Equinor (EQNR) Q3 2026 earnings review
Equinor's profit doubles on gas prices, and production plans rise
Equinor's profit nearly doubled on surging European gas and oil prices while new international fields lifted output. Operating profit, excluding one-offs, reached $12.4 billion as European gas prices jumped 75% to $20 per mmbtu. Chief executive Anders Opedal raised the full-year production growth plan to 4%, which by our math implies about 2% growth in the fourth quarter.
| Operating profit, excluding one-offs | $12.35B +99% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $1.20 $0.37 a year ago |
| Cash from operations after tax | $8.14B +53% from a year ago |
| Full-year production outlook | Raised to ~4% prior plan: ~3% growth |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because international fields and refining beat expectations while heavy cash flow cut the net debt ratio to 3.8%. Equinor also reduced two project risks by bringing Shell into Canada's Bay du Nord and seeing the US suspension order on Empire Wind expire. One caution: Norwegian tax payments jumped 74% and unplanned outages at Johan Castberg and Troll kept domestic output flat.
The question now is how much cash Equinor will return in 2027 once this year's higher Norwegian tax bills come due. Bullish observers point to the nearly debt-free balance sheet, while cautious ones note that three tax instalments hit in the fourth quarter and recent profit gains rest on conflict-driven gas prices. Management's 2027 capital distribution plan in February will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
High Oil and Gas Prices Doubled Operating Profit
Equinor produces oil and gas in Norway and abroad, so global energy prices drive its earnings. Critics warn that a return to normal prices would erase recent gains. This quarter, supply disruptions "following the conflict in the Middle East" lifted European gas and oil prices instead.
- European piped gas price: $20.0 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), a measure of heat content, up 75% from a year ago
- Realised liquids price: $92.3 per barrel, up 42% from a year ago
- Operating profit, excluding one-offs: $12.35 billion, up 99% from a year ago
"High production in the third quarter enabled us to capture additional value from higher prices," chief executive Anders Opedal said. Because Equinor pumps its own oil and gas, its cost of bought-in supplies fell by 9.1 percentage points of revenue, and its operating costs and overhead fell by 2.7 percentage points. That lifted the operating margin, excluding one-offs, by 13.6 percentage points to 37.5%.
What to watch: European gas storage and Middle East shipping flows in the fourth quarter. A drop in gas prices back toward last year's $11 per mmbtu would cut quarterly operating profit by several billion dollars.
Refining and Gas Trading Beat the Normal Target Again
Marketing, Midstream and Processing (MMP) is Equinor's unit for refining, pipelines and energy trading. The Norwegian company tells investors to expect about $400 million of operating profit, excluding one-offs, in a normal quarter, and sceptics argue that big trading gains never last. In the third quarter, the unit earned $893 million, more than double that benchmark for a fourth straight quarter.
"At the Mongstad refinery, our operational performance was strong and we achieved record results," Opedal said. Refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East lifted refining margins, while liquefied natural gas trading added $444 million. Those gains covered a $96 million loss in crude and shipping derivatives.
What to watch: MMP operating profit in the fourth quarter. Another reading near $800 million would show that global refining shortages are lasting longer than the $400 million benchmark assumes.
Strong Cash Flow Cut the Debt Ratio Near Zero
Equinor tracks its balance sheet using net debt to capital employed, excluding one-offs and lease liabilities, which measures net borrowings as a share of total funding. Three months ago, the energy group expected this ratio to finish the year slightly below 10%. By September, cash from high oil and gas prices had already pushed the ratio down to 3.8%, from 10.4% in June and 17.8% at the end of 2025.
The company generated $1.11 billion of net cash inflow even after paying $4.08 billion in dividends and share buybacks during the quarter. That allowed the board to launch the final $1.125 billion buyback tranche for 2026.
What to watch: the new capital distribution plan for 2027, which arrives with fourth-quarter results in February. Starting the year with almost no net debt gives the board room to maintain buybacks even if energy prices cool.
International Fields Prompted a Higher Production Plan
Equinor's international division pumps oil and gas outside Norway and the United States. Output in this division jumped 21% from a year ago to 323 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), a measure that combines oil and gas volumes. The gains came from the new Bacalhau field in Brazil and Adura, its UK joint venture with Shell.
Because these fields ramped up smoothly, Opedal raised the full-year company production growth plan from 3% to about 4%. Adura also paid Equinor $225 million in dividends during the quarter, bringing nine-month receipts to $525 million.
What to watch: whether Bacalhau reaches its full production plateau by year-end. Hitting that milestone would keep fourth-quarter output near the 2,248 mboe/d rate that, by our math, the new full-year plan requires.
🐻 Bear Case
Norwegian Tax Bills Took Half of the Extra Profit
Equinor earns most of its profit on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), Norway's offshore oil and gas zone, where the statutory tax rate is 78%. The company pays these taxes in ten instalments spread across the current year and the first half of the next year. In the third quarter, it paid the first two instalments for 2026 earnings, which cost $6.2 billion.
- Operating profit, excluding one-offs: up 99% from a year ago to $12.35 billion
- Total taxes paid in cash: up 74% from a year ago to $6.54 billion
- Cash flow from operations after taxes paid: up 53% from a year ago to $8.14 billion
The tax schedule explains why after-tax cash flow grew at half the pace of operating profit. In the fourth quarter, Equinor must pay three Norwegian tax instalments instead of two. Current tax payable on the balance sheet has climbed to $17.60 billion from $10.99 billion at the end of 2025, so heavy tax outflows will continue into the first half of 2027.
What to watch: fourth-quarter tax payments in February's report. If oil and gas prices drop while Equinor still pays instalments based on this summer's high prices, free cash flow will tighten.
Outages Kept Norwegian Production Flat and Costs Rose
Equinor aims to grow production while cutting its underlying operating and administrative expenses by 10% in 2026. In the third quarter, total output grew 2% to 2,166 mboe/d, but Norwegian production stayed flat at 1,421 mboe/d because of "unplanned losses from Johan Castberg and Troll", two major offshore fields. US output also fell 4% on planned offshore maintenance.
Meanwhile, reported operating and administrative expenses, excluding one-offs, rose 6% over the first nine months to $10.11 billion. In Norway, those costs jumped 16% from a year ago in the third quarter to $1.08 billion on higher maintenance, energy bills and a stronger Norwegian currency, cutting against the cost-reduction narrative.
What to watch: full-year operating expenses and Norwegian field uptime in the fourth quarter. Another quarter of outages at Johan Castberg or rising maintenance bills would show that older fields are getting harder and costlier to run.
A Court Ruling Removed the Empire Wind Loan Risk
Equinor is building Empire Wind, a large offshore wind farm in the United States, and developing Bay du Nord, an offshore oil project in Canada. Both projects worried investors over the past year: US authorities issued a stop-work order on Empire Wind in December 2025, and partner BP exited Bay du Nord.
On September 30, a US court confirmed that the Empire Wind suspension order had expired, which removed the risk that lenders could demand early repayment of the project's $2.7 billion loan. In October, Equinor also sold a 30% stake in Bay du Nord to Shell, reducing its solo exposure. Still, the Power division spent $525 million on capital projects this quarter, mostly on Empire Wind, and remains unprofitable.
What to watch: Empire Wind's progress toward first power in 2027. Any new construction delay would put its expected US tax credits at risk.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Three standing operational and regulatory questions received no new figures in the third-quarter report.
- Johan Sverdrup decline rate: not broken out in the report; full-year field production numbers will show whether decline stayed near 10%.
- NCS 2035 tie-back cost savings: no update on the goal to halve development costs; future project sanctions will test it.
- UK Rosebank permitting and tax rules: not updated in the release; UK regulatory decisions will determine the project's schedule.
💲 Other KPIs
The diluted share count fell 6.0% from a year ago and 2.3% from the second quarter. Equinor paid $3.14 billion in cash for share buybacks during the quarter, which included $3.05 billion to redeem the Norwegian state's proportionate share of prior tranches.
Equinor's share of renewable electricity generation rose 26% from a year ago, measured in terawatt-hours (TWh), a standard unit of large-scale electrical energy. Growth came from the Dogger Bank offshore wind farm in the UK and a new onshore plant in Brazil, while lower gas-fired output pushed total power generation down 4% to 1.32 TWh.
Money owed by customers rose 30.8% from $10.82 billion at the end of 2025, outpacing the 19% rise in nine-month revenue. Higher European gas and oil prices lifted the value of unpaid deliveries at the end of September, contributing to a $595 million working-capital cash drain in the quarter.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. Equinor lifted its full-year production growth plan from 3% to about 4% over 2025's 2,137 mboe/d level. After 5% growth in the first nine months, the new plan implies fourth-quarter output of about 2,248 mboe/d by our math, up 2.2% from a year ago and up from 1.7% growth in the third quarter.
Unchanged. Capital spending on existing businesses (excluding acquisitions and leases) stays at about $13 billion, assuming 10 Norwegian kroner per US dollar. After $9.7 billion spent in the first nine months, the plan leaves about $3.3 billion for the fourth quarter by our math, matching the third quarter's $3.28 billion pace.
Unchanged. Planned maintenance across the full year will reduce daily equity production by about 35 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, slightly above 2025's 30 mboe/d impact.
Unchanged. Equinor reiterated its ambition to "keep the unit of production cost in the top quartile of its peer group", though the written outlook table again omitted the specific $6 per barrel figure given at the start of the year.
❓ Key Questions
What are the expected returns on the Lackawanna power plant?
Equinor agreed to pay $940 million in cash for an 87.71% Class A stake in the Lackawanna gas-fired power plant in Pennsylvania. Investors need to know the expected cash yield and return thresholds under the share structure.
How much did underlying operating costs fall excluding currency?
Reported operating and administrative expenses, excluding one-offs, rose 6% in the first nine months to $10.11 billion. Because the report did not update the 10% underlying cost-cut goal, management should quantify the exact savings after stripping out freight and currency.
How much output did Johan Castberg and Troll lose?
Unplanned outages at Johan Castberg and Troll kept Norwegian production flat in the third quarter despite new fields ramping up. Knowing the exact barrel loss and whether the repairs are finished will clarify fourth-quarter capacity.
What will the 2026 Norwegian tax true-up look like?
European gas prices jumped to $20 per mmbtu in the third quarter after Equinor set its second-half Norwegian tax instalments. Management should state whether it will raise instalments again or leave a larger tax bill for the first half of 2027.