Barrick Mining (B) Q4 2025 earnings review
Record Cash Flow Quarter Caps a Year of Gold-Fueled Financial Records
Barrick delivered its best quarter ever on nearly every financial metric, riding a 20% sequential increase in gold prices to $4,135/oz. Q4 revenue of $6.0B jumped 45% sequentially and operating cash flow hit $2.73B. Adjusted EPS of $1.04 was up 79% QoQ, while net EPS of $1.43 included large acquisition/disposition gains. However, gold production fell 17% YoY to 3.26 Moz for the full year, and 2026 gold guidance of 2.90–3.25 Moz points to roughly flat output after adjusting for asset sales. The Board approved a 140% dividend increase to $0.42/sh (new policy targets 50% of attributable FCF) but discontinued the share buyback program. The biggest strategic move: preparations for an IPO of Barrick's North American gold assets, targeting late 2026.
🐂 Bull Case
The gap between realized gold price ($4,177/oz) and AISC ($1,581/oz) widened to $2,596/oz in Q4—the largest margin in Barrick's history. Every $100/oz change in gold price impacts consolidated EBITDA by ~$650M. With gold near $4,100+, Barrick is a cash generation machine.
Management believes Nevada Gold Mines + Pueblo Viejo + Fourmile are substantially undervalued within the conglomerate. A separate listing targeting late 2026 could force a market re-rating of these Tier 1 assets. Barrick will retain a controlling interest and continue to benefit financially.
After 2025's 17% gold production decline (mostly from the Mali disruption and divestitures), the three-year outlook shows a clear ramp: 2.90–3.25 Moz in 2026, 3.30–3.65 Moz in 2027, and 3.40–3.75 Moz in 2028. Copper production is set to surge to 255–285kt by 2028 with the Lumwana expansion.
🐻 Bear Case
Full year 2025 gold output fell 17% to 3.26 Moz, and 2026 guidance midpoint of 3.08 Moz implies further contraction on a like-for-like basis. The Loulo-Gounkoto ramp-up and NGM recovery are yet to be proven. If gold prices correct, earnings would fall sharply from record levels.
Gold AISC rose 10% YoY to $1,637/oz in 2025, and 2026 guidance of $1,760–$1,950/oz implies a further 8–19% increase. Higher royalties (driven by gold prices), tariffs, consumables, and the Loulo restart costs are all contributing. The cost trajectory is clearly accelerating.
Following an increase in security incidents in Baluchistan, the Board has paused project financing for Reko Diq and initiated a comprehensive review. This $5.6–$6.0B project is a cornerstone of Barrick's copper growth strategy. Any delay or cancellation would materially reduce the long-term production outlook.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. Record financial performance is undeniable—$3.87B of free cash flow and $2.39B returned to shareholders in 2025. The North America IPO is a potential re-rating catalyst. But investors must look past the gold-price-flattered numbers: production is declining, costs are rising, and two key growth catalysts (Loulo ramp-up and Reko Diq) carry meaningful execution risk.
Key Themes
North America IPO: The Value Unlock Play
The Board authorized preparations for an IPO of 'NewCo' holding Nevada Gold Mines (61.5% JV), Pueblo Viejo (60%), and the 100%-owned Fourmile discovery. Targeting late 2026 completion. Management indicated a minority stake (10–15% range) would be offered. Barrick will retain controlling interest. The strategic rationale: North American gold assets are 'substantially undervalued' within the conglomerate. Key uncertainty: Newmont's JV rights in Nevada must be navigated, plus the IPO is subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals.
Gold Costs Accelerating Despite Flat-to-Lower Volume
Gold AISC has risen for four consecutive quarters from $1,451/oz in 24Q4 to $1,581/oz in 25Q4. Full-year AISC of $1,637/oz was above the original guidance range of $1,460–$1,560/oz. The 2026 guidance midpoint of $1,855/oz implies another 13% increase—driven primarily by higher royalties on elevated gold prices ($4,500/oz assumption), plus tariffs and consumable inflation. This eats into the margin expansion gold prices should deliver.
Mali Resolution: Loulo-Gounkoto Back in Barrick's Hands
After months of dispute, detained employee release, and deconsolidation losses, Barrick regained control of Loulo-Gounkoto on December 16, 2025. All three underground mines have restarted, with the open pit expected to ramp up in H2 2026. The 2026 guidance of 200–290koz represents a significant ramp from the near-zero production during the suspension. The relationship with Mali's government has been 'reset' with 'positive' engagement so far. However, the asset required a settlement payment ($559M in 'other expense adjustments' in Q4 primarily from this), and the political risk premium remains. Africa & Middle East COS spiked to $2,527/oz in Q4 due to restart costs.
Fourmile: Doubling Resources for the Second Consecutive Year
Barrick's 100%-owned Fourmile project doubled its gold resource again: indicated resources now stand at 2.6 Moz at 17.59 g/t (from 1.4 Moz at 11.76 g/t a year ago), and inferred resources doubled to 13 Moz at 16.9 g/t (from 6.4 Moz at 14.1 g/t). The grades are exceptional—more than double those at neighboring Goldrush. Drilling spend will increase to $150–$160M in 2026 from $91M in 2025. The Bullion Hill Decline is on track to begin development in Q4 2026, enabling underground resource conversion. Fourmile is slated to be contributed to Nevada Gold Mines JV at fair market value and will be included in the proposed NewCo IPO.
Reko Diq Review Amid Security Escalation
The Board flagged escalating security incidents in Baluchistan and asked management to conduct a full review of all aspects of the Reko Diq project before closing the financing. On the call, management said 'it's too early to say' if divestiture is possible, but 'all options' weren't ruled out. This is a $5.6–$6.0B Phase 1 project (100% basis) that was expected to deliver first copper-gold production by late 2028 and generate an estimated $74B in FCF over its 36-year mine life. Any significant delay would undermine Barrick's 30%+ production growth target by decade-end.
Pueblo Viejo Recovery Rate Disappointment, But Life Extended
Management acknowledged PV recoveries 'are not where we expected them to be.' The original feasibility study targeted 90% recovery, but actual performance is around 75–76%, with a revised long-term target of 84%. The issue: metallurgical inconsistency across 90M tonnes of weathered stockpiles. Despite the recovery shortfall, throughput rose to record highs and total ounces over life of mine are maintained by extending the mine to 2048. An updated 43-101 technical report with revised recovery assumptions is due end of February 2026.
New Dividend Policy Replaces Buybacks
Barrick's Board introduced a new framework targeting 50% payout of attributable free cash flow, combining a fixed quarterly base dividend of $0.175/sh (up 40% from $0.125) with a year-end performance top-up. The Q4 dividend of $0.42/sh represents a 140% increase over Q3 and includes a $0.245 top-up. Critically, the Board did not renew the share buyback program, a significant strategic shift. In 2025, Barrick returned $2.39B to shareholders ($1.5B buybacks + $890M dividends). Going forward, cash returns will be entirely through dividends.
Nevada Gold Production Declining, Restructured Under New Leadership
North America gold production was 2,093 koz in 2025 vs 2,145 koz in 2024, and 2026 regional guidance of 1,770–1,980 koz implies further contraction—particularly at Carlin, where lower open pit grades and mine sequencing are headwinds. Management completed an operational review, admitted to past 'top-down' target-setting, and restructured leadership: Tim Cribb now leads North America, and mine plans have been rebuilt 'from the bottom up' using actual productivities. January performance was strong (best 60 days at Carlin since JV formation), but the direction of travel in production volume is still down before Fourmile and Gold Rush can lift output in later years.
Four Workplace Fatalities in 2025
Despite improved safety metrics overall (TRIFR down 24%, LTIFR down 31%, total recordable injuries down 21%), four employees lost their lives in 2025, including one at Kibali in December. CEO Mark Hill stated safety is 'the company's number one focus for 2026.' While lagging indicators improved, the fatality count is a serious issue that exposes operational risk and could attract regulatory scrutiny.
Lumwana Super Pit Expansion Tracking Ahead of Schedule
Lumwana achieved record annual copper production of 220kt in 2025 (up 13% YoY) while self-funding $254M of the Super Pit expansion. The expansion—which will approximately double production to 240kt/yr with a 30+ year mine life—is slightly ahead of schedule, with the mill building civil works progressing. C1 cash costs of $2.14/lb for FY2025 were 5% lower YoY. The 2028 copper outlook of 255–285kt reflects the ramp-up contribution.
CFO Transition and Executive Restructuring
Graham Shuttleworth, who oversaw Barrick's balance sheet turnaround and record financial performance over seven years, delivered his final earnings call. Helen Cai joins as CFO on March 1. Additionally, Tim Cribb moved from Reko Diq to lead North America operations, and Megan Tibbals was appointed Chief Technical Officer. The pace of leadership change—combined with the North America IPO preparation—introduces organizational transition risk during a critical execution period.
Other KPIs
Up 194% from $1.32B in 2024 and up 499% from $646M in 2023. Accelerating. The surge was driven by operating cash flow growth (+71% to $7.69B) outpacing capital expenditure growth (+20% to $3.82B consolidated). Attributable FCF was $2.84B, enabling $2.39B in shareholder returns while increasing the cash balance by $2.6B. The 2025 FCF margin (FCF/Revenue) improved to 23% from 10% in 2024.
Up 57% from $5.19B in 2024. EBITDA margin expanded from 48% to 58% for the full year, reaching 64% in Q4. The improvement was driven almost entirely by gold price leverage: gold revenue increased 28% YoY despite a 13% decline in gold ounces sold. Copper contributed $1.12B of attributable EBITDA, more than doubling from $518M in 2024.
Up 133% from $2.14B ($1.22/sh) in 2024. The figure includes $1.11B in acquisition/disposition gains (Donlin, Hemlo, Tongon, Alturas sales, Loulo-Gounkoto revaluation) and $823M in other expense adjustments (Mali settlement, inventory fair value). Adjusted net earnings of $4.14B ($2.42/sh) grew 87% YoY, providing a cleaner view of operating performance.
A dramatic reversal from $655M net debt at end of 2024. Cash rose 65% to $6.71B while debt stayed flat at $4.70B. The improvement came from strong operating cash flow ($7.69B), $2.6B in non-core asset sale proceeds (Donlin, Hemlo, Tongon, Alturas), partially offset by $3.82B CapEx, $1.5B buybacks, and $890M dividends. Net leverage is -0.2x (negative, meaning net cash position).
Copper production increased 13% YoY to 220kt, in line with guidance. C1 cash costs declined 5% to $2.14/lb and AISC fell 7% to $3.20/lb—a positive cost trend despite Q4 spikes from maintenance and interim power costs at Lumwana. Revenue surged 48% to $2.20B, driven by both higher volume and a 14% increase in realized copper price to $4.72/lb.
Guidance
Stable. The midpoint of 3.075 Moz compares to 3.26 Moz actual in 2025, but adjusting for divested assets (Hemlo and Tongon contributed ~230koz), comparable 2025 production was ~3.03 Moz. So the guidance implies slight growth at midpoint. The Loulo-Gounkoto ramp-up is the main driver, with 200–290koz guided. Production will be back-half weighted (45%/55% H1/H2 split), with Gold Rush and Loulo scaling up later in the year. Carlin and Turquoise Ridge production expected 'marginally lower' due to open pit sequencing.
Accelerating costs. AISC midpoint of $1,855/oz is 13% above FY2025's $1,637/oz. The primary driver is the gold price assumption of $4,500/oz used for cost guidance, which inflates royalty costs substantially. The sensitivity table shows each $100/oz move in gold impacts AISC by ~$5/oz. At current spot prices near $4,100, actual costs could come in below the guided range.
Stable to slightly declining. The range matches 2025's actual 220kt at the top end. Production is expected to be lowest in Q1 and highest in Q2–Q3, driven by grade variability at Lumwana. C1 cash costs guided at $2.20–$2.45/lb (vs $2.14/lb in 2025) and AISC at $3.45–$3.75/lb (vs $3.20/lb), reflecting the copper price assumption of $5.50/lb driving higher royalties.
Accelerating. The multi-year outlook shows meaningful production growth driven by: Cortez, Loulo-Gounkoto, Kibali, North Mara and Phoenix delivering higher YoY output in 2027; NGM driving gold growth in 2028; and the Lumwana expansion driving the copper jump to 255–285kt in 2028. The 2028 gold midpoint of 3.58 Moz would represent 10% growth from 2025 comparable levels.
Decelerating. The midpoint of 1,875 koz compares to 2,093 koz in 2025, a ~10% decline. This reflects lower Carlin open pit grades and mine sequencing. However, costs are more favorable here than the group average, with AISC midpoint of $1,780/oz vs $1,855/oz group-wide.
Key Questions
Reko Diq: Timeline and Optionality
The Board has asked for a full project review amid security concerns. What are the specific criteria for a go/no-go decision? What is the timeline for concluding the review? And if the project is abandoned or delayed, what is the impact on your 2028+ production growth targets?
North America IPO: Valuation and Structure
You've stated the North American assets are 'substantially undervalued.' Can you quantify the value gap you see? What share of NewCo's economics will flow back to Barrick through its controlling stake, and how will you ensure minority shareholders of both entities are aligned?
Pueblo Viejo Recovery Downgrade
Recovery has been revised down from 90% to a target of 84%, with current actual performance at 75–76%. What specific capital projects are needed to bridge from 76% to 84%? What is the CapEx and timeline? And does the lower recovery rate impact the reserve base?
Buyback Cancellation Rationale
Barrick repurchased $1.5B of shares in 2025 when management stated the stock was 'very undervalued.' The stock presumably remains undervalued. Why discontinue buybacks now? Is this driven by capital needs for the growth pipeline, or by the new dividend framework?
2026 Cost Guidance and Gold Price Sensitivity
The $4,500/oz gold price assumption for 2026 costs is $350+ above current spot. If gold stays at ~$4,100, how would actual AISC compare to guidance? Can you provide a bridge showing how much of the $218/oz midpoint AISC increase is royalties vs inflation vs tariffs vs Loulo restart?