Codere Online (CDRO) Q3 2026 earnings review
Codere Online betting revenue jumps, but its outlook stays flat
Codere Online, an online sports-betting and casino operator in Spain and Latin America, grew top-line wagers fast while keeping its full-year targets still. Gaming Win — cash kept from bets after prizes and bonuses — rose 23% in constant currency and 30% in euros to €67 million, lifting Adjusted EBITDA 45%. Finance chief Marcus Arildsson left the full-year outlook unchanged because July got a one-off boost from the World Cup and currency gains, and by our math the plan points to a 3% decline in the fourth quarter.
| Gaming Win in constant currency | +23% +30% in euros to €67.1M |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | €4.2M +45% from a year ago |
| Mexico country Adjusted EBITDA | €1.7M -15% from a year ago |
| Full-year Gaming Win outlook | Unchanged €255–265M (16% growth at middle) |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The standing case is unchanged because the third-quarter surge rested on tournament and currency tailwinds that management does not expect to carry into year-end. Operating leverage on technology and staff costs helped overall earnings, and higher casino spending per player offset slower user growth. The bad news: Mexico country profit fell 15% as higher betting taxes and a 25% jump in customer acquisition costs ate up the revenue gain, while total active players slipped for a second straight quarter.
The question now is whether the unraised full-year plan is just management caution or a sign that growth stalls without the World Cup. If the plan is cautious, fourth-quarter Gaming Win will beat the top of the annual range; if tournament players left and Mexican competition intensified, fourth-quarter results will drop as implied. Fourth-quarter results and next year's initial outlook will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Higher Spend Per Player Drove 30% Growth
Codere Online, an online sports-betting and casino operator in Spain and Latin America, tracks its top line through Gaming Win, the cash kept from bets after prizes and promotional credits. Gaming Win rose 30% from a year ago to €67.1 million, while IFRS accounting revenue grew 31% to €62.6 million. In constant currency, which removes the boost from a stronger Mexican peso, Gaming Win still rose 23%.
- Average monthly spend per active player: €134, up 24% from €108 a year ago
- Mexico spend per active player: up 43% from a year ago
- Spain spend per active player: up 7% from a year ago
- Casino share of Gaming Win: 67%, up from 62% last quarter
That spending jump mattered because total monthly active players grew only 5% from a year ago to 166,800. Finance chief Marcus Arildsson said the quarter "benefited from the final stages of the World Cup in July and from favorable exchange rates", and the shift toward casino games also lifted revenue per user.
What to watch: average monthly spend per active player in the fourth quarter. A reading that stays near €134 without a major soccer tournament would show that casino usage, not just summer sports betting, is holding player value up.
Operating Leverage Lifted Earnings 45%
Adjusted EBITDA — operating profit before depreciation, taxes, employee stock plans and one-offs — rose 45% from a year ago to €4.2 million. As a share of Gaming Win, that margin rose by 0.6 percentage points to 6.3%, because fixed technology and staff bills grew much slower than betting volume.
Platform and content fees, which cover payment processing and sports data feeds, fell by 4.3 percentage points of Gaming Win to 23.8%. Personnel costs dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 7.7%. Those savings more than covered higher tax and advertising bills across the group.
What to watch: fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA against the €6.4 million implied by the middle of the full-year plan. Hitting that mark requires the margin on Gaming Win to reach 10.8% by our math, up from 6.3% this quarter.
🐻 Bear Case
Mexico Profit Shrank on Taxes and Marketing
Chief executive Aviv Sher said the third quarter showed strong growth driven mainly by Mexico, where Gaming Win rose 39% in euros and 26% in constant currency to €37.2 million. Yet Mexico's country-level Adjusted EBITDA fell 15% from a year ago to €1.7 million, and its active players dropped 3% to 85,600.
- Group gaming taxes: €13.6 million, up 3.2 percentage points of Gaming Win to 20.3% after Mexico's excise tax hike
- Group marketing spend: €25.2 million, up 37% from a year ago and up 1.9 percentage points of Gaming Win to 37.6%
- Customer acquisition cost: €209 per first-time depositor, up 25% from €167 a year ago
Those cost lines show why top-line growth did not reach the bottom line in the company's largest market. Higher Mexican betting duties took a bigger slice of every wager, while rival promotions pushed the cost of signing a new depositing player back above €200.
What to watch: Mexico country-level Adjusted EBITDA and active player counts in the fourth quarter. Another profit drop during the busy NFL betting season would show that taxes and customer acquisition costs are eating up Mexico's revenue gains.
Full-Year Plan Points to a Fourth-Quarter Drop
Arildsson kept the full-year outlook at €255–265 million for Gaming Win and €20–25 million for Adjusted EBITDA, even after Gaming Win grew 30% in the third quarter. He noted that "against a strong fourth quarter last year, we expect growth in the coming months to be more in line with our underlying trends".
With €201.0 million of Gaming Win already booked in the first nine months, the middle of the full-year range leaves €59.0 million for the fourth quarter by our math. That implies a 2.8% decline from the €60.7 million booked in last year's fourth quarter, and even the €265 million top of the range implies only 5.4% growth. Total active players also fell for a second straight quarter, down 6,200 from the second quarter to 166,800.
What to watch: whether fourth-quarter Gaming Win lands near the €59 million implied middle of the range or beats the €64 million top end. A finish near the middle would confirm that growth stalled once the World Cup ended.
Spain Growth Slowed as Active Players Slipped
Spain is the company's most profitable market, generating €7.2 million of country-level Adjusted EBITDA this quarter, up 24% from a year ago. Over the prior three quarters, Spanish Gaming Win growth had sped up from 7% to 16% and then 25%.
In the third quarter, that pace cooled to 12.7%, with Gaming Win of €24.8 million. Average monthly active players in Spain slipped for a second consecutive quarter, falling from 59,000 in the first quarter and 54,400 in the second to 52,800, just 5% above a year ago.
What to watch: Spain's active player count and Gaming Win growth in the fourth quarter. A rebound above 55,000 players during the European soccer season would show the third-quarter dip was just summer seasonality.
Cash Builds While Buybacks and M&A Wait
Codere Online's cash balance is both a balance-sheet strength and a capital-allocation risk after executives shifted focus from share buybacks toward Latin American acquisitions earlier this year. Total cash reached €65.6 million at the end of September, with €61.0 million available after setting aside €4.6 million for customer balances, and no financial debt.
Despite holding an active $7.5 million buyback authorization that expires on December 31, 2026, the operator bought back zero shares for a third consecutive quarter. The release also announced no license acquisitions or new market entries, leaving the growing cash pile idle.
What to watch: any renewal of the share buyback plan before its December 31 expiration or an announced acquisition. Letting the authorization expire unused would signal that cash is reserved for expansion deals.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Several standing accounting, governance and player-retention concerns remain open or could not be checked from the earnings release and presentation.
- World Cup player retention: executives promised third-quarter retention details on the 40,000 customers signed during the tournament, which are not in the release and await the conference call.
- Stock compensation and warrant swings: nine-month employee stock-plan expense reached €7.6 million (47% of Adjusted EBITDA by our math), while third-quarter net income of €5.5 million relied on a €3.4 million non-cash warrant gain.
- Long-term margin timetable and filing controls: management gave no target date for lowering marketing spend to its steady-state ratio, and annual audit controls are only tested at year-end.
👓 Other Themes
Codere Signed a Multi-Year NFL Deal in Mexico
On September 10, the operator signed a multi-year deal to become the Official Betting Partner of the National Football League in Mexico. The agreement covers the November 22 game in Mexico City and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027, which Sher said "further strengthens our positioning in one of our most important markets" while Arildsson noted the group is "continuing to invest behind growth".
Net Gaming Revenue Renamed to Gaming Win
Starting this quarter, the company renamed its primary operating metric from Net Gaming Revenue to Gaming Win. The measure still tracks total customer bets minus prizes and promotional credits before gaming taxes, and all historical figures and full-year outlook ranges remain identical.
💲 Other KPIs
New depositing players rose 7.1% from 85,000 a year ago, slowing from the 37% World Cup jump in the second quarter when 108,000 players made a first deposit. The group registered 251,000 new accounts in the quarter and converted 36% of them into paying customers, down from 38% last quarter.
Cash generated after capital spending was €3.0 million in the third quarter, down from €6.9 million in the second quarter and €6.5 million in the first as working capital used €0.4 million. Over the first nine months, free cash flow reached €16.4 million, up 42.6% from €11.5 million a year earlier by our math.
Net working capital — short-term operating assets minus short-term operating liabilities — stood at negative €24.5 million, or -9% of trailing twelve-month Gaming Win, nearly unchanged from -€25.0 million in June. The negative balance comes from €23.0 million in unpaid supplier bills and €11.1 million in customer account balances, which fund day-to-day operations.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year plan still calls for 16% growth at the €260 million middle of the range after a €20 million raise last quarter. By our math, that leaves €54–64 million for the fourth quarter, or €59.0 million in the middle — down 2.8% from €60.7 million a year ago as World Cup and currency tailwinds fade against a tough comparison.
Unchanged. The outlook still points to €22.5 million at the middle of the range, up 63% from €13.8 million in 2025 after a €5 million raise three months ago. By our math, the €16.1 million booked in the first nine months leaves €6.4 million for the fourth quarter at the middle, down 4.5% from €6.7 million a year ago.
❓ Key Questions
How many of the 40,000 World Cup players stayed active?
Executives promised on last quarter's call to share retention and player-value data in the third quarter for the 40,000 customers acquired during the World Cup. The release did not include those figures, and total active players fell by 6,200 from the second quarter.
Why did Mexico profit fall 15% when revenue jumped 39%?
Mexico Gaming Win rose €10.4 million from a year ago, yet its country-level Adjusted EBITDA shrank from €2.0 million to €1.7 million. Investors need to know how much of that €10.7 million cost increase came from the higher Mexican gaming tax versus heavier marketing.
Will the $7.5 million buyback authorization expire unused in December?
Available cash climbed to €61.0 million with no debt, yet the company has not bought back a share in all of 2026. With the current authorization expiring on December 31, management has not said whether it is holding the cash for a specific acquisition.
What drove Acquisition Cost back up 25% to €209?
The average direct marketing cost to sign a first-time depositor rose from €167 a year ago to €209, while total marketing rose 37% to €25.2 million. Management has not separated how much of that increase came from new NFL sponsorship spending versus rival promotions.