Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) Q3 2026 earnings review
Ginkgo's cash burn falls, but revenue depends on one contract
Ginkgo, which sells robot-run labs and lab services, signed its first big drug-company lab sale while regular revenue kept shrinking. Chief executive Jason Kelly announced the deal with Novo Nordisk. Reported revenue rose from last quarter, but a one-time adjustment on one contract explains all of that gain. Without it, sales came to about $13 million by our math, well under half of last year's level.
| Revenue without the one-time contract adjustment | $12.7M −57% from a year ago, by our math |
|---|---|
| Reported revenue | $27.7M −6% from a year ago; $20.2M last quarter |
| Cash burn | $27M $45M last quarter |
| Full-year cash burn outlook | Unchanged $125–150 million |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged, because lower cash use and new lab sales balance a core business that shrank again. Cash burn fell to $27 million, and the company kept its full-year cash plan. The bad news: Ginkgo still sold new shares, and by our math its underlying loss widened.
The question now is whether lab sales like the Novo deal can replace the fading service contracts. Either the labs bring steady equipment and software revenue, or they stay rare projects that pay out late. Installations, which Kelly said usually take 6 to 12 months, will tell next year.
🐂 Bull Case
Novo Buys a Ginkgo Robot Lab
Ginkgo builds autonomous labs, rows of robotic carts called RACs that move samples between instruments without a technician. Chief executive Jason Kelly announced a sale to Novo Nordisk, the drug maker. "This is our first sort of big pharma announcement of an autonomous lab," he said.
The US health research agency ARPA-H also hired Ginkgo for a subcontract worth up to $17.5 million. But Kelly said "we'll recognize revenue when the system is installed", and installation usually follows an order by 6 to 12 months.
So the orders show real demand, but each one reaches revenue late and in lumps, and Ginkgo reports no revenue figure for this business.
What to watch: an installation date for the $47 million Pacific Northwest National Laboratory order, which Ginkgo has not given. A date in 2027 would turn its largest award into reported revenue.
Cash Burn Fell to $27 Million
Ginkgo no longer forecasts revenue and judges itself on cash burn, the drop in cash and securities excluding share sales. Finance chief Steve Coen kept the plan of $125–150 million for the year. That target looked hard after the first half used $93 million.
Burn then fell to $27 million in the third quarter, from $45 million in the second, and that puts the full-year plan within reach.
This matters because cash, not revenue, decides how long Ginkgo can fund its lab plan. At the third-quarter pace, its $285 million of cash and securities lasts more than ten quarters, by our math, so a forced share sale looks less likely.
What to watch: fourth-quarter cash burn, due in February. A figure near the middle of the plan would show that the slower spending pace is holding.
Cheap Robot Drug Tests Win 20 New Customers
ADME-One is a Ginkgo service that runs five standard tests on a potential drug, such as how the body absorbs it. Robots in Boston do the work for $199 per compound, which the release calls "orders of magnitude cheaper than WuXi", a large Chinese research contractor.
In the third quarter, 22 ADME customers signed up, and 20 had never worked with Ginkgo before. Four drug makers, including Takeda and AbbVie, also founded a Ginkgo consortium that tests antibody designs.
Chief executive Jason Kelly said drug makers now split chemistry and testing between suppliers to protect their molecules. That helps Ginkgo, but it reports no revenue for these services.
What to watch: any figure for repeat orders or for revenue from these robot-run services in the February results. Without one, new sign-ups cannot show whether the low price earns money.
🐻 Bear Case
One Contract Change Lifted the Quarter's Revenue
The release said revenue rose to $28 million from $20 million in the second quarter. Finance chief Steve Coen traced the jump to "a cumulative catch-up on one of our larger long-term contracts". A drug-company customer amended that deal, so Ginkgo booked revenue for work done earlier.
The filing puts that past-period revenue at $15.0 million, more than the whole rise from the second quarter. It also cites "a decrease in the scope of services provided to a large enterprise customer in the agriculture industry".
- Revenue without the catch-up: about $12.7 million, down 57% from a year ago, by our math
- Research spending: down 41% as reported, but 13% without last year's Google Cloud charge
Chief executive Jason Kelly said "We made a big push to cut back on spending". Much of the drop in research costs, though, came from lapping a $22.3 million cloud-computing charge. Without both one-offs, the loss before interest, tax, depreciation and stock pay widened to about $37 million from $30 million, by our math.
What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue in February, net of any catch-up. A figure near $13 million would confirm that the core service business is still shrinking.
Empty Buildings Still Cost $14 Million a Quarter
After cutting more than half its staff since 2024, Ginkgo still pays rent on labs and offices it no longer uses. That carrying cost of empty space came to $14.0 million in the quarter, close to the year-ago level. Finance chief Steve Coen said the cost "can potentially be mitigated through subleasing".
The filing sounds less hopeful, warning that subleasing "may not occur prior to termination of such lease". Ginkgo carries $397 million of long-term lease liabilities. The empty space cost 50.5% of revenue, up 1.7 percentage points from a year ago, and more than all revenue without the catch-up.
What to watch: the empty-space line in the February results. A figure below $13 million would show that new subleases have started to cut the bill.
Ginkgo Keeps Selling New Shares
Ginkgo funds part of its losses by selling new stock through an at-the-market programme, which lets it sell shares gradually on the exchange. In the third quarter it sold 893,333 shares for $6.5 million after costs.
- Average share count: up 15% from a year ago
- Shares outstanding: 64.5 million, up 11% since December, after 313,822 old merger shares lapsed
- Money raised since the programme began in September 2025: $41.1 million after costs
This matters because each sale shrinks the slice of the company that existing owners hold. Lower cash burn reduces the need, yet Ginkgo kept issuing stock during the quarter.
What to watch: share sales in the fourth quarter. Further sales while burn falls would mean Ginkgo is adding to its cash rather than covering a gap.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Several standing concerns got no new answer in the release, the filing or the call, so each still waits for a specific disclosure from the company.
- Prepaid work for Allonnia and Arcaea, two former partner ventures: $64.9 million, untouched all year; recognition or a write-off would settle it
- Customer activity: still no count of active programmes; a count would show whether the base is growing
- Lab revenue: finance chief Steve Coen gave no revenue forecast and will set 2027 plans in February
- Government money: federal programmes pay for the university, health-agency and national-lab orders, and the release lists a shutdown as a risk
- Rivals: chief executive Jason Kelly cited "a big switching cost for people to go with new vendors"; a second big drug-company order would test it
- Break-even goal for 2026: unmentioned for a fourth quarter
- Perimeter, the sold biosecurity unit: Ginkgo's stake fell to $5.6 million from $12.3 million
What to watch: the annual report in February, which will update the prepaid balances, the Perimeter stake and the list of federal contracts behind the lab orders.
👓 Other Themes
US Government Funds Robot Labs as National Infrastructure
The US government is paying for autonomous labs. The release names the Genesis Mission, a roughly $400 million test-bed programme at the National Science Foundation, and the $1.5 billion X-Labs initiative. Ginkgo gives X-Labs access to Nebula, its Boston robot lab. These programmes fund the company's university and national-lab orders, but federal budgets set their size and timing.
💲 Other KPIs
Contracted work rose for the first time this year, to $125.6 million from $113.0 million in June. This measure, called remaining performance obligations, is signed work Ginkgo has not yet delivered. It had dropped from $136.8 million in December. Only $4.8 million falls due in 2026, so most of the book turns into revenue in later years.
Prepaid balances shrank 12.7% from June, the steepest quarterly drop since at least early 2025, as the lab maker booked prepaid work as revenue. Deferred revenue is cash customers paid before the work. Leaving out two frozen partner balances, only $13.5 million remains, against $24.8 million in June, by our math.
Accounts receivable, money customers owe for work already done, fell to $11.5 million from $24.0 million in December. About $8.4 million of it is work not yet invoiced. Customers paid more than the Boston company billed them, which helped this year's cash flow.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The plan still has Ginkgo burning $125–150 million of cash this year. By our math, that leaves about $18 million for Q4 at the middle of the range. Finance chief Steve Coen has kept the same range all year, and nine months at $120 million make it reachable.
❓ Key Questions
When will Ginkgo install the Novo and national lab systems?
Ginkgo books equipment revenue only at installation, and Kelly put the usual lag at 6 to 12 months. Dates for the Novo and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory installs would show when lab sales reach reported revenue.
Will the contract catch-up repeat or reverse?
Ginkgo booked $15.0 million for past work after a drug-company customer amended its contract. Investors need to know whether more such adjustments are coming and what that contract will pay each quarter from now on.
What happens to $64.9 million of partner prepayments?
Allonnia and Arcaea paid in advance for work Ginkgo has not performed this year. A plan to deliver that work, or to write it off, would clarify most of the remaining deferred revenue.
How much do the robot-run testing services earn?
Ginkgo signed 22 drug-testing customers and works with AI labs such as OpenAI, but gives no revenue for these services. A revenue figure or a repeat-order rate would show whether the low price supports a business.
What brought cash burn down to $27 million?
Burn fell by $18 million from the second quarter, while the underlying operating loss did not shrink, by our math. A split between lasting savings and payment timing would show whether the fourth quarter can stay low.