Credicorp (BAP) Q3 2026 earnings review
Credicorp lends more, but El Niño raises its credit costs
Credicorp, Peru's leading banking group, is lending faster while it braces for floods that could hurt borrowers. Loans grew 15% from a year ago, and profit climbed 11%. Chief executive Gianfranco Ferrari said El Niño, a Pacific warming that brings heavy rain, now looks stronger. So the group set aside more money for bad loans. By our math, the lending plan leaves room for only about 1% growth in the fourth quarter.
| Loans, at constant exchange rates | +15.2% reported: +14.8% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Net profit | S/1,929.4M +11.0% from a year ago |
| Loan-loss provisions as a share of loans | 2.0% 1.7% a year ago |
| Full-year return on equity outlook | Unchanged about 19.5%; 20.4% so far this year |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged, because faster lending and a worse El Niño outlook pull in opposite directions. Fees and the Yape payments app keep adding income. One caution: Credicorp kept its full-year profit targets and ruled out an extra dividend this year, preferring to use capital for growth.
The question now is how much El Niño will cost. Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde said extra provisions will fit inside the full-year range; a stronger event could push losses into 2027. The fourth-quarter provision charge will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Loans Grow 15% as Peru's Economy Picks Up
For years Credicorp's lending barely moved. Chief executive Gianfranco Ferrari said “our loan book has been flattish over the last 5 years”, because bad retail loans and weak private investment held it back. Now Peru's economy is busier, and the banking group is lending again.
In the third quarter, loans at quarter-end rose 15% from a year ago. Consumer lending at BCP, its main bank, did the most work, and loans to very small firms followed.
- Consumer loans at BCP: up 32.9% from a year ago
- Loans to very small firms (SME-Pyme) at BCP: up 17.7%
- Mibanco, its lender to small businesses: loans up 18.7%
- Net interest income: up 17.7%
- Net interest margin, loan yields minus funding costs: 6.93%, from 6.57%
This matters because the new loans carry higher rates, so interest income climbs faster than the book itself. Cheap deposits helped too. But finance chief Ignacio Belaunde said the group does not “assume that we are going to grow mid-teens every single year”.
What to watch: year-end loans in the fourth-quarter results, set against the plan of about 12% growth for 2026. A figure well above the plan would show that caution about El Niño has not held back demand.
Yape Earns Almost a Tenth of Group Revenue
Yape is Credicorp's mobile payments app, used by 17 million people each month. The group wants it to earn money from loans and fees, though it publishes no separate Yape profit figure for outsiders to check.
This quarter Yape's revenue after credit losses rose 77% from a year ago, while its costs climbed 39%. Loans made through the app did much of the work.
- Share of group revenue after credit losses: 9.8%, from 6.4%
- Monthly revenue per active user: 11.9 soles, against 6.1 soles of cost
- Lending: 31% of Yape revenue, from 20%
That matters because user growth is slowing, so income per user must carry the next step. Chief executive Gianfranco Ferrari said “the number of Yaperos is not going to grow at a faster pace”.
What to watch: a Yape profit figure at the November 17 strategy event. A positive number would show that revenue running ahead of costs turns into profit.
Fee Income Grows 20%, Ahead of the Plan
Credicorp earns fees on card payments, transfers and new loans. Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde expects “high-teens growth” in fee income this year, helped by heavy use of cards and of Yape, its payments app.
Fees rose 20.4% from a year ago in the third quarter, the quickest pace in more than a year. Card spending during the World Cup in July lifted payment fees at BCP, its main bank. This matters because fees do not depend on interest rates, so they steady income when credit costs move.
- Payment and transaction fees at BCP: up 27.8%
- Yape fees at BCP: up 39.8%
- Loan disbursement fees at BCP: up 21.6%
What to watch: fourth-quarter fee growth, without World Cup spending. A rate near 20% would show that the lift comes from everyday use of cards and Yape, not from one tournament.
Positives this quarter didn't test
Two standing strengths in Credicorp's case got no decisive reading this quarter. The group plans to give more detail at its strategy event on November 17, so both stay where they were until then.
- Return on equity of about 22% in the medium term: reaffirmed, while the quarter delivered 19.9%; the first outlook for 2027 will test it.
- Peru's investment cycle: private investment kept growing at double-digit rates, but chief risk officer César Ríos expects El Niño to cut about 1 point from 2027 growth.
🐻 Bear Case
El Niño Raises Credicorp's Loan-Loss Charges
El Niño is a warming of the Pacific that brings heavy rain to Peru's northern and central coast. By the group's estimate, about 8% of Credicorp's loans go to clients directly exposed to it. Chief executive Gianfranco Ferrari said the bank moved its quarter-end base case to a “Very Strong” event.
So the group booked about 400 million soles of new El Niño provisions, chief risk officer César Ríos said. It also released about 200 million soles set aside for risks that did not materialise.
- Provisions, net of recoveries: up 37.4% from a year ago
- Cost of risk, provisions as a share of loans: 2.0%, from 1.7%
- Cost of risk without the one-off releases: about 2.5% by our math
- Reserves against bad loans: 120.9% of those loans, from 110.1%
Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde called the underlying cost of risk “healthy at 1.6%”. But that figure strips out both the charge and the releases, which Ríos described as “special releases for specific, very particular situations”. He expects more El Niño provisions in the fourth quarter.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter cost of risk in the year-end results. A reading that pushes the full year to the 2.1% top of the range would mean El Niño has used up all the room in the plan.
Faster Growth Comes From Riskier Borrowers
Credicorp is shifting lending toward consumers and very small firms, which pay higher rates but default more often. Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde said “we anticipate that cost of risk could go up in the following years” as that mix grows.
For now the ratios look good, because fast growth adds loans that have not had time to go bad. Yet at BCP, its main bank, bad retail loans rose this quarter in digital pilot programmes that sought “greater penetration into higher-risk segments”.
- Consumer bad-loan ratio at BCP: 4.1%, from 5.8% a year ago
- Bad-loan ratio for very small firms (SME-Pyme): 9.8%, from 12.7%
What to watch: bad-loan ratios at BCP once loan growth cools in 2027. A rise then would show that the new borrowers cost more than the rates they pay.
No Extra Dividend as Lending Uses Up Capital
Banks must hold core capital, mostly retained profit, against the risk in their loans. Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde said “we do not expect to declare an extraordinary dividend this year”, because the group sees good uses for capital in lending.
- Core capital at BCP, its main bank: 11.92% of risk-weighted assets, from 13.17%
- Core capital at Mibanco, its small-business lender: 15.14%, against a 15% internal floor
- Group regulatory capital: 123% of the requirement, from 134%
The ratios fell because risk-weighted assets at BCP grew 14%, ahead of retained profit. Mibanco now sits just above its floor, so capital rather than demand may set its pace in 2027.
What to watch: BCP's core capital ratio at year-end, after fourth-quarter profit. A reading near its 11% internal floor would force a choice between lending and payouts.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Four standing risks got no clear new numbers in these results. Each one moves only when Credicorp discloses the item named below, and some answers may come at the November 17 strategy event.
- Tax dispute with SUNAT, Peru's tax agency: the group still carries the 1.57 billion soles it paid as a claim asset; a ruling would settle it.
- Payments interoperability, which links rival wallets: the group expects TAPP, its next stage, from 2027 and calls it an opportunity; fee data after launch will test that.
- Bolivia: BCP Bolivia loans fell 18.5% from last quarter and its bad-loan ratio reached 4.5%; year-end results will show whether the drop continues.
- Helm Bank USA: the US$180 million purchase still awaits US approval, and the group has given no new detail.
👓 Other Themes
A New Finance Chief Presents the Results
Ignacio Belaunde presented the third-quarter results as chief financial officer, a role Alejandro Pérez-Reyes held on the previous call. Neither the release nor the call explains the change. Chief executive Gianfranco Ferrari also invited investors to a “Strategic Update” on November 17, where the group plans to set out its next phase of growth.
💲 Other KPIs
Demand and savings deposits, which pay little or no interest, slipped to 73.2% of deposits from 74.4% in June. A temporary corporate deposit booked at the end of June flowed out, and savers moved some cash into time deposits. The share still sits above the 70.4% of a year ago, so funding stays cheap.
Profit from insurance policies fell 6.7% from a year ago, because Pacífico, the insurance arm, released reserves on old disability claims a year earlier. Without that disability line, the result rose about 12% by our math. The decline was narrower than the 18% drop in the second quarter.
Costs rose 14.0% from a year ago, slower than the 17.2% gain in operating income. Spending on the innovation portfolio, Yape and the group's other digital ventures, climbed 32.2%. Because income grew faster, the quarter's efficiency ratio, costs as a share of income, improved to 45.1% from 46.4%.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The plan still calls for a return on equity, profit as a share of shareholders' money, of about 19.5% for 2026. By our math, with 20.4% earned in nine months, that leaves about 16.8% for the fourth quarter. The quarterly return has eased all year, from 21.1% to 19.9%.
Unchanged. Credicorp still aims for a return of about 22% in the medium term. Chief executive Gianfranco Ferrari called El Niño a “bump in the road” on the way there. Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde said lending may not keep this year's pace in 2027.
Unchanged. The outlook still calls for about 12% loan growth this year. By our math, loans already grew 10.8% in nine months, which leaves about 1.1% for the fourth quarter. That means roughly 1.8 billion soles of new loans, against 6.7 billion in the third quarter. The target moved once this year, up from 8.5% after the first quarter.
Unchanged. The plan keeps provisions at 1.7% to 2.1% of loans for the year, El Niño included. By our math, with 1.7% so far, the fourth quarter could reach about 3.3% and still fit. Finance chief Ignacio Belaunde expects the year to stay in range “despite a likely increase in the last quarter”.
Unchanged, though already passed. The margin, loan yields minus funding costs, reached 6.79% in nine months. By our math, the fourth quarter would have to drop to about 6.43% for the year to end at the top. Management expects the higher end of the range.
Unchanged, though already passed. The margin after loan-loss provisions stood at 5.71% for nine months. By our math, only a fourth-quarter figure near 5.27% would bring the year back to the top of the range, which would take a large El Niño charge.
Unchanged. Costs should take 45.0% to 46.5% of income this year, and nine months came in at 45.4%. Fourth quarters cost more: the ratio hit 49.0% in late 2025. Even a repeat would leave the year near 46.3% by our math, inside the range.
Unchanged. The forecast calls for fee growth in the high teens this year. Nine months delivered 17.4%. By our math, a 17% year needs only about 16% growth in the fourth quarter, below the third quarter's pace.
❓ Key Questions
How much El Niño provisioning remains for the fourth quarter?
Credicorp holds about 500 million soles against El Niño and plans more, but gave no figure. The full-year range allows a fourth-quarter charge of up to about 3.3% of loans by our math.
Will Credicorp publish a Yape profit figure on November 17?
Yape now brings almost a tenth of revenue after credit losses, yet the group shows only revenue and cost per user. A profit figure would show whether the app's growth adds to earnings.
Does the loan plan really assume almost no fourth-quarter growth?
Holding the target at about 12% leaves only about 1% growth for the last quarter by our math. Either the group expects El Niño to halt lending, or the plan is stale.
When will the SUNAT tax claim be resolved?
The group carries the 1.57 billion soles it paid to Peru's tax agency as an asset. A loss would cut equity and the capital that funds lending and dividends.
What does the Helm Bank USA purchase add?
BCP agreed to buy the US bank for US$180 million and still awaits US approval. The group has not explained how it fits with its other units abroad.