Eldorado Gold (EGO) Q3 2026 earnings review
Eldorado Gold profit rises, but mine delays cut its outlook
High gold prices lifted Eldorado Gold's profit, but construction delays at its new mines forced deep cuts to its annual plan. The gold and copper miner grew revenue 18% from a year ago to $512 million as realized gold prices Above $4,300 per ounce outweighed lower production at Kisladag. New chief executive Christian Milau acknowledged that ramping up the Skouries mine in Greece took longer and cost more than planned, cutting the company's full-year gold production target while raising unit cost and construction budgets.
| Revenue from mines owned a year ago | +15.5% total revenue $511.9M (+17.7% from a year ago) |
|---|---|
| All-in sustaining costs per ounce sold | $2,050 +22.1% from a year ago |
| Full-year total gold production outlook | Cut 18% middle of the range: 450,000 oz (down from 547,500 oz) |
| Skouries Phase 2 project capital | Raised $110M to $1.425B (plus $130M more in pre-commercial operating costs) |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because both new growth projects slipped at the same time as the older mines fell short. Skouries and McIlvenna Bay pushed commercial production to late in the fourth quarter and added $263 million in combined capital and pre-commercial costs, while Kisladag and Olympias forced a cut to the operating mines' output plan. The good news: Skouries produced its first concentrate and connected to the power grid in September, and high-grade Ormaque ore lifted Lamaque production by 13%.
The question now is whether this guidance reset clears the deck for 2027 or signals lasting operating problems at the new plants. Either commissioning the last four tailings filters at Skouries in November unlocks steady production, or filtration and thickener bottlenecks drag into next year and consume more cash. Fourth-quarter commercial production declarations at both Skouries and McIlvenna Bay will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Lamaque Carries the Operating Portfolio
Lamaque, Eldorado's underground gold complex in Quebec, is the only operating mine beating expectations this year. Earlier in 2026 the company received government permission to mine ore from Ormaque, a nearby deposit with richer gold grades. Feeding that richer rock into the mill lifted both the amount of ore processed and the gold recovered from each tonne.
The Canadian complex produced 52,748 ounces of gold in the third quarter, up 12.7% from a year ago. Segment revenue jumped 49.2% to $239.7 million, and earnings from mine operations rose 62.0% to $168.9 million. Management said "increasing contributions from high-grade Ormaque ore" helped offset production shortfalls at its Turkish and Greek mines.
Because development at Ormaque moved faster than planned, Eldorado shifted those underground tunnel costs from growth capital into sustaining capital starting in July. That accounting shift added to Lamaque's all-in sustaining cost (AISC), a measure of total ongoing production costs, which rose 19.8% to $1,436 per ounce sold. Even so, Lamaque remains the group's lowest-cost producer by a wide margin.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gold grades and tonnes milled at Lamaque in the full-year results. Another quarter above 6 grams of gold per tonne would confirm that Ormaque can keep lifting output into 2027.
Higher Gold Prices Lift Operating Margins
Rising market prices for gold and silver are shielding Eldorado's income statement while it spends heavily to finish two new mines. The miner sold its gold for an average price of $4,326 per ounce in the third quarter, up 22.7% from $3,527 a year ago. Including $9.6 million from the newly acquired McIlvenna Bay mine, total revenue grew 17.7% to $511.9 million.
By our math, revenue from mines owned a year ago still rose 15.5% despite an 8.0% drop in their gold output. Operating profit margin expanded by 3.2 percentage points to 42.5% of revenue. Production costs rose by 1.3 percentage points of revenue to 39.0%, but depreciation and amortization (the non-cash charge for past mine investments) fell by 3.0 points to 11.5% on lower Turkish output.
Leaving out the construction bills at Skouries and McIlvenna Bay, the existing mines generated $98.3 million in free cash flow, up 27.8% from $76.9 million a year ago. What to watch: the average realized gold price and by-product silver sales in the fourth quarter. Holding that cash generation near $100 million a quarter is essential because Skouries loan repayments start on December 31, 2026.
🐻 Bear Case
Skouries Costs Rise and 2026 Output Drops
"At Skouries, the ramp-up has taken longer and cost more than we expected, and it is important that we acknowledge that directly," new chief executive Christian Milau said. Skouries is Eldorado's copper-gold mine in northern Greece. On the positive side, the plant produced its first concentrate on September 8 and connected to the national power grid on September 28, allowing workers to remove temporary generators.
Yet the financial and volume toll of the slow start was steep. Only two of the six filter presses that dry out mine waste are running, with the other four due in November. Because throughput is restricted until all filters work, Eldorado cut its 2026 gold outlook for the mine from 60,000–100,000 ounces to 10,000–35,000 ounces, and raised the construction and pre-commercial budgets again.
- 2026 Skouries gold outlook: 10,000–35,000 ounces, down 72% at the middle of the range
- Phase 2 project capital: $1.425 billion, up $110 million ($65 million new costs and $45 million shifted from post-commercial growth capital)
- Accelerated operational capital (pre-commercial operating spend): $390 million, up $130 million ($95 million new costs and $35 million shifted from sustaining capital)
- Potential extra pre-commercial spend: up to $30 million depending on the exact date of commercial production
The company blamed "higher contractor requirements to complete construction and commissioning activities" and "the extended use of temporary generator sets prior to connection to permanent grid power". What to watch: completion of the remaining four tailings filter presses in November 2026 and commercial production in late Q4. Any slip into 2027 will trigger the extra $30 million charge and delay cash inflows.
Unit Costs Break the Old Full-Year Plan
For the first half of 2026, management kept its full-year cost outlook unchanged even though actual costs ran above the top of the target range in both quarters. In the third quarter, the miner finally raised its full-year cost estimates across the board. All-in sustaining costs (AISC), which combine direct mining expenses, royalties, corporate overhead and ongoing mine upkeep, rose 22.1% from a year ago to $2,050 per ounce sold.
Three forces drove the increase. First, Turkiye widened its sliding-scale royalty rates on gold last year, lifting company-wide royalty payments to $31.8 million in the quarter. Second, lower gold output at Kisladag spread fixed plant costs over fewer ounces, pushing Kisladag's AISC up 83.3% to $2,832 per ounce. Third, sustaining capital rose 36.0% to $52.1 million on Lamaque tunnel work and Olympias underground contractors.
What to watch: fourth-quarter AISC per ounce against the revised full-year outlook of $1,975 to $2,125. By our math, hitting the middle of the new full-year range allows fourth-quarter AISC to rise to about $2,265 per ounce, meaning unit costs will stay high into year-end.
Kisladag and Olympias Force Operating Cuts
Eldorado's older mines in Turkiye and Greece are falling behind schedule, forcing a 40,000-ounce cut at the middle of the range for operating-mine gold production this year. At Kisladag, an open-pit heap-leach mine in Turkiye where chemical solution dissolves gold from stacked rock, third-quarter output dropped 38.9% from a year ago to 22,713 ounces.
The company cited lower-grade rock and "slower than planned mining progress during the third quarter, which delayed access to higher-grade material". Because Kisladag's leaching cycle takes about 300 days to extract gold, richer rock stacked now will not lift output until late in the fourth quarter and 2027. At Olympias in Greece, workers had to stockpile ore containing high lead and zinc to keep the processing plant stable.
Olympias also pushed the target throughput for its 650,000-tonne-per-year mill expansion into the first half of 2027, and connecting the new equipment will require a full plant shutdown in the first quarter of 2027. What to watch: how many days the Olympias mill shuts down in the first quarter of 2027, which will show whether next year's output takes another hit.
McIlvenna Bay Commercial Start Slips to Q4
In April 2026 Eldorado issued 64.7 million shares to buy Foran Mining and its McIlvenna Bay copper-zinc-gold-silver mine in Saskatchewan. That share issuance raised Eldorado's diluted share count by 28.4% from a year ago, which is why profit per share excluding one-offs rose only 19.5% to $0.49 even though net profit excluding one-offs climbed 54.3% to $127.0 million.
Last quarter management expected McIlvenna Bay to reach commercial production in the third quarter. Instead, the company pushed commercial production to late in the fourth quarter and raised the project capital budget by $23 million to $975 million. The mill processed 58,832 tonnes of ore in the quarter, producing 1.02 million pounds of copper and 387 ounces of gold, while engineers worked on reagent control and thickener water clarity.
Management also started a study on expanding the mill from 4,900 to 7,000 tonnes per day by 2030 and adding a "dedicated silver‑lead circuit into the flowsheet" by 2028. What to watch: whether McIlvenna Bay declares commercial production before December 31 and brings operating costs down to the targeted $90 to $110 per tonne of ore.
💲 Other KPIs
Cash outflow widened from negative $87.4 million a year ago as capital spending on property, plant and equipment reached $452.3 million (88.4% of revenue by our math). Operating cash flow also dropped 20.8% to $134.8 million after the company paid $97.6 million in July to settle expiring gold and copper swap contracts.
Total debt rose from $1,749.9 million last quarter and $1,275.1 million at the end of 2025. The miner drew $225.0 million on its senior credit facility in the third quarter to fund construction and moved $71.9 million into restricted cash for Skouries loan repayments starting in December. Eldorado bought back zero shares for a second straight quarter.
Surface stockpiles of mined rock waiting for the Skouries processing plant grew by 0.9 million tonnes from last quarter, up from 3.9 million tonnes in Q2 and 0.35 million tonnes a year ago. The pile holds an estimated 176,000 ounces of gold and 61 million pounds of copper, giving the mill plenty of feed once the filter presses finish commissioning.
🔮 Guidance
Cut. Management lowered the middle of the full-year gold production plan by 97,500 ounces, or 17.8%, pointing to an 8% drop from 2025 output by our math. With 311,325 ounces produced in the first nine months, the new plan leaves about 138,675 ounces for the fourth quarter, up 12.4% from a year ago as Skouries and McIlvenna Bay ramp up.
Cut. The outlook for existing mines fell by 40,000 ounces at the middle of the range, to a 14.0% decline from 2025 by our math. That leaves about 109,086 ounces for the fourth quarter, down 11.6% from a year ago, as slower mining at Kisladag and the Olympias expansion delay outweigh high-grade ore at Lamaque.
Cut. Skouries gold output was reduced by 57,500 ounces at the middle of the range, and copper was cut by 20 million pounds. It is the second big cut to Skouries' 2026 volume outlook since last year's 135,000–155,000 ounce gold target, driven by commissioning delays on the tailings filter presses.
Unchanged. The production ranges for the newly acquired Saskatchewan mine held steady despite commercial production moving from the third quarter to late in the fourth quarter. Through September 30, the mine has produced 411 ounces of gold and 1.09 million pounds of copper.
Raised. Management increased the full-year unit cost forecast by $280 per ounce at the middle of the range, implying a 23.2% jump over 2025 costs by our math. By our math, the new midpoint leaves fourth-quarter AISC near $2,265 per ounce sold, up from $2,050 in the third quarter, on higher sustaining capital and Turkish royalties.
Raised. The direct cash cost outlook moved up $130 per ounce at the middle of the range after running at $1,438 per ounce through the first nine months. Higher gold prices automatically lift royalty payments in Turkiye and Greece, while lower volume at Kisladag raises per-ounce processing costs.
Raised. Sustaining capital rose $27.5 million at the middle of the range because Ormaque underground development shifted out of growth capital in July and Olympias needed extra filtration maintenance. Growth capital still rose $22.5 million at the middle of the range on Kisladag land purchases, waste stripping and the Olympias mill expansion.
Raised. Project capital increased by $110 million and pre-commercial operating capital rose by $130 million, with up to $30 million more at risk if commercial production slips. Across the last four updates, the Phase 2 project budget has climbed from $1.06 billion to $1.16 billion, $1.315 billion and now $1.425 billion.
Raised. Eldorado disclosed a total project capital estimate of $975 million from June 2024 to commercial production, noting an increase of about $23 million from its prior estimate due to the slower ramp-up. Post-commercial capital for the rest of 2026 is set at $15 million for growth and $10 million for sustaining work.
Cut. Operating mine depreciation fell by $20 million at the middle of the range because lower production reduces per-unit depletion charges. Skouries depreciation dropped from $15–$35 million to near zero for 2026 because depreciation only starts once the mine declares commercial production in late Q4.
❓ Key Questions
How much do the overruns raise Skouries' 2027 unit costs?
Phase 2 project capital and pre-commercial operating costs at Skouries rose by a combined $240 million this quarter, with another $30 million possible. Management has not said whether higher contractor headcount and operating expenses will carry over into 2027 all-in sustaining costs.
How long will the Olympias plant shut down in Q1?
Connecting the new 650,000-tonne mill equipment at Olympias requires a full plant shutdown in the first quarter of 2027. Knowing the exact duration of that outage is necessary to judge first-quarter gold and base metal production.
When will Eldorado publish 2027 costs for McIlvenna Bay?
Commercial production at McIlvenna Bay slipped to late in the fourth quarter, and the project budget rose by $23 million. Investors still lack 2027 guidance for all-in sustaining costs and sustaining capital at the Saskatchewan mine.
Will credit line repayments delay share buybacks in 2027?
Eldorado drew $325 million on its senior credit facility this year and begins repaying the Skouries project loan on December 31, 2026. New chief executive Christian Milau has not specified how much debt he wants to pay down before restarting share repurchases.