Barrick (B) Q3 2026 earnings review
Barrick meets its plan, but its profit per ounce shrinks
Barrick, the largest gold producer in the United States, met its production plan while each ounce earned it less. Gold output rose 3% from last quarter, and chief executive Mark Hill kept the full-year outlook. But the price Barrick received slipped 4% while its all-in cost per ounce climbed 2%.
| Gold produced | 816,000 oz +3% from last quarter; −2% from a year ago, +6% excluding mines sold in 2025 |
|---|---|
| Profit per share, excluding one-offs | $0.82 $0.82 last quarter; $0.58 a year ago |
| Gold price received minus all-in cost, per ounce | $2,332 $2,551 last quarter, by our math |
| Full-year outlook | Unchanged gold 2.90–3.25 million oz; copper costs now seen at or above the top of their range |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because costs keep climbing and the gold price has stopped helping. By our math, profit on each ounce shrank 9% from last quarter, a second straight decline. Copper costs, the miner now says, will end at or above the top of its range. The good news: the mines produced to plan for a fourth quarter, despite storms and drought.
The question now is whether Barrick can hold its cost per ounce if gold stays near its current price. If royalties and diesel keep pushing costs up, profit per ounce keeps shrinking; if fourth-quarter output spreads fixed costs, it steadies. Full-year results early next year will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
Barrick Met Its Production Plan a Fourth Time
Chief executive Mark Hill has now run Barrick for a year. "For the fourth consecutive quarter, we improved safety, executed against our plans, strengthened Nevada Gold Mines, advanced our growth projects, and returned significant capital to shareholders," he said.
The output numbers back the part about plans. Gold production rose from last quarter, as Hill had flagged it would. The miner got there although winter storms cost Veladero in Argentina "17 days of downtime", according to Seb Bock, who runs its mines outside North America.
What to watch: fourth-quarter output, due with the full-year results early next year. Hill expects it slightly above this quarter. By our math that puts the year near 3.15 million ounces, which would mean his plans held through a full calendar year.
Shareholder Payouts Doubled to $3.2 Billion
Barrick pays a fixed quarterly dividend of 17.5 cents a share, plus a year-end top-up. A $3 billion share buyback, which the board approved in May, runs beside it.
This quarter the miner bought back $761 million of shares and paid $280 million in dividends. Payouts over nine months reached $3.2 billion, double last year's pace, Hill said.
More could follow, because Newmont has agreed to pay Barrick $1.95 billion under their Nevada deal. Finance chief Helen Cai said any payout from it is "pending our final board decision". One caution: this quarter's payouts exceeded the free cash flow that belongs to shareholders.
What to watch: the year-end dividend top-up, due with the full-year results. One that includes Newmont's cash would mean payouts keep their pace without draining Barrick's reserves.
Positives this quarter didn't test
Four parts of the positive case stayed on schedule this quarter. None of them produced a result yet, so each still waits for the reading named below.
- Lumwana copper expansion in Zambia: $795 million spent of a $2 billion budget; first copper at the end of Q1 2028 would confirm it.
- Pueblo Viejo expansion in the Dominican Republic: 99% of resettlement packages accepted; the dam permit filing in Q1 2027 comes next.
- Newmont agreement: the transfer of the Fourmile project into the Nevada venture should close in Q4; Barrick has yet to record the cash payment.
- Mali settlement: Barrick says the tax reconciliation is complete; a quarter with no new charge would confirm it.
🐻 Bear Case
Barrick Earns Less on Each Ounce
Barrick's profit depends on the gap between the gold price and its all-in sustaining cost. That cost covers mining an ounce plus the upkeep of the mines. Output is about level this year, so the gap decides the result.
That gap narrowed for a second straight quarter, because the price Barrick received slipped while its cost per ounce kept climbing.
- Gold price received: $4,243 an ounce, down 4% from last quarter
- All-in sustaining cost: $1,911 an ounce, up 24% from a year ago
- Gap between the two: $2,332, against $3,115 in the first quarter, by our math
- Royalties: 4.7% of revenue, 1.4 percentage points above a year ago, by our math
Royalties explain part of it, because they rise with the metal price; Barrick puts the effect at about $60 an ounce. Diesel, Nevada tariffs and weaker ore grades added the rest, the company said. Free cash flow attributable to shareholders fell 44% as spending on mines and projects grew.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter all-in cost, due with the full-year results early next year. A figure still near $1,900 an ounce would mean the gap keeps narrowing into 2027.
Copper Costs Run Above Barrick's Own Range
Barrick's range for C1 cash cost this year is $2.20 to $2.45. C1 is the direct cost of producing a pound of copper. The press release said the copper cost outlook "remains unchanged".
The quarterly filing differs: the miner now expects those costs "at or slightly above the top end of the ranges". Cash cost reached $2.76 this quarter and averaged $2.60 over nine months. Diesel and a stronger Zambian currency drove it. Site operating costs took 36% of copper sales, 5 percentage points above a year ago, by our math.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter cash cost. By our math, even the top of the range needs about $1.98 a pound, below any quarter this year. A higher figure would mean the 2027 plan starts from a costlier base.
Without Mali, Barrick Mined 7% Less Gold
Barrick said gold output rose 6% from a year ago, excluding two mines it sold in 2025. One place supplied all of it. Loulo-Gounkoto, its mine complex in Mali, produced 102,000 ounces after a dispute with the government kept it idle a year ago.
- All other mines: 714,000 ounces, against 770,000, by our math
- Nevada mines: 400,000 ounces, against 402,000
- Mali charges for back royalties and penalties: $316 million this year
This matters because the growth sits where the fiscal risk sits. Barrick booked another $106 million of Mali charges this quarter and leaves them out of profit excluding one-offs.
What to watch: 2027 output outside Mali. The miner's plan also counts on Cortez, Kibali, North Mara and Phoenix; a gain there would mean growth stops resting on one mine.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Five standing concerns got partial readings or none this quarter. Two North American dates moved later, and one safety measure worsened while another improved.
- North American listing: now the fourth quarter or early 2027; Hill said it "may slide into January". Barrick has yet to name a chief for the parent.
- Fourmile project in Nevada: studies now finish in 2029, a year later; this month's listing filing should bring more detail.
- Safety: lost-time injuries rose to eight from six; a lower count next quarter would ease it.
- Reko Diq project in Pakistan: the security review continues; Hill expects an update by mid-2027.
- Pueblo Viejo recovery: 75% of the gold in the ore, against a long-term aim in the low-to-mid 80s; a new processing line would lift it.
👓 Other Themes
Drilling Found High-Grade Gold Beside Goldrush
Barrick drilled a corridor called North Crow, between its Goldrush mine and the Rose deposit in Nevada. One hole cut 58.7 metres of rock grading 24.4 grams of gold per tonne. Hill called Nevada Gold Mines, the venture Barrick runs with Newmont, "underexplored" and said drilling there will set a record this year. No resource estimate or mine plan includes the find yet.
Oil Averaged $86 Against a $70 Budget
Barrick built its 2026 cost ranges on oil at $70 a barrel. The market averaged $86 over nine months, the miner said. Each $10 adds about $12 to the cost of an ounce of gold, by its own estimate, because its open pits burn diesel. Storms in Argentina, drought in Papua New Guinea and power cuts in Tanzania also left three mines near the bottom of their planned output.
💲 Other KPIs
Held at 60% for a second quarter, after 66% in the first quarter when gold fetched more. The measure sets Barrick's share of operating profit before depreciation against its share of sales. It stood at 59% a year ago, so a gold price 23% higher added almost nothing to the margin once costs rose.
Down 3.6% from a year ago and 1.5% from last quarter, as buybacks retire shares. Fewer shares helped profit per share excluding one-offs hold at $0.82. Total profit on that basis slipped 1% from last quarter.
Up 37% from a year ago. Barrick drilled more at Fourmile and at Nevada Gold Mines and paid higher permitting costs in Congo. Spending over nine months reached $376 million, against $228 million a year earlier. The total runs through the income statement, so it lowers reported profit now.
Shrinking by 25,000 ounces a month until August 2028. The collars are option contracts that put a floor and a ceiling on the selling price; the ceiling is $4,310 an ounce. They cost Barrick $3 million of revenue this quarter and $63 million over nine months.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The middle of the range sits 5.5% below last year's output. By our math, it needs only 744,000 ounces in Q4, 15% below a year ago. That will not happen if Hill is right. He expects Q4 slightly above this quarter's 816,000 ounces, which puts the year near 3.15 million. Barrick has held this range since February.
Unchanged. Cost of sales is the accounting cost of each ounce sold, depreciation included. It averaged $1,956 over nine months, inside the range. This quarter came in 2% below the last one. The range assumes gold at $4,500 an ounce, close to the $4,486 Barrick has received this year.
Unchanged. Total cash cost is the cash Barrick spends to mine and process each ounce. It averaged $1,381 over nine months, below the middle of the range. This quarter's $1,386 fell 3% from last quarter, because royalties eased with the gold price and fewer plants shut for maintenance.
Unchanged. All-in sustaining cost adds upkeep spending on the mines to the cash cost. It averaged $1,831 over nine months. By our math, the middle of the range allows about $1,925 in Q4 if Barrick sells as many ounces as this quarter. Upkeep spending rose 50% from a year ago, and the quarterly figure has climbed three times running.
Unchanged. Nine-month output of 155,000 tonnes leaves 50,000 for Q4 at the middle of the range, by our math, the same as this quarter. Barrick had told investors output would step up in the second half. It then moved a planned mill maintenance stop at its Lumwana mine into September, which pushed high-grade ore into October.
Range unchanged, but Barrick now expects to finish at or slightly above the top. Cost of sales is the accounting cost of each pound sold, depreciation included. It averaged $3.48 over nine months and reached $3.65 this quarter. By our math, the top of the range needs about $2.96 in Q4 if Barrick sells as many pounds as this quarter.
Range unchanged, but Barrick now expects to finish at or slightly above the top. C1 cash cost, the direct cost of producing a pound, averaged $2.60 over nine months. By our math, the middle of the range needs about $1.47 in Q4 and the top about $1.98. No quarter this year came in below $2.47.
Range unchanged, but Barrick now expects to finish at or slightly above the top. All-in sustaining cost, which adds royalties and mine upkeep to the cash cost, averaged $4.05 over nine months. That is 8% above the top. Barrick's own sensitivities to oil and the copper price explain about 9 cents of the 30-cent gap, by our math. Upkeep spending at Lumwana and a stronger Zambian currency explain more.
Unchanged since Barrick cut it last quarter, when it slowed the Reko Diq project in Pakistan. Spending reached $2.89 billion over nine months. By our math, the middle of the range leaves $1.11 billion for Q4, close to this quarter's $1.16 billion. The Lumwana expansion should end the year at the low end of its own budget, the miner said.
Unchanged. The outlook has output about 13% above this year's, by our math, comparing the middles of the two ranges. Barrick expects Cortez, Loulo-Gounkoto, Kibali, North Mara and Phoenix to supply the gain. Hill told analysts not to project this year's finish onto 2027. A formal plan comes with the full-year results.
❓ Key Questions
How much of the copper cost overrun is Lumwana's own?
Barrick's stated sensitivities to oil and the copper price explain about 9 cents of a 30-cent gap, by our math. The rest decides whether costs fall when the expansion starts in 2028.
What did Newmont's $1.95 billion pay for, piece by piece?
The payment covers a share of Fourmile, two Newmont properties and settled disputes. Without the split, investors cannot value Fourmile, the main growth asset in the planned North American listing.
Why do Mali charges continue after the reconciliation closed?
Barrick paid $200 million in April and received a $48 million notice in July. Yet it booked a further charge this quarter. The year's total of $316 million exceeds both, so what remains unpaid?
What will an ounce of gold cost in 2027?
Hill said budgets are still in progress. Royalties, diesel and local currencies lifted the all-in cost 24% in a year, and the 2027 output plan adds higher-cost Mali ounces.
How far will the Reko Diq budget rise?
Barrick warned the Pakistan project's cost and timeline could increase significantly from the earlier $5.6–6.0 billion first-phase estimate. It has already capitalized about $1.5 billion on the project.