B2Gold (BTG) Q3 2026 earnings review
B2Gold's cash flow doubles, but its mining costs jump
B2Gold generated much more operating cash after finishing its discounted prepaid gold deliveries, even as gold output fell. The Canadian gold miner sold every ounce at market prices this quarter, lifting its average realized gold price 37% from a year ago to $4,289 per ounce and more than doubling operating cash flow before working-capital moves to $387 million. Gold production dropped 24% on waste-rock stripping in Mali, and by our math the unchanged full-year outlook requires Goose output to more than double in the fourth quarter.
| Gold revenue excluding prepaid deliveries | +31% from a year ago by our math (headline +6.8%) |
|---|---|
| Operating cash flow before working capital | $387M $94M in Q2 and $184M a year ago |
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $0.14 $0.14 a year ago (GAAP $0.31) |
| Full-year all-in sustaining cost outlook | Cut $140/oz middle of the range: $2,320 per ounce sold |
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 Bullish
The story got better because the end of prepaid deliveries turned higher gold prices into real cash flow while three mines beat their cost budgets, allowing a $140 per ounce cut to the full-year all-in sustaining cost plan. Mali also granted the Menankoto permit in August, clearing pre-stripping for early 2027 ore and triggering a $253 million asset write-down reversal. Two cautions remain: third-quarter unit mining costs still rose 76% from a year ago, and B2Gold slowed share buybacks to $33 million while drawing $95 million on its credit line.
The question now is whether the Goose mine can hit its steep fourth-quarter production target and handle a planned 10-week crusher shutdown in the first half of 2027. Optimists point to the fixed crusher reaching 3,200 tonnes per day in late October, while skeptics note that hitting the full-year midpoint requires 89,261 ounces from Goose in a single quarter. Fourth-quarter production results and the 2027 outlook will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Ending Prepaid Deliveries Lifted Cash Flow
In January 2024, B2Gold took $500 million upfront in exchange for delivering 264,768 ounces of gold between July 2025 and June 2026 at about $2,191 per ounce. The Canadian gold miner finished those deliveries in June, and the third quarter was the first period "reflecting the first quarter post completion of the prepaid gold sales contracts in June 2026", the company said.
- Average realized gold price: $4,289 per ounce, up 37% from a year ago and 14% from the second quarter
- Gold revenue excluding prior-year prepaid deliveries: up 31% from a year ago by our math, vs 6.8% headline revenue growth
- Operating cash flow before working-capital moves: $387 million, up from $94 million in the second quarter and $184 million a year ago
- Free cash flow: $48 million inflow, compared with an $84 million outflow a year ago
Selling every ounce at market prices mattered because it allowed higher gold prices to reach the cash flow statement despite a 22% drop in ounces sold. One cash drag remains: gold price collars — contracts that cap the price B2Gold receives at $3,294 per ounce on a portion of output — cost $47 million in cash this quarter, and 66,548 ounces remain through January 2027.
What to watch: operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2027, after the last 16,637 ounces of gold collars settle in January. That quarter will show the miner's full cash generation at spot gold prices.
B2Gold Cut Its Full-Year Cost Outlook
All-in sustaining costs (AISC) measure the total cost to mine an ounce of gold, including royalties and capital spent to keep mines running. B2Gold lowered its full-year consolidated AISC outlook to $2,230–$2,410 per ounce sold, down $140 per ounce at the middle of the range from its prior plan, "to reflect strong year-to-date operating performance and expected results for the fourth quarter of 2026", the company said.
- Fekola AISC outlook: cut by $320 per ounce to $2,350–$2,500 per ounce sold
- Masbate AISC outlook: cut by $180 per ounce to $1,250–$1,400 per ounce sold
- Otjikoto AISC outlook: cut by $200 per ounce to $1,630–$1,780 per ounce sold
- Nine-month consolidated AISC: $2,267 per ounce sold, near the bottom of the new full-year range
The cut matters because three of the four mines are running below their initial cost budgets, offsetting fire repair bills at the Goose mine in Canada. By our math, the new full-year midpoint still implies fourth-quarter AISC of about $2,511 per ounce sold.
What to watch: fourth-quarter consolidated AISC against that $2,511 per ounce figure implied by the outlook. A lower reading would mean the miner set its fourth-quarter cost plan with extra cushion.
Mali Permit Cleared the Way for 2027 Ore
Fekola Regional is a set of nearby deposits in Mali, including the Menankoto area, that B2Gold plans to truck to its main Fekola mill. After Mali granted the Menankoto exploitation permit on August 7, 2026, the miner concluded that "significant uncertainty had been removed with respect to the expected timing of the production" and started clearing waste rock in October.
Receiving the permit triggered a $253 million pre-tax reversal ($212 million after deferred taxes) of asset write-downs recorded in 2023 and 2024 under Mali's new mining code, lifting reported net income to $409 million. The company spent $16 million on Fekola Regional capital in the third quarter ($61 million over nine months) and said "ore production from Fekola Regional is expected to commence in early 2027".
What to watch: completion of the Fekola Regional tolling agreement with Mali and the 2027 production outlook in the fourth-quarter report. Those disclosures will show how many ounces the new permit adds next year.
🐻 Bear Case
Goose Needs a Big Fourth Quarter
The Goose mine in Nunavut, Canada is B2Gold's newest operation and main growth project, where an April 2026 fire damaged the rock-crushing circuit. The miner kept its full-year Goose outlook at 170,000–200,000 ounces and said it remains "on track to deliver full-year production guidance at all operations".
- Third-quarter Goose production: 39,973 ounces, up from 12,890 ounces in the fire-hit second quarter
- Nine-month Goose production: 95,739 ounces
- Fourth-quarter Goose production implied by the full-year outlook: 74,261 to 104,261 ounces (89,261 ounces at the middle of the range) by our math
- Crushing rate at the end of October: 3,200 tonnes per day after Phase 1 upgrades
Hitting the full-year midpoint requires fourth-quarter Goose production to more than double from the third quarter, because the plant processed only 180,000 tonnes (~1,957 tonnes per day) in the third quarter while running on a mobile crusher. Management noted the fixed crusher is now "operating at an average of 3,200 tpd at the end of October 2026", but also disclosed that Phase 2 upgrades in the first half of 2027 will leave the fixed crusher "down for up to 10 weeks while upgrades are completed".
What to watch: fourth-quarter Goose ore milled and gold output against the 74,261-ounce bottom of the implied range. A shortfall would mark another missed target at Goose ahead of next year's 10-week crusher shutdown.
Mining Costs Rose Despite the Outlook Cut
While B2Gold lowered its full-year cost forecast, actual unit mining costs in the third quarter jumped to their highest level of the year. Gross margin fell 6.1 percentage points from a year ago to 43.8% because production costs — the direct expense of mining and processing ore — rose 6.5 percentage points of revenue to 31.4%.
- Consolidated cash operating costs: $1,335 per ounce produced, up 71% from $780 a year ago
- Consolidated AISC: $2,602 per ounce sold, up 76% from $1,479 a year ago
- Fekola cash operating costs: $1,444 per ounce produced, up 87% as mill feed grade fell from 1.94 to 1.16 grams per tonne
- Goose AISC: $4,816 per ounce sold on $69 million of sustaining capital, plus $6 million of crusher suspension costs excluded from unit cost metrics
Higher gold prices hid this cost inflation in revenue, but profit per share excluding one-offs stayed at $0.14, unchanged from a year ago despite a $1,156 per ounce jump in the gold price. At Fekola, stripping waste rock for Phase 8 pushed the waste-to-ore strip ratio to 22.2 from 9.6 a year ago, cutting Fekola output 47% to 78,156 ounces.
What to watch: Fekola mill feed grade and Goose sustaining capital in the fourth quarter. If Fekola grade stays near 1.16 grams per tonne, unit mining costs will remain elevated into 2027.
Share Buybacks Slowed and Credit Was Drawn
B2Gold expanded its share buyback programme in April 2026 to allow repurchasing up to 10% of its shares and stated that "Returning capital to shareholders remains a foundational element of the Company's capital allocation philosophy". However, cash spent on buybacks dropped by almost two-thirds in the third quarter even as operating cash flow turned positive.
The miner bought back $33 million of shares in cash during the third quarter (6 million shares), down from $92 million in the second quarter and $80 million in the first quarter. In the same quarter, the company drew $95 million on its revolving credit facility, paid $103 million in cash taxes, and lost $47 million settling gold collars, leaving cash at $294 million.
What to watch: fourth-quarter share repurchases and revolving credit facility repayments. With about $231 million in cash taxes implied for the fourth quarter by our math, borrowing more to fund buybacks would strain the balance sheet.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Two standing concerns about B2Gold's operations in Mali and its 2027 production profile received no new forward numbers in the third-quarter report.
- Mali tax and state share on Fekola Regional: Mali holds a 35% stake in Fekola Regional (versus 20% in the main Fekola mine) and charges a new windfall profit tax ($9 million in Q3, $25 million over nine months); the fourth-quarter report's 2027 cost guidance will show the cash margin impact.
- Fekola 2027 production during Phase 8 waste stripping: the third-quarter filing gave no 2027 output numbers for the main Fekola pit; the 2027 production outlook in the fourth-quarter report will settle whether Fekola grows next year.
💲 Other KPIs
Both working-capital balances grew faster than revenue this year. Total current and long-term inventories rose 13.8% from year-end 2025 to $915.5 million as Goose stocked up on supplies for future years. Long-term value-added tax receivables — tax refunds owed mainly by the government of Mali — rose 19.4% from year-end to $329.6 million ($288 million in Mali), tying up $132 million of operating cash flow in the third quarter.
Capital spending on mines fell 26.5% from $259.5 million a year ago (and took 22.8% of revenue vs 33.1% a year ago) because main construction at the Goose mine finished in late 2025. Third-quarter spending went mainly to Goose ($80.0 million, including crusher repairs and a mobile crusher), Fekola ($48.7 million) and Fekola Regional ($16.2 million).
The diluted share count edged down 0.2% from 1,482 million a year ago and 0.7% from 1,490 million in the second quarter. Repurchasing and cancelling 41.5 million common shares over the first nine months reduced the basic share count, while 145.0 million shares tied to the $460 million convertible notes issued in January 2025 remained in the diluted count.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year plan calls for a 11.2% drop in gold output from 2025 at the middle of the range. With 634,732 ounces produced in the first nine months, the outlook leaves 185,268 to 285,268 ounces for the fourth quarter (235,268 ounces at the middle, up 21.7% from the third quarter by our math).
Unchanged. After cutting this range by 30,000 ounces at the midpoint last quarter due to Menankoto permit delays, B2Gold held the target. With 311,887 ounces produced through September, the plan leaves 78,113 to 108,113 ounces for the fourth quarter (93,113 ounces at the midpoint by our math, up from 78,156 ounces in Q3).
Unchanged. The miner lowered the top end of this target from 230,000 ounces last quarter following the April crusher fire. With 95,739 ounces produced in the first nine months, hitting the range requires 74,261 to 104,261 ounces in the fourth quarter (89,261 ounces at the midpoint by our math, more than double Q3's 39,973 ounces).
Unchanged. Both mines had their full-year targets raised by 10,000 ounces last quarter and remain on pace. By our math, the middle of each range leaves 33,053 ounces for Masbate in the fourth quarter (after 156,947 ounces in nine months) and 20,033 ounces for Otjikoto (after 69,967 ounces in nine months).
Unchanged. The company held its consolidated cash operating cost range, while lowering Masbate's range by $100 per ounce to $800–$900 and holding Fekola ($1,060–$1,160), Goose ($1,610–$1,810) and Otjikoto ($1,200–$1,300). With nine-month costs at $1,168 per ounce, the consolidated midpoint implies about $1,351 per ounce in the fourth quarter by our math.
Cut (cost reduction). B2Gold lowered the consolidated AISC range by $140 per ounce at the midpoint — its second reduction after a $30 cut in Q2. Fekola ($2,350–$2,500), Masbate ($1,250–$1,400) and Otjikoto ($1,630–$1,780) were all reduced, while Goose ($2,670–$2,970) was held near the high end. By our math, the new midpoint implies $2,511 per ounce in Q4.
Lowered. Assuming a $4,000 per ounce gold price in the fourth quarter, B2Gold expects full-year cash tax payments of about $630 million (including $154 million of withholding taxes on dividends from mine subsidiaries), down from $690 million estimated at a $5,000 gold price in Q1. With $399 million paid in nine months, that leaves $231 million for Q4 by our math.
❓ Key Questions
How will the 10-week Goose shutdown affect 2027 output?
B2Gold plans to shut down the fixed crusher at Goose for up to 10 weeks in the first half of 2027 to reach 4,000 tonnes per day. Investors need to know what 2027 production and cost targets that shutdown leaves.
What are the terms of the Mali tolling agreement?
Pre-stripping has started at Menankoto, but B2Gold still must finalize a tolling agreement to process Fekola Regional ore at the main Fekola mill. The fee structure and tax rate will determine how much cash those ounces generate.
Will Fekola Complex production grow or shrink in 2027?
Fekola mill feed grade dropped to 1.16 grams per tonne in the third quarter during Phase 8 waste stripping. Management has not yet said whether early 2027 Menankoto ore will fully offset Phase 8 stripping across the full year.
When will Mali refund the $288 million of VAT?
Long-term value-added tax receivables in Mali rose another $44 million over the first nine months of 2026 to $288 million. Collecting that balance is a major test of whether the 2023 mining code settlement normalized cash recovery.