Hepsiburada (HEPS) Q3 2026 earnings review
Hepsiburada's product margins rise, but real sales and profits fall
Hepsiburada, the Turkish e-commerce platform, saw its sales fall behind inflation in the third quarter while higher delivery and marketing costs pushed operating cash profits below zero. After adjusting for Türkiye's 30% annual inflation, gross merchandise value dropped 7% from a year ago and revenue fell 6% as shoppers spent less per order. Chief executive Ender Özgün spent more to subsidize merchant shipping and advertising, which drove EBITDA down to negative TRY 134 million.
| Gross merchandise value (inflation-adjusted) | TRY 62.0B -6.6% from a year ago (+22.3% unadjusted) |
|---|---|
| Revenue (inflation-adjusted) | TRY 24.3B -6.1% from a year ago |
| EBITDA (operating cash profit) | -TRY 134M +TRY 225M a year ago (-0.2% of GMV) |
| Free cash flow | TRY 889M -73.5% from a year ago |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because order growth nearly stopped after two strong quarters, turning real sales negative just as operating expenses climbed. Order volume barely grew at 1% from a year ago, down from 13% growth in the second quarter, and free cash flow fell 74%. On the positive side, outside marketplace sellers and the Hepsijet delivery unit lifted product margins, and the new Hepsitaksit loan product financed 8% of October smartphone sales.
The question now is whether the third-quarter drop was a temporary summer lull before November's discount events or a lasting pullback by Turkish shoppers. If the subsidies work, fourth-quarter order growth will rebound and restore positive EBITDA; if shoppers stay cautious, elevated inventory and shipping costs will deepen losses. Fourth-quarter holiday results will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Marketplace Shift and Delivery Services Lifted Product Margins
Hepsiburada runs both a direct retail store and a third-party marketplace where outside merchants sell goods and pay commissions. In the third quarter, outside sellers accounted for 69.8% of gross merchandise value (GMV), the total value of goods sold on the platform, up 1.2 percentage points from a year ago.
Because marketplace commissions carry no inventory cost, that shift helped lift gross contribution — revenue minus the cost of inventory sold. Delivery revenue also grew 6.4%, "mainly due to an increase in delivery service revenue from the off-platform customers and delivered orders of Hepsijet", its logistics arm. By our math, inventory costs fell 2.1 percentage points as a share of revenue, pushing the gross contribution margin up 0.9 percentage points to 15.4% of GMV.
What to watch: the marketplace share of GMV and external delivery revenue in the fourth-quarter holiday peak. Further gains in third-party share would show the platform can protect product margins even when retail demand is weak.
New Installment Loans Gained Traction in Smartphones
High interest rates in Türkiye make big-ticket electronics hard for shoppers to finance. To address this, the company introduced Hepsitaksit, an in-house installment loan product, in June 2026. Chief executive Ender Özgün said "our newly launched Hepsitaksit loan product supported purchases representing 8.4% of smartphone GMV in October", up from 0.4% of total platform GMV in its first month.
At the same time, impairment losses for bad customer debts dropped 96.9% from a year ago to TRY 5.3 million. However, the new product has not yet offset broader lending headwinds. Other revenue fell 11.9%, "mainly due to the decreases in consumer finance revenue, Hepsipay income and fulfilment revenue", and interest income on credit sales dropped over the first nine months.
What to watch: Hepsitaksit's share of total platform GMV and fourth-quarter consumer finance revenue. A rebound in finance income without a rise in bad-debt provisions would show the new loan product can grow safely.
🐻 Bear Case
Real Merchandise Sales Shrank as Basket Sizes Fell
In his commentary, Özgün highlighted nine-month results and said an 11.4% rise in twelve-month order frequency to 7.5 orders per buyer was "reflecting increasing customer engagement on our platform". Because Türkiye has high inflation, Hepsiburada restates all figures into current purchasing power so periods can be compared fairly.
The third-quarter numbers alone tell a much weaker story than the nine-month total. Order growth slowed from 22.3% in the first quarter and 13.4% in the second quarter to 0.7% in the third, reaching 20.3 million orders. Furthermore, shoppers spent 7.3% less per order after inflation, pulling total GMV down 6.6% to TRY 62.0 billion and revenue down 6.1% to TRY 24.3 billion.
- Direct retail (1P) revenue: TRY 15.6 billion, down 9.8% from a year ago
- Marketplace (3P) GMV: TRY 43.3 billion, down 4.9% from a year ago
- Average order value: down 7.3% after inflation
What to watch: fourth-quarter order growth and average order value during the November promotional season. A second consecutive drop in inflation-adjusted GMV would confirm that Turkish consumers are cutting back on online spending.
Delivery and Ad Spending Pushed Operating Cash Profits Below Zero
Hepsiburada tracks earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and inflation monetary gains (EBITDA) as its primary measure of operating performance. In the third quarter, EBITDA turned negative at minus TRY 134.1 million, or minus 0.2% of GMV, down from positive TRY 225.4 million (0.3% of GMV) a year ago.
Özgün attributed the drop to "investments in strategic initiatives, including efforts to speed up, and reduce the cost of delivery for merchants, and increased marketing activities". Even as revenue fell 6.1%, shipping and packaging expenses rose 6.3% and advertising rose 3.2%. By our math, shipping costs climbed 1.5 percentage points to 12.9% of revenue, advertising rose 1.0 percentage point to 11.0%, and staff payroll rose 0.8 percentage points to 12.1%, wiping out the gain in product margins.
What to watch: shipping and advertising expenses as a share of GMV in the fourth quarter. If higher promotional and delivery spending does not bring back positive order growth, operating losses will widen further.
Free Cash Flow Dropped 74% as Supplier Payables Reversed
As a retailer and marketplace, Hepsiburada collects cash from shoppers quickly and pays suppliers and merchants later, running a negative net working capital balance of minus TRY 16.3 billion. When sales grow, unpaid supplier bills rise and generate cash; when sales shrink in real terms, that cash source dries up.
In the third quarter, operating cash flow fell 59.4% from a year ago to TRY 1.64 billion, and free cash flow — operating cash minus capital spending — fell 73.5% to TRY 888.9 million. Over the first nine months, trade payables and merchant balances were a TRY 774.7 million cash outflow, compared with a TRY 6.02 billion cash inflow in the same period of 2025, while interest received on credit sales fell by TRY 1.08 billion.
What to watch: fourth-quarter operating cash flow and trade payables. The fourth quarter is historically the company's biggest cash generator, so a weak holiday shopping season would tighten working capital.
👓 Other Themes
Turkish Inflation Eased Below 30%, Slowing Unadjusted Growth
Annual Turkish consumer inflation published by TurkStat slowed to 29.7% in September 2026, down from 32.1% in June 2026 and 33.3% a year earlier, with monthly price increases holding steady at 1.8% in July, August and September. Without adjusting for inflation, third-quarter GMV rose 22.3% to TRY 60.9 billion and unadjusted revenue grew 22.8% to TRY 23.8 billion, trailing the 29.7% price index rise.
💲 Other KPIs
Inventories rose 14.9% in real terms from December 2025 to TRY 12.47 billion, by our math, even as direct retail sales shrank 9.8% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, cash, restricted cash and financial investments stood at TRY 17.73 billion, bolstered by a TRY 9.49 billion share issuance during the first nine months of 2026.
Active customers — buyers who placed at least one physical order in the past twelve months — grew 1.9% from a year ago to 11.5 million, holding flat from June 2026. Active merchants who sold at least one item over the past year slipped 1.3% from a year ago to 100.0 thousand.
❓ Key Questions
Why did order growth stall to 0.7% in Q3?
Order growth slowed from 22.3% in Q1 and 13.4% in Q2 to 0.7% in Q3 despite higher marketing and shipping subsidies. Management did not say whether weaker consumer demand or competitor discounting caused the stall.
Why did inventories rise 15% while retail sales fell?
Inflation-adjusted inventories grew 14.9% from year-end to TRY 12.47 billion while direct retail sales dropped 9.8%. Did the platform build stock early for November promotions, or is unsold merchandise piling up?
How are the TRY 9.5 billion share proceeds allocated?
Hepsiburada raised TRY 9.49 billion from issuing shares in the first nine months of 2026, increasing its implied share count by about 20% by our math. Management has not detailed how much of this cash will fund delivery subsidies versus consumer lending.
When will management provide a formal financial outlook?
The company did not issue revenue, GMV or EBITDA targets for the fourth quarter or full year 2026. Without a formal plan, investors cannot tell when management expects shipping and marketing subsidies to pay off.