Eldorado Gold (EGO) Q3 2025 earnings review
Skouries Nears Finish Line, But Operating Costs Surge
Eldorado Gold reported a mixed Q3. While revenue jumped 31% YoY to $434.7M driven by record gold prices ($3,527/oz), operational friction at Kisladag and Olympias weighed on production. The headline story is the significant cost escalation: Consolidated AISC surged 26% YoY to $1,679/oz, prompting a sharp upward revision in full-year cost guidance. However, the transformational Skouries project remains on track (73% complete) for first production in Q1 2026, keeping the long-term growth thesis intact despite short-term margin compression.
🐂 Bull Case
The massive Skouries copper-gold project is 73% complete (86% including Phase 1) and remains on schedule for first production in late Q1 2026. With $1.04B in cash/liquidity, funding risk is non-existent.
Amidst struggles elsewhere, Lamaque grew production 9% YoY to 46,823 oz with an impressive Total Cash Cost of $767/oz. It remains the consistent cash engine funding the company's growth.
🐻 Bear Case
Management raised FY25 AISC guidance by ~$200/oz at the midpoint. Higher royalties in Turkiye (price-linked) and operational failures at Olympias are structurally impairing margins despite record gold prices.
The Greek operating mine is bleeding cash. Production fell 36% YoY, and AISC skyrocketed to $2,421/oz due to flotation circuit issues. Management admitted negative impacts could persist until Q2 2026.
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪
Neutral. The Skouries growth story is compelling and imminent, but the core business is suffering from severe cost inflation and operational missteps in Greece. The stock is a 'wait for Skouries' play rather than an operational excellence play right now.
Key Themes
Cost Guidance Blowout
In a significant negative surprise, management raised full-year AISC guidance to $1,600–$1,675/oz (previously $1,370–$1,470/oz). While some of this is due to higher gold-price-linked royalties in Turkiye, a large portion is driven by operational inefficiency at Olympias and Kisladag. This implies Q4 costs will remain elevated.
Skouries Execution on Track
The company's future value hinges on Skouries, and progress is solid. Overall completion is 73%, up from 60% at year-end 2024. Critical path items (filter tailings plant) are progressing. Management confirmed first concentrate is expected in late Q1 2026. Accelerated capital spend indicates confidence in the timeline.
Olympias: A Drag on Performance
Olympias is currently a liability. Production dropped to 13,597 oz (vs 21,211 oz in 24Q3) due to flotation circuit instability caused by backfill modifiers. Consequently, AISC hit $2,421/oz—likely unprofitable on an all-in basis. Management signaled this issue is not a quick fix, with risks extending into 2026.
Lamaque Delivering Consistency
While other assets struggled, the Canadian Lamaque complex grew production to 46,823 oz (+9% YoY) and maintained a Total Cash Cost of $767/oz. It remains the portfolio's reliable anchor, offsetting volatility in the European/Turkish assets.
Turkish Royalty Headwinds
The record gold price is a double-edged sword in Turkiye. New royalty rate tables (effective July 2025) combined with high prices have significantly increased production costs. Management noted royalties accounted for roughly 50% of the cost guidance increase. This is a structural margin compression as long as gold remains near ATHs.
Shareholder Returns Active
Despite heavy capital investment at Skouries ($137M in Q3), EGO repurchased $79M of stock in Q3. This signals management believes the stock is undervalued relative to the looming Skouries cash flow inflection.
Other KPIs
Decelerating. Down from $98.3M in 24Q3 despite much higher gold prices, reflecting the impact of higher taxes, royalties, and capital expenditures at operating mines.
Decelerating. Dropped from $101.1M in 24Q3. While the prior year had a one-off gain, the current result was weighed down by a $164M production cost bill (vs $141M last year) and exploration expenses.
Stable. Cash and cash equivalents stand at $869M. The balance sheet is fully capable of absorbing the remaining Skouries capex without external equity capability.
Guidance
Tightened. Previously 460k-500k. The midpoint remains roughly unchanged, but the upside has been capped due to Kisladag and Olympias underperformance.
Accelerating (Negative). Massive increase from prior guide of $1,370 - $1,470. Management cites higher royalties and Olympias inefficiencies. This implies Q4 costs will remain high.
Accelerating. Raised from $400-$450M. This is a timing shift (accelerating work from 2026 into 2025) rather than a cost blowout, as the total project budget of $1.06B remains unchanged.
Key Questions
Olympias Viability
With AISC exceeding $2,400/oz and recovery issues persisting until Q2 2026, at what point does it make sense to place Olympias on care and maintenance until the circuit is fixed?
Skouries Critical Path Risks
The filter tailings plant is the critical path item. Can you quantify the schedule buffer currently built in before the late Q1 2026 first production target?
Kisladag Grade Profile
Kisladag production dropped significantly due to 'lower tonnes placed.' Is this a short-term equipment availability issue, or a sign of grade/stacking capability deterioration in the open pit?