Excelerate Energy (EE) Q3 2026 earnings review
Excelerate Energy profit hits a record, while gas sales drop
Excelerate Energy, an operator of floating liquefied natural gas terminals, earned record profit even as pass-through gas sales fell. Revenue dropped 24% from a year ago because of cargo delivery timing, while terminal revenue grew 14% on a new vessel charter in Jordan. Chief executive Steven Kobos lifted the bottom of the full-year profit plan, leaving fourth-quarter profit before interest, tax, depreciation and one-offs up 15% by our math.
| Terminal services revenue | $165.7M +13.6% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $297.2M -24.0% from a year ago |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $133.5M +3.2% from a year ago |
| Full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook | Raised $2.5M middle of the range: $505M (+12.4%) |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because the company signed its first long-term Caribbean supply deal outside Jamaica with AxDo Bahamas and extended a vessel charter in Brazil through 2038. One caution: the conflict in the Arabian Gulf forced Excelerate to reassign vessels for its upcoming Iraq and Colombia projects to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and growth capital spending rose again while maintenance was deferred.
The question now is whether integrated gas supply projects in Iraq and the Caribbean can start on time and hold their target returns despite conflict workarounds and rising capital budgets. Either these deals lift cash flow next year as vessels start work, or vessel swaps and shipyard bills eat into the gains. Second-quarter 2027 startup in Iraq and 2027 capital spending plans will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Jordan Charter Lifted Profit Despite Lower Gas Sales
"Excelerate delivered record quarterly earnings, reflecting the essential role our infrastructure plays in strengthening energy security for the markets we serve," chief executive Steven Kobos said. Excelerate Energy rents out floating terminals that turn liquefied natural gas (LNG) back into gas, and it also sells gas and power directly.
Total revenue fell 24.0% from a year ago to $297.2 million because the energy group had fewer cargo deliveries under its Atlantic Basin supply deal. Even so, operating profit rose 8.4% to $94.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA — profit before interest, tax, depreciation and one-offs — reached $133.5 million.
- Terminal services revenue: $165.7 million, up 13.6% from a year ago
- Cost of LNG, gas and power: 30.7% of revenue, down 20.9 percentage points
- Selling, general and administrative expenses: 9.7% of revenue, up 3.7 percentage points
Profit rose while revenue fell because gas cargo sales mostly pass fuel costs straight through to customers, whereas vessel charters carry much higher margins. The new vessel charter in Jordan and wider direct margins on gas and power sales drove the gain, the company said.
What to watch: fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA against the $129.3 million implied by the full-year outlook. A result near the top of the $495–515 million full-year range would show that fourth-quarter Atlantic Basin cargo deliveries arrived on schedule.
Bahamas Deal Expands the Jamaica Caribbean Hub
Excelerate bought its Jamaican gas and power business in May 2025 to serve as a hub for nearby islands. This quarter Kobos pointed to commercial progress in the Caribbean, "adding diversity to our portfolio and reinforcing our position as a global provider of critical LNG infrastructure."
The company signed an 11-year agreement to supply up to 16 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) of LNG per year to AxDo Bahamas, a new joint venture serving the Caribbean. Initial deliveries start in the first quarter of 2027 from the existing Jamaica hub, and Excelerate plans to moor a floating storage unit near Grand Bahama in the second half of 2028.
This contract is the first multi-year expansion of the Caribbean platform outside Jamaica, so Phase 1 brings new sales next year without waiting for new terminals. However, the release gave no dollar profit figure for the deal and wait times for permits still govern the 2028 storage unit.
What to watch: first-quarter 2027 LNG, gas and power direct margin once Bahamas deliveries begin. A step-up in direct margin would confirm that regional hub sales earn more than pass-through cargo trades.
Petrobras Extension Locks In Brazil Vessel Through 2038
Excelerate relies on long-term vessel charters for its steady base of terminal services revenue. In August 2026, the US company signed a five-year contract extension with Brazilian state oil company Petrobras for the Sequoia, a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), keeping the vessel under contract through 2038.
As part of the deal, the operator will install a reliquefaction unit on the vessel during its 2028 dry dock to capture gas that boils off during storage. In exchange, contracted revenue on the Sequoia will rise starting in 2028, ahead of the extension period. That upgrade secures 12 years of cash flow from a major customer and lifts earnings in 2028 when another vessel charter is due to expire.
What to watch: capital cost and revenue uplift disclosures for the Sequoia upgrade in the 2026 annual report. Those numbers will show the return on the 2028 dry-dock investment.
🐻 Bear Case
Gulf Conflict Forces Vessel Swaps for Two Projects
Excelerate is building Iraq's first LNG import terminal for a targeted startup in the second quarter of 2027, and it has a seven-year charter in Colombia starting in the first quarter of 2027. Both projects are central to next year's growth after the Iraq startup already moved from 2026 into 2027 earlier this year.
Because of the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, the company changed its vessel plans for both countries, "eliminating the need for an FSRU to transit the Strait of Hormuz". For Iraq, it will use a vessel already inside the Gulf, and for Colombia it will use vessels located outside the Gulf in the near term instead of the FSRU Express, which is currently inside the region.
Work crews and materials are now on site in Iraq, so construction is moving ahead. Still, swapping vessels across two continents shows that the closed strait is constraining fleet movements, and Excelerate must also find LNG supply for Iraq from within the Gulf.
What to watch: vessel assignment and charter status for the FSRU Express in the first quarter of 2027. Any uncontracted days for the vessel inside the Gulf would cut into the profit gain expected from the Colombia start.
Growth Spending Rises Again While Maintenance Shifts Out
Excelerate said its total capital spending for 2026 generally stays in line with its earlier plan. Underneath that total, however, the company raised its 2026 committed growth capital outlook by $15 million at the middle of the range to $400–410 million, while cutting maintenance capital spending by $20 million to $65–75 million.
- Committed growth capital outlook: $400–410 million, up from $270–300 million in the first quarter
- Maintenance capital outlook: $65–75 million, down from $100–110 million in the first quarter
- Nine-month property and equipment purchases: $313.6 million, up from $129.4 million a year ago
The company attributed the higher growth budget to "timing of spend for the FSRU conversion project" and the lower maintenance budget to an "expected deferral of certain planned maintenance activities". Deferring maintenance keeps 2026 cash outflow steady on paper, but it pushes those required dry-dock bills into 2027 on top of rising project outlays.
What to watch: 2027 maintenance and growth capital budgets when full-year 2027 plans are issued next quarter. A jump in 2027 maintenance spending will show the cash cost of the work deferred from 2026.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Several standing risks from prior quarters received no new figures in the third-quarter earnings release, so they remain open pending the conference call and quarterly filing.
- Total vessel conversion cost: Seatrium won the contract, but the release gave no total budget to test whether returns hold above the earlier $200 million mark.
- QatarEnergy force majeure on Bangladesh supply: no update on the roughly $1 million monthly drag while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- 2028 charter expiry and customer concentration: no new disclosure on recontracting the 2028 lease step-down or the revenue share of top state-linked utility customers.
- Controlled company structure: non-controlling interests took $45.8 million of the $60.0 million total net income; the quarterly filing will update related-party and tax receivable balances.
👓 Other Themes
Seatrium Wins the First Vessel Conversion Contract
In July 2026, Excelerate agreed to buy an LNG carrier, the Methane Patricia Camila, to convert into a floating regasification terminal. In October, the company awarded shipyard group Seatrium the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning contract for the conversion. The converted vessel is scheduled to be ready for commercial work in 2028, though it does not yet have a customer contract.
💲 Other KPIs
By our math, free cash flow — operating cash flow minus property and equipment purchases — turned positive at $50.5 million in the third quarter, after a $109.6 million outflow in the first half. Capital spending slowed to $29.8 million in the quarter, though the full-year outlook implies about $161.4 million of capital spending in the fourth quarter.
By our math, total debt and finance leases minus unrestricted cash rose 19.4% from $730.0 million at the end of 2025. Unrestricted cash fell from $538.2 million at year-end to $356.7 million as the energy infrastructure group paid for new vessels, Iraq construction and share buybacks without drawing on its $500 million credit line.
Weighted average diluted Class A shares fell 1.4% from 32.7 million a year ago and 0.4% from the second quarter. By our math, the Texas-based company spent $9.7 million buying back shares in the third quarter, bringing nine-month repurchases to $38.1 million.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. Excelerate lifted the bottom of its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook by $5 million, raising the middle of the range by $2.5 million to $505 million, or 12.4% growth from 2025. By our math, that leaves $129.3 million for the fourth quarter, up 14.9% from a year ago. After cutting the range by $35 million in the first quarter on the Iraq delay, management has raised the middle twice: +$7.5M and +$2.5M.
Raised. The middle of the full-year committed growth capital plan moved up $15 million to $405 million. Management said the increase comes from the timing of payments on the vessel conversion project, following a $105 million increase at the middle of the range last quarter when Iraq and conversion payments were pulled forward.
Cut. The middle of the full-year maintenance capital plan dropped $20 million to $70 million, following a $15 million reduction last quarter. The LNG terminal operator said the lower budget reflects the deferral of planned maintenance into later periods rather than permanent cost savings.
❓ Key Questions
What is the total budget for the Seatrium vessel conversion?
Excelerate awarded Seatrium the conversion contract and raised its 2026 growth capital plan, but it has not given a new total project cost since saying last quarter that the budget would exceed $200 million.
What will the FSRU Express do while blocked from Colombia?
Other vessels outside the Arabian Gulf will cover the Colombia contract starting in the first quarter of 2027 so the Express does not have to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Investors need to know whether the Express will earn charter revenue inside the Gulf instead.
How much profit will the Bahamas hub add in 2027?
The 11-year AxDo contract is the first multi-year expansion of the Jamaica hub, with deliveries up to 16 TBtu per year starting in early 2027. Management has not said how much of its $80–110 million 2030 Caribbean EBITDA target this deal covers.
How much deferred 2026 maintenance will hit the 2027 budget?
Management has cut 2026 maintenance capital spending from $100–110 million to $65–75 million over the past two quarters by pushing dry-dock and maintenance work out. The size of the 2027 catch-up bill will determine next year's free cash flow.