Grupo Cibest (CIB) Q3 2026 earnings review
Grupo Cibest lends faster to companies, but bad loans cost more
Grupo Cibest, owner of Colombian lender Bancolombia, lent heavily to companies, while profit dropped back from an unusual high. Its loan book grew 4% in three months, and chief executive Juan Carlos Mora raised the lending plan. Profit fell 24% from the second quarter, when bond gains were exceptional. Excluding Banistmo, a Panama bank it sold, profit rose about 6% from a year ago by our math.
| Loans | COP 274 trillion +10% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Profit, leaving out the Panama bank sold in June | +6% −3% as reported |
| Share of loans set aside for losses | 1.80% 1.56% last quarter |
| 2026 lending outlook | Raised to 8–9% was 7–8% |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because companies started borrowing again, and Mora now plans for more of it. He lifted this year's lending target and set a higher one for 2027. The bad news: the cost of bad loans is climbing, and the 2027 plan sets it at about 2% of loans.
The question now is whether cheaper loans to companies still pay once loan losses rise. If borrowers stay sound, interest income grows with lending; if the August earthquake and drought hurt them, loss charges cancel the gain. Fourth-quarter loss charges will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Companies Borrowed Again, and the Lending Plan Rose
Grupo Cibest makes most of its money lending to Colombian companies, and that business stood still in the first half. Three months ago the group kept a full-year loan target that, by our math, needed a sharp pickup in the second half.
That pickup came in the third quarter. Business loans rose 5.5% in three months, after a small dip in the second quarter. Chief executive Juan Carlos Mora then announced he was "revising our loan growth outlook upward" and tied the move to "stronger demand for commercial loans in Colombia".
- Total loans without currency moves: up 5.1% in the quarter, the company said
- Business loans: up 10.3% from a year ago
- Consumer loans: up 2.0% in the quarter
- 2026 loan target: 8–9%, from 7–8%
This settles a worry that ran for several quarters, because a strong quarter now comes with a higher target from people who see the loan pipeline. The bank paid for the growth with what it calls a "differentiated pricing strategy", and Mora sounded "a little less optimistic" about consumer lending.
What to watch: loan growth in the fourth quarter. By our math, the new target needs only about 1.7% more, so a figure well above it would show that business demand is lasting.
High Interest Rates Still Lift Lending Income
Grupo Cibest earns more when Colombia's central bank raises rates, because its loan rates reset faster than its deposit costs. Net interest income, what it earns on loans and bonds minus what it pays savers, rose 15.8% from a year ago.
Finance chief Mauricio Botero Wolff blamed the drop since June on "the normalization of treasury income following an exceptionally strong second quarter". The yield on the bank's bond holdings fell to 3.76%, while its lending margin slipped only to 8.11%. Both readings landed inside what the full-year outlook implied, so that plan was accurate, not cautious.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter margin, which needs about 7.6% by our math. Rate cuts would shrink it; Botero said that once rates fall, "ROE should be around 20%", a yearly profit near a fifth of equity.
Fee Income Rose 15% on Lower Payment Costs
Fees are Grupo Cibest's second source of income, from cards, payments, insurance sold at its branches and investment banking. Net fee income rose 15.5% from a year ago, but gross fees grew only 6.5%.
The difference came from costs. The group paid 7.2% less in fee expenses, partly because the stronger peso cut the bill for dollar contracts. Insurance sold with the insurer Sura did best, up 17%, Botero said.
What to watch: fee growth in 2027. Botero said the cost savings are "probably not going to be sustainable" and expects about 12% growth, so a figure near that would show fees still add to profit as the savings end.
Positives this quarter didn't test
Two standing strengths got a reading this quarter, but neither faced a real test of how long it lasts. Each line names the figure that would move it.
- Cash returns to owners: the group paid a COP 1.2 trillion special dividend from the sale of Banistmo, its former Panama bank, on September 1; the size of next year's ordinary dividend will show the pace.
- Capital tools: Bancolombia sold its parent a COP 1 trillion bond that counts as top-tier capital; the year-end capital ratio will show whether such tools keep growth funded.
🐻 Bear Case
Bad-Loan Costs Climb, and 2027 Plan Expects More
Grupo Cibest's charge for loans it expects to go bad rose 43% from a year ago. That charge now takes 20.8% of net interest income, up 4.0 percentage points.
Botero said: "Delinquency ratios remained well contained across portfolios during the quarter and reflect a meaningful reduction on a yearly basis." Overall late payments did fall, but only because business borrowers improved. The company cited "greater deterioration in credit card and UVR-denominated mortgage portfolios", home loans that rise with inflation.
- Cost of risk, the yearly loss charge as a share of loans: 1.80%, from 1.56% last quarter
- Consumer loans more than 30 days late: 5.54%, from 5.36% a year ago
- Mortgages more than 30 days late: 5.69%, from 5.40% a year ago
This matters because the 2027 plan sets the loss charge higher, at 1.9–2.1%. Mora said "we are conservative on the cost of risk for 2027" because El Niño, a weather pattern, threatens farming. Botero expects "some deterioration going forward" from the August earthquake.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter cost of risk. By our math, this year's range leaves room for about 1.7%; a reading at 1.8% or above would mean the 2027 rise came early.
Nequi Grew Loans, but Lost Money on Paper
Nequi, the group's phone-based bank, has 23.8 million active accounts. On September 1 it left Bancolombia to become a separate finance company, in what the group called "a transition period for Nequi".
Its own books showed a loss of COP 5.8 billion, with one month of income and one-off charges. Botero offered a management view instead: a COP 33 billion profit. Mora called Nequi "still small", about 2% of group profit.
The test is credit. Nequi lends small sums to people without a credit history, and its loans grew 12% in the quarter, Botero said. Excluding a one-off, its cost of risk, the yearly loss charge, stayed at 16.9%, against 1.8% for the whole group.
What to watch: Nequi's cost of risk as lending grows. A rise above 16.9% would mean faster lending is reaching weaker borrowers.
Loans Outgrew Deposits, and Funding Costs Rose
A bank funds loans mainly with customer deposits, and cheap savings and checking accounts keep its costs low. This quarter Grupo Cibest lent far faster than it gathered deposits, and Nequi's split moved some deposits out of Bancolombia.
- Loans: up 4.3% in the quarter
- Deposits: up 1.5% in the quarter
- Loans as a share of deposits: 99.5%, from 96.8% in June
- Average cost of deposits: 4.50%, from 4.40% in June
To close the gap, the bank took time deposits from institutions, which cost more than savings accounts. Botero said business lending will "push us in terms of funding to get funding from institutional investors", so new loans earn thinner margins.
What to watch: loans as a share of deposits at year-end. A ratio above 100% would mean growth relies on costlier money, which would squeeze the margin the 2027 plan counts on.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Several standing risks sit in Colombia's economy rather than in the bank's own numbers, and this quarter brought no test of them. Each line names the reading that would move it.
- Government finances: chief economist Laura Clavijo sees the deficit widening to 7.9% of GDP in 2027; congress's vote on a rescue bill before year-end will show the path.
- New taxes: that bill contains "additional taxes"; its final text will show whether banks pay more, as they did with this year's wealth tax.
- Inflation and El Niño: Clavijo expects inflation to peak at 7.3% in early 2027; the central bank's next decisions will show how long rates stay high.
- Usury cap, the legal ceiling on loan rates: congress is debating how to calculate it; Mora called a higher cap an opportunity, and any change would show in consumer lending.
👓 Other Themes
The Tax Rate Returned to About 30%
Grupo Cibest paid an effective tax rate of 29.8% this quarter. The second quarter looked cheaper because the group reversed COP 153 billion of deferred tax after Colombia's Constitutional Court struck down a surtax on banks. That one-off explains part of the profit drop from June.
💲 Other KPIs
Rose to 98% from 94.6% in June, the third rise in a row. Double leverage compares what the holding company has invested in its banks with its own equity; above 100% means debt funds part of it. The special dividend drove the move. Botero expects 100–105% in 2027, below the 120% rating agencies accept.
Slipped to 14.01% from 14.19% in June and 14.29% a year ago. Risk-weighted loans grew faster than capital, and Bancolombia paid a special dividend to its parent. A COP 1 trillion bond that counts as capital softened the fall. Three months ago Botero pointed to 15.3% by year-end.
Unchanged from June, so the group bought back no shares in the third quarter. The count sits 1.0% below a year ago after two buyback programmes. Botero said "the buyback program is executed only on market conditions", while ordinary dividends should grow 2–3 points above inflation.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The plan now has the loan book up 8–9% this year, against 7–8% before. By our math, loans have grown 6.7% since December. That leaves about 1.7% for the fourth quarter, well below this quarter's 4.3%. The group has not said whether currency swings count.
Unchanged. The plan still has the margin averaging about 7.5% this year. The group earned 7.48% over nine months, so by our math the fourth quarter needs about 7.6%. Management lifted this range three times before holding it, from 6.3–6.5% a year ago.
Unchanged. The plan keeps this year's loss charge at 1.6–1.8% of loans. Botero put the nine-month figure at 1.7%, so by our math a similar fourth quarter lands in the middle. He said the earthquake brings "no expected impact" on this range.
Unchanged. Operating costs should take about 48% of income this year, where a lower figure is better. The group ran at 47.7% over nine months. Excluding this year's wealth tax, costs rose about 1 percentage point less than inflation, Botero said.
Unchanged. The plan has profit at 21–22% of shareholders' equity this year. The group earned 21.7% over nine months, so by our math the fourth quarter needs only about 20.9%. This target climbed three times in a year, from 16–17%, before this hold.
New. Botero expects about COP 8.5 trillion of profit this year, in the upper part of the return range. By our math, that leaves about COP 2.2 trillion for the fourth quarter, slightly above this quarter. That would be about 39% more than a year earlier, excluding the Banistmo write-down.
Raised. The 2027 plan has loans up 9–10%, led by business lending in Colombia, against about 8% Botero mentioned three months ago. Mora made it depend on the fiscal deficit narrowing "in an orderly and gradual way". He expects consumer loans to grow more slowly.
New. The 2027 margin sits about 0.1 percentage points above this year's middle. Botero said rates start next year higher and should hold until the fourth quarter. That lifts the yearly average even though cheaper business loans weigh on it.
New. The 2027 loss charge sits about 0.3 percentage points above this year's middle. Botero linked most of the rise to loan growth, and Mora cited El Niño's expected hit to farming. So the margin after loan losses narrows next year while the headline margin edges up.
New. The 2027 plan has costs at 46–47% of income, below this year's roughly 48%. Mora said the group stays committed to cost discipline while it keeps investing in its transformation. Botero described an AI programme meant to raise productivity.
New. Botero expects profit of 21–22% of equity in 2027, about the same as this year. He called next year's high rates a help. Once rates and inflation settle lower, he sees the return near 20%.
New. Botero expects profit to grow 8–10% in 2027, to about COP 9.2–9.3 trillion. That sits just below the 10.5% rise the group reported for the first nine months of this year, without Banistmo.
New. Botero expects net fees to rise about 12% next year, with fee income and fee costs each up 10–12%. This year's savings on fee costs will not repeat, he said, so growth eases from the current 15% pace.
New. Botero expects Nequi to earn 28–30% on its equity in 2027, after about 28% this year, as its loans grow. On management figures Nequi earned 23% this quarter, or 28% without the separation one-offs.
❓ Key Questions
Does the 8–9% loan plan include currency swings?
About a fifth of loans are in dollars, and the peso keeps moving. Without the basis, readers cannot tell whether the fourth quarter needs about 1.7% growth or something different.
How much will the earthquake add to loan losses?
Botero expects some deterioration in the affected areas and is building provisions. A figure for the exposure would show how much of the higher 2027 loss charge it explains.
When will Nequi's official accounts show a profit?
Nequi reported an accounting loss while management showed a profit on its own basis. Botero said the two views should converge in 2027; a date and a ceiling for Nequi's loss charge would test that.
Why did share buybacks stop in the third quarter?
The share count did not move from June, although the three-year programme has room left. Knowing what price or capital level restarts it would show how much cash goes back to owners.
How far has sustainable lending reached toward 2030?
The group targets at least COP 629 trillion of such lending by 2030. The materials for this quarter give no updated total, so the pace toward that goal cannot be checked.