Coeur (CDE) Q3 2026 earnings review
Coeur cash reserves pass $1 billion, but production targets drop
Coeur Mining, a North American gold, silver and copper producer, saw its newly acquired mines lift revenue while weather and equipment breakdowns held back output. Total sales rose 77% from a year ago to $984 million, or 13% at the five mines owned a year ago by our math, but lower metal prices and rain delays cut free cash flow from last quarter. Chief executive Mitchell J. Krebs guided full-year production to the bottom of the company's ranges and trimmed the full-year cash flow target to over $1.3 billion.
| Sales from the five mines owned a year ago | $629.0M +13.4% from a year ago (total revenue +77%) |
|---|---|
| Free cash flow | $240.2M +27.3% from a year ago (−38% from last quarter) |
| Full-year production outlook | Low end 630k oz gold, 18.7M oz silver, 40M lbs copper |
| Full-year cash flow outlook | Cut ~$200M free cash flow >$1.3B (was ~$1.5B) |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because operational setbacks forced Coeur to aim for the floor of its production plan one quarter after cutting it, pushing unit costs to the top of its ranges. Even to hit those lowered floors, fourth-quarter gold output must rise 29% and copper 73% from the third quarter by our math. On the bright side, both acquired Canadian mines reached their targeted daily underground mining rates by quarter-end, and the non-cash stockpile accounting drag at Rainy River shrank by $101 million.
The question now is whether the steep fourth-quarter production jump arrives or slips into 2027. Optimists point to record crushed ore on Rochester's leach pads and New Afton's repaired conveyor, while skeptics note that sulfide ore is slowing Rochester's silver recovery and four mines sit above their annual unit-cost ranges. Fourth-quarter production and unit costs will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Rainy River and New Afton Hit Target Rates
Coeur bought Canadian miner New Gold in March to add the Rainy River gold mine and the New Afton gold-copper mine, getting 70% of third-quarter sales from the US and Canada. After pushing back both ramp-up schedules last quarter, the company hit its daily mining targets in September.
New Afton suffered "lower-than-planned mining and milling rates as a result of a conveyor belt failure" in late August, which dropped copper output 12% from last quarter to 10.0 million pounds. Management repaired the belt by mid-September and sustained its target of 16,000 tonnes per day, while Rainy River underground mining averaged 3,400 tonnes per day and reached its 5,000-tonne target ahead of its year-end goal.
Reaching these daily rates matters because the fourth-quarter production jump depends on processing higher-grade underground ore at both Canadian sites. What to watch: fourth-quarter tonnes milled at New Afton, where a reading above 1.4 million tonnes would prove the mine sustained the 16,000-tonne daily rate for a full quarter.
Cash Pile and Insurance Settlement Fund Buybacks
Coeur is using cash from its seven mines to build its balance sheet and buy back shares, although critics note the company is repurchasing stock above the price at which it issued shares for New Gold. Cash and equivalents rose by $120.4 million this quarter to $1.17 billion, leaving $471.1 million of cash above total debt by our math.
The company spent $110.8 million on share buybacks in the third quarter, or 46% of its $240.2 million in free cash flow, and declared a second $0.02 dividend. It also settled an insurance claim for last November's crusher fire at the Wharf mine in South Dakota, which will bring $70 million of cash in the fourth quarter, while $50 million of exploration drilling extended New Afton's K-Zone deposit by over 300 meters.
What to watch: fourth-quarter share repurchases and year-end cash, as collecting the $70 million insurance payout will show whether Coeur accelerates buybacks.
Inventory Accounting Drag Faded at Rainy River
When Coeur bought Rainy River, accounting rules required it to mark up the value of ore stockpiles on the ground, creating a non-cash charge as the mill processes that ore. Management said last quarter that the remaining short-term stockpile would run out in the third quarter.
That accounting charge fell from $141 million in the second quarter to $40 million, or $0.03 per share, in the third quarter. Because the charge shrank, the company's unit cost applicable to sales (CAS, the direct cost of mining and processing an ounce) for gold fell 16% from last quarter to $2,054 per ounce, and to $1,809 per ounce excluding the accounting charge by our math.
What to watch: Rainy River's fourth-quarter unit cost per gold ounce, which should drop below $2,200 once the $694-per-ounce stockpile accounting charge disappears.
🐻 Bear Case
Production Now Aims for the Bottom of the Plan
"The Company continued generating strong financial and operational results from its recently expanded portfolio of seven North American operations despite lower prices and several short-term operational challenges encountered during the quarter," chief executive Mitchell J. Krebs said. Yet third-quarter gold production fell 1% from last quarter to 161,400 ounces, missing the 185,000-to-245,000-ounce second-half quarterly pace implied by the outlook.
Heavy rain disrupted open-pit mining at Rainy River and delayed backfill materials at Palmarejo in Mexico, so Coeur now targets full-year output of 630,000 ounces of gold, 18.7 million ounces of silver and 40.0 million pounds of copper, "which represent the low end of the Company’s guidance ranges".
- Gold needed in the fourth quarter: 208,653 ounces by our math, up 29% from the third quarter
- Silver needed in the fourth quarter: 5.68 million ounces by our math, up 35% from the third quarter
- Copper needed in the fourth quarter: 17.3 million pounds by our math, up 73% from the third quarter
- Gold output from the five mines owned a year ago: 95,246 ounces, down 14.5% from a year ago by our math
Even after dropping the target to the floor of each range, Coeur needs a steep fourth-quarter rebound across all three metals at once. What to watch: full-year consolidated gold and copper production in the fourth-quarter release, which will show whether the mines cleared the lowered bar.
Sulfide Ore Slows the Rochester Silver Recovery
Rochester, Coeur's open-pit mine in Nevada that extracts metal by dripping solution through crushed ore on leach pads, was supposed to drive a second-half silver rebound. Management left Rochester's full-year silver plan unchanged at 6.4 million to 7.8 million ounces.
Rochester crushed a record 6.8 million tonnes of ore in the third quarter and lifted gold production 39% from last quarter to 16,211 ounces. However, silver output rose less than 1% to 1.23 million ounces "due to blending of ore to manage sulfide levels and slower than expected recovery rates on newly placed ore".
With 3.85 million ounces of silver produced in the first nine months, Rochester must produce 2.55 million ounces in the fourth quarter by our math—more than double its third-quarter output—just to reach the bottom of its annual range. What to watch: fourth-quarter silver production at Rochester, where anything below 2.55 million ounces means the mine missed its annual floor again.
Unit Costs Sit at the Top of the Range
Because production is tracking to the bottom of the full-year ranges, Coeur now expects unit costs applicable to sales at the upper end of its full-year ranges. Across the company, direct mining costs rose 2.8 percentage points of revenue from a year ago to 47.6% by our math, while mine amortization jumped 13.4 points to 26.6% of revenue, cutting operating margin by 14.2 points to 17.7%.
- Kensington gold unit cost: $2,304 per ounce in Q3, against a full-year outlook of $1,750 to $1,950
- Palmarejo silver unit cost: $28.71 per ounce in Q3, against a full-year outlook of $21.50 to $23.50
- Rochester silver unit cost: $26.48 per ounce in Q3, against a full-year outlook of $23.00 to $25.00
- New Afton copper unit cost: $2.67 per pound in Q3, against a full-year outlook of $2.00 to $2.30
Four mines are running above the top of their unchanged annual cost ranges after nine months, so hitting the plan requires a sharp fourth-quarter cost drop. What to watch: full-year unit costs at Kensington and Palmarejo next quarter to see if they breach the top of their ranges.
Lower Metal Prices Cut Full-Year Cash Targets
Coeur does not hedge its metal sales, leaving cash flow exposed to market prices and Mexican tax payments, which made up most of the $51.1 million in cash taxes paid this quarter. In the third quarter, Coeur's average realized gold price fell 4% from last quarter to $3,979 per ounce, and its silver price dropped 13% to $62.22 per ounce.
Combined with lower sales volumes and $50 million of working-capital outflows for interest and insurance, lower prices cut free cash flow 38% from last quarter to $240.2 million. Krebs now expects full-year performance "including record adjusted EBITDA of over $2 billion and free cash flow exceeding $1.3 billion at current prices", down from about $2.3 billion and $1.5 billion last quarter.
What to watch: fourth-quarter realized silver prices against the company's $55-per-ounce planning assumption, as further price drops would reduce cash available for buybacks.
💲 Other KPIs
Total ore on leach pads—crushed rock stacked and irrigated with solution to extract gold and silver over coming quarters—rose 9.0% from last quarter and 45.7% from year-end 2025 by our math. Record crushing at Rochester keeps building this inventory ahead of metal recovery, tying up $19.2 million of working capital in the third quarter.
Weighted average diluted shares fell 0.6% from last quarter as buybacks took effect, but remain 59.5% higher than a year ago because Coeur issued 392.7 million shares in March to buy New Gold. The higher share count, alongside a $64.9 million tax expense versus a $96.9 million tax benefit a year ago, lowered earnings per share from $0.41 to $0.11.
Capital spending rose 15.7% from last quarter and nearly tripled from $49.0 million a year ago, reaching 14.8% of revenue by our math. Sustaining projects took 84% of the spend, led by $61.5 million at Rainy River for underground development and tailings dam work, which reduced quarterly free cash flow.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged range, but guided to the bottom. The table keeps the range at 630,000 to 750,000 ounces, while management now targets approximately 630,000 ounces, up 50.3% from 2025. By our math, hitting 630,000 ounces requires 208,653 ounces in the fourth quarter, a 29.3% jump from the third quarter, while the 690,000-ounce middle of the range would require 268,653 ounces.
Unchanged range, but guided to the bottom. Coeur targets roughly 18.7 million ounces, or 4.3% growth from 2025. By our math, reaching the 18.68-million-ounce floor leaves 5.68 million ounces for the fourth quarter, up 35.2% from the third quarter after silver output slipped in the third quarter on lower grades at Palmarejo and slower recoveries at Rochester.
Unchanged range, but guided to the bottom. Management targets 40.0 million pounds from New Afton across nine months of ownership. By our math, after producing 22.7 million pounds through September, New Afton must produce 17.3 million pounds in the fourth quarter, up 73.0% from the third quarter following its August conveyor outage.
Cut. The full-year target for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding one-offs, dropped for a second straight quarter: from over $3.0 billion in the first quarter to about $2.3 billion in the second, and now to over $2.0 billion on lower silver prices ($55 assumed vs $60 prior) and lower production. By our math, $2.0 billion leaves at least $598.8 million for the fourth quarter, up 33.7% from the third quarter.
Cut. Management lowered its full-year free cash flow target for a second time, from over $2.0 billion in the first quarter to about $1.5 billion in the second, and now to over $1.3 billion. By our math, after generating $894.5 million in the first nine months, the plan requires at least $405.5 million in the fourth quarter, up 68.8% from the third quarter.
Unchanged. The company kept its sustaining capital plan at $360 million to $405 million and said total capital spending is trending toward the low end. With roughly $290 million spent on sustaining projects in the first nine months by our math, fourth-quarter sustaining spend should step down to about $70 million to $115 million.
Unchanged. The development capital outlook stays at $160 million to $200 million, trending toward the $160 million floor. After spending about $55 million through September across the mines and the Silvertip study, reaching the low end implies roughly $105 million in the fourth quarter.
Unchanged. Expensed expansion drilling remains at $118 million to $132 million, trending toward the bottom of the range. After $102.8 million in the first nine months, fourth-quarter exploration expense will slow to between $15.2 million and $29.2 million by our math as summer drilling programs wrap up.
Unchanged. Capitalized infill drilling holds at $29 million to $37 million, trending toward the low end. With $23 million spent in the first three quarters ($6 million in Q1, $10 million in Q2 and $7 million in Q3), fourth-quarter spend will run about $6 million to $14 million.
Unchanged. Overhead costs remain guided at $90 million to $100 million, trending toward the $90 million low end. After $66.0 million in the first nine months, fourth-quarter overhead implied by the floor is $24.0 million, up slightly from $21.6 million in the third quarter.
Unchanged. Cash tax payments stay at $350 million to $450 million and trend toward the $350 million floor. Because Coeur paid $289.5 million in the first nine months, reaching the floor leaves about $60.5 million for the fourth quarter by our math, up from $51.1 million in the third quarter.
Unchanged. Non-cash mine amortization remains at $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, trending toward $1.1 billion. However, nine-month amortization is only $617.0 million ($261.2 million in Q3), so even the $1.1 billion floor implies $483.0 million in the fourth quarter by our math, nearly double the third-quarter run rate.
Unchanged. The normalized effective tax rate stays at 34% to 38%, excluding currency swings on deferred taxes. In the third quarter, the GAAP effective tax rate was 37.3% ($64.9 million tax expense on $174.3 million pre-tax income), sitting inside the full-year range.
❓ Key Questions
How can Rochester double its silver output in Q4?
Rochester produced 1.23 million ounces of silver in the third quarter due to sulfide ore blending and slower leach recoveries. Reaching the 6.4-million-ounce annual floor requires 2.55 million ounces in the fourth quarter—what recovery rate on the leach pads makes that possible?
Will four mines breach their full-year unit cost ranges?
Third-quarter unit costs at Kensington ($2,304/oz gold), Palmarejo ($28.71/oz silver), Rochester ($26.48/oz silver) and New Afton ($2.67/lb copper) all sat well above their unchanged annual ranges. Why did management keep those cost ranges unchanged rather than raising them?
Why does the amortization floor imply $483M in Q4?
Nine-month amortization totaled $617 million, with the third quarter at $261 million, yet the full-year outlook stays at $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. Will fourth-quarter amortization jump to $483 million on a purchase-accounting adjustment, or is the annual range roughly $200 million too high?
What is Rainy River's underground grade and stockpile status?
Rainy River reached 5,000 tonnes per day underground in the third quarter while processing lower-grade open-pit stockpiles during heavy rains. How much acquired stockpile remains for the fourth quarter, and what were the separate underground and open-pit grades?