AngloGold Ashanti (AU) Q3 2026 earnings review
Gold prices lift AngloGold profit, but mining costs climb
Higher gold prices lifted AngloGold Ashanti's profit while mine stoppages cut output and pushed unit costs above its annual plan. Revenue rose 8% as a 21% jump in realized gold prices outweighed lower production from flooding in Ghana and a fatal rockfall in Egypt. Chief executive Alberto Calderon kept the full-year outlook unchanged, which by our math requires fourth-quarter all-in sustaining costs to drop 16% just to meet the top of the range.
| Gold production from mines owned a year ago | 696,000 oz -8% from a year ago (-9% total) |
|---|---|
| Average gold price received | $4,239/oz +21% from a year ago |
| All-in sustaining cost per ounce | $2,170/oz +26% from a year ago |
| Full-year production and cost outlook | Unchanged 2.80M–3.17M oz; AISC $1,780–$1,990/oz |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because booming gold prices and a $1.26 billion net cash pile offset a tough operating quarter. The company approved construction funding for its North Bullfrog mine in Nevada and mapped out expansions at three existing mines. One caution: nine-month unit costs sit above the full-year plan, and cash awaiting transfer out of the Congo nearly tripled to $163 million.
The question now is whether third-quarter cost inflation reverses as mine output recovers in the fourth quarter. Either higher fourth-quarter production dilutes fixed site costs back inside the annual plan, or royalties and contractor inflation lock in a higher cost base for 2027. Fourth-quarter production and unit cost figures in the full-year report will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Higher Gold Prices Lift Profit and Cash
Rising gold prices are carrying AngloGold Ashanti through a quarter of lower mine output. The gold miner sold its metal for an average of $4,239 an ounce, up 21% from a year ago, which lifted revenue 8.4% to $2,619 million and profit attributable to shareholders 17.6% to $787 million.
- EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation): up 12% from a year ago to $1,568 million
- Operating margin: up 2.9 percentage points by our math, as exploration and other expenses fell by 2.8 percentage points of revenue
- Net cash (cash minus debt): $1,256 million, up from $991 million in June and already above the $1 billion year-end target
- Quarterly dividend: 71 US cents per share, or $361 million, bringing the nine-month payout to $1,310 million
The cash buildup matters because it lets the group pay for mine expansions and shareholder dividends at the same time without borrowing. Even after paying $530 million in dividends during the quarter, net cash grew by $265 million.
What to watch: the fourth-quarter dividend true-up in February. Because net cash already sits $256 million above management's year-end target, a strong fourth quarter would leave extra cash for a supplemental payout or share buybacks.
Board Clears Nevada Mine and Expansion Plan
AngloGold Ashanti is turning its cash pile into multi-year production plans in the United States and across its older mines. On November 3, the board approved construction funding for the North Bullfrog project in Nevada, once federal and state permits arrive.
Alongside Nevada, the miner outlined a three-year plan to spend $750 million to $900 million expanding its existing Geita, Siguiri and Cuiabá mines. Those expansions are designed to "leverage existing infrastructure and operational footprints to reduce execution risk and optimise capital intensity", adding 300,000 to 450,000 ounces of yearly output by the end of the decade.
What to watch: receipt of federal and state permits for North Bullfrog and the Arthur Gold feasibility study schedule in 2027. Timely permits will confirm when the $320 million budgeted for North Bullfrog next year turns into gold production.
🐻 Bear Case
Mining Costs Run Above the Full-Year Plan
Unit costs rose sharply again, putting the company's full-year cost outlook under pressure. Total cash costs, the direct cost of mining and processing an ounce of gold, rose 25% from a year ago to $1,534 an ounce, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC), which add sustaining capital and site overhead, jumped 26% to $2,170 an ounce.
The miner attributed 61% of the cash cost increase to "exogenous, market-driven factors" such as price-linked royalties and fuel, and kept its full-year cost outlook unchanged. Yet cost of sales at managed mines rose from 50.7% of revenue to 50.2% only because gold prices jumped; in dollar terms, nine-month cash costs of $1,467 an ounce and AISC of $2,053 an ounce both sit above the top of the full-year outlook ranges ($1,430 and $1,990).
By our math, even if fourth-quarter output hits the middle of the full-year plan, cash costs must drop to $1,332 an ounce and AISC to $1,824 an ounce just to reach the top edge of the annual targets.
What to watch: fourth-quarter Group AISC per ounce in the full-year report. A reading above $1,824 an ounce will push full-year costs above the reaffirmed outlook range.
Stoppages and Flooding Cut Gold Output
"We are well positioned to deliver a strong final quarter to achieve our full-year gold production targets," chief executive Alberto Calderon said. That puts the weight of the year on the next three months, because third-quarter gold output fell 8% from businesses owned a year ago to 696,000 ounces (down 9% on a headline basis including the sold Serra Grande mine).
- Sukari (Egypt): down 21% to 107,000 ounces after a fatal August rockfall led to a 30-day underground stoppage
- Iduapriem (Ghana): down 43% to 34,000 ounces due to flooding from a neighbouring mine and plant repairs
- Obuasi (Ghana): down 26% to 51,000 ounces on shaft constraints and safety rules after an April fatality
- Siguiri (Guinea): up 49% to 58,000 ounces, lapping a 42-day plant shutdown a year ago
Calderon said dewatering at Iduapriem is complete and Obuasi recovered in October toward a 300,000-ounce yearly pace. By our math, the group needs 636,000 ounces in the fourth quarter to reach the bottom of its annual plan and 821,000 ounces — an 18% jump from the third quarter — to reach the middle.
What to watch: fourth-quarter production at Obuasi and Sukari. Obuasi needs about 75,000 ounces in the quarter to prove it has reached its 300,000-ounce annualised run rate.
African Cash and Export Rules Tighten
Three regulatory and capital return items in the release carry no financial hit yet but add friction to how AngloGold Ashanti moves and returns its cash.
- Congo cash backlog: attributable cash awaiting repatriation from the Kibali joint venture in the Democratic Republic of the Congo jumped to $163 million from $60 million in June.
- Guinea refining decree: an early October presidential decree took effect "requiring all raw gold to be refined domestically prior to export", affecting Siguiri.
- Share buyback: the South African Reserve Bank gave final approval for the $2.0 billion buyback programme on September 22, but the company gave no commitment to buy shares.
What to watch: the Congo cash balance and Siguiri gold sales vs production in the fourth-quarter report. A wider gap between gold produced and gold sold at Siguiri would show the Guinea decree is delaying exports.
💲 Other KPIs
Free cash flow — operating cash flow after joint-venture items minus capital spending at managed mines — fell 22% from $920 million a year ago and declined slightly from $727 million last quarter. Planned capital spending at managed mines jumped 45% to $497 million for Nevada and waste stripping, while net cash taxes rose from $75 million to $174 million.
Current trade, other receivables and other assets rose 48% from $411 million a year ago and 43% from $426 million at year-end, outpacing the 8.4% rise in quarterly revenue. The company noted that higher receivables and lower payables absorbed working capital during the quarter, which weighed on operating cash flow.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year plan still calls for about 2.99 million ounces at the middle of the range, down 3.4% from 2025. By our math, that leaves 821,000 ounces for the fourth quarter at the middle of the range, up 18% from the third quarter, though the miner needs only 636,000 ounces to reach the bottom of the range.
Unchanged. The company reaffirmed its cost ranges, which point to an 11% annual rise at the middle of the range. Nine-month cash costs sit at $1,467 an ounce because higher gold prices lifted royalty payments. By our math, fourth-quarter cash costs must fall to $1,332 an ounce at middle-of-the-range output just to meet the top of the plan.
Unchanged. The plan still calls for AISC to rise about 10% for the year at the middle of the range. Nine-month AISC is already $2,053 an ounce after $2,170 in the third quarter. By our math, reaching the $1,990 top end requires fourth-quarter AISC to drop 16% from the third quarter to $1,824 an ounce.
Unchanged. The full-year capital budget averages $1,900 million at the middle of the range across managed mines and joint ventures. After spending $1,579 million in the first nine months and $563 million in the third quarter alone, the middle of the plan leaves $321 million for the fourth quarter, a 43% drop from the third quarter by our math.
❓ Key Questions
How can full-year unit costs stay inside the outlook?
Nine-month cash costs ($1,467/oz) and AISC ($2,053/oz) both sit above the top of the full-year ranges ($1,430/oz and $1,990/oz), and gold prices remain high enough to keep royalty expenses elevated in the fourth quarter.
Will the Guinea refining decree delay Siguiri gold shipments?
Guinea required all raw gold to be refined in the country before export starting in early October. Siguiri produced 58,000 ounces in the third quarter, and investors need to know if local refining capacity exists.
Why did cash awaiting repatriation in the Congo nearly triple?
Attributable cash held at the Kibali joint venture in the Democratic Republic of the Congo rose from $60 million in June to $163 million in September, even though Kibali paid $61 million in dividends.
When will the company begin the $2 billion share buyback?
Shareholders approved the programme in July and the South African Reserve Bank gave final approval on September 22, while net cash of $1,256 million already exceeds management's $1 billion year-end target.