Barclays (BCS) Q3 2026 earnings review

Lending grew 6.6% from a year ago, the fastest rate of the last four quarters, and 2.2% in the quarter alone. UK mortgages and corporate loans drove it, with investment bank lending adding to the total. Larger balances feed interest income, which is one reason the full-year interest income floor looks easy to clear.

Deposits rose 4.2% from a year ago, led by corporate clients of the investment bank. Loans grew faster, so the group's loan-to-deposit ratio moved up to 76% from 74% a year ago. Deposits matter because the structural hedge, the main driver of interest income, is built on the stable part of them.

Tangible net asset value per share, the book value of each share after removing goodwill, ended at 410p, up 4.6% from a year ago. It fell from June's level because a weaker cash-flow hedge reserve and payouts to shareholders together outweighed the quarter's profit.

Unchanged. The target means income growth of about 8% for the year, Cross said. By our math it leaves about £7.6 billion for the fourth quarter, 8% above a year earlier. This quarter grew only 3%, so the plan needs a stronger finish, mostly from the investment bank. The target has moved twice this year: up £1 billion in April, up £500 million in July, and now held.

Unchanged. Barclays earned £10.25 billion in the first nine months. By our math the floor needs only about £3.45 billion in the fourth quarter, slightly below this quarter's level. A floor the bank can clear with a flat quarter says little; the record this year is two raises.

Unchanged. The middle of the range leaves about £2.14 billion for the fourth quarter by our math, 3% above this quarter. Cross said an increase in the hedge in early October will lower the product margin but lift hedge income, with "no material net effect". Mortgage margin pressure eased this quarter, as she had indicated in July.

Unchanged. Nine months at 13.8% put the year above the target unless the fourth quarter falls below about 7%, by our math. That quarter carries the UK bank levy and more restructuring charges. So the year will land below the nine-month figure but above the target; Venkatakrishnan said he is "very confident in achieving the Group RoTE target of greater than 12% this year".

Unchanged ratio, with a cost number restored. Barclays now says total costs will be about £18.5 billion this year, a 59% cost-to-income ratio against the income target by our math. That leaves about £4.9 billion of expenses for the fourth quarter, given the restructuring charges and the annual bank levy. Cross put underlying costs at about £18.0 billion.

Unchanged. The loan loss rate is credit charges as a share of loans. It was 43 basis points this quarter and 55 for the nine months, so the year sits inside the range. Cross expects a higher fourth quarter. The Barclays UK rate "should normalise towards circa 30 basis points in Q4" after a one-off debt sale, and US card reserves build seasonally.

Unchanged total, different mix. The hit still totals £19 to 26 billion of risk-weighted assets, with more from the January rules and less from the US model change. Pillar 2A, a regulator add-on, is the new element. It falls 59 basis points, so the level at which payouts become restricted drops to 11.6%. Barclays will say in February where inside the range it plans to operate.

Unchanged, and already met. Cross said Barclays has announced £10.7 billion since the plan began, including the £2 billion dividend planned for this year, "even before any Q4 buyback". Distributions announced this year total £2.8 billion, with a buyback every quarter.

New. For the first time Barclays gives next year's cost base: about £18.4 billion, half a percent below this year's target by our math. Cross expects "run the bank costs to be flat or lower in 2027 versus '26", which funds £0.4 billion of extra investment. Barclays UK should run at a cost-to-income ratio in the high 40s, with the mid 40s pencilled in for 2028.

Unchanged. The last twelve months returned 12.4%, so the target needs about two more percentage points by 2028. Venkatakrishnan said "multi-year investments in our businesses are delivering consistent returns and growth". A lower capital requirement could help, if Barclays chooses to run with less equity.

Unchanged. The plan covers dividends and buybacks over three years and, the release says, "provides capacity for additional investment and growth". Capital generation runs at about 200 basis points of the ratio a year, Cross said, and she expects more in 2028.

Unchanged. This year's growth of about 8% sits above the target, Cross said, so later years can run slower and still meet it. By our math, reaching £31.5 billion this year means income only needs about 3.5% a year thereafter to hit the compound rate.

Unchanged. From the high 50s this year, Cross promised "meaningful progress next year towards the low-50s cost income ratio target in 2028". With costs set at £18.4 billion for next year, the ratio depends on income. Income of £33 billion would give 56% by our math, so 2028 also needs income growth.

Unchanged. The through-the-cycle range is the same one this year runs at the top of. Cross said "borrowers are behaving rationally", and the group rate of 43 basis points this quarter sits below the range.

Unchanged. The investment bank holds 56% of risk-weighted assets today, so reaching the 2028 target means UK lending must keep growing faster than trading books. The regulatory changes add roughly 5 to 7% to risk-weighted assets along the way, by our math, which the Pillar 2A relief partly offsets.