at $4.26B, roughly flat YoY.
Since launching buybacks in Q3 2024, Robinhood has repurchased $910M worth of shares (~22M shares at an average price of $40.64). However, diluted weighted-average shares still increased from 906M to 919M in FY2025—SBC-driven dilution outpaces buybacks. Q4 repurchases of $100M at $119.86 average price bought only 0.8M shares—far less accretive per dollar than earlier buybacks at $34-$55. Shiv emphasized that 'the denominator matters' and noted periods of market volatility are 'a really great time to lean into' the buyback program. Over $1B remains authorized.
Guidance
Decelerating expense growth. The midpoint of $2.66B represents 18% YoY growth vs 22% comparable growth in 2025. Breakdown: ~5 percentage points into existing businesses (net of efficiencies), ~3 percentage points from full-year costs of Bitstamp and TradePMR acquisitions, and ~10 percentage points (more than half) into new and scaling businesses—including the Gold Card, Banking, Strategies, Prediction Markets, Cortex, Social, Ventures, the Robinhood Chain, and international expansion. Excludes provision for credit losses, Rothera JV costs, pending acquisition costs, and potential significant regulatory matters. Management commits to revenue growing faster than expenses, implying >18% revenue growth in 2026 from the $4.47B base.
Key Questions
Revenue Guidance Absence
You guide only on expenses but commit to 'revenue growing faster than expenses.' With 18% expense growth at the midpoint, what level of revenue growth is embedded in your internal plan? What gives you confidence in sustaining 20%+ growth given the crypto headwinds and QoQ revenue flattening?
Net Interest Revenue Sensitivity
NII declined 10% QoQ in Q4 despite the margin book growing 21% QoQ. The Q1 2025 disclosed sensitivity was $50M headwind per 25bp cut. Has that sensitivity increased given the margin book more than doubling? What is the updated NII impact per 25bp rate change?
Share Dilution Trajectory
Despite $653M in buybacks in FY2025, diluted shares still grew from 906M to 919M. Q4 buybacks at $119.86 average price are 3x the cost of earlier repurchases. At what share price does the buyback program become insufficient to offset SBC dilution, and what is the expected SBC trajectory for 2026?
Credit Card Loss Profile at Scale
Provision for credit losses grew 89% YoY in Q4 as the Gold Card scales toward 1M+ holders. What are the current 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day delinquency rates? What is the expected steady-state loss rate as the portfolio seasons, and at what point would you consider slowing the card rollout?