ASUR (ASR) Q3 2026 earnings review
ASUR revenue rises on acquisitions, but Mexican traffic falls
ASUR, the operator of Cancun and 35 other airports across the Americas, grew revenue by buying new concessions while traffic at its older hubs shrank. Total revenue jumped 19% from a year ago, but sales from businesses it owned a year ago rose 4% by our math as Mexican passenger numbers fell. Operating cash profit barely moved because higher costs and lower-margin acquisitions cut its Adjusted EBITDA margin by more than 6 percentage points.
| Sales from businesses owned a year ago | +4.1% headline revenue +18.9% to Ps. 10.42B |
|---|---|
| Total passenger traffic | -1.2% Mexico down 4.6%, Colombia up 5.2% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 60.3% 66.7% a year ago |
| Net debt to trailing EBITDA | 2.6x 0.2x a year ago |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because core Mexican international traffic dropped 12% and retail spending per passenger in Mexico fell 10%, even in the quarter when Cancun's expanded Terminal 1 was scheduled to relieve retail bottlenecks. At the same time, funding the US and Brazilian deals pushed net debt ten times higher than a year ago. One bright spot: passenger traffic and retail spending per traveler both accelerated in Colombia.
The question now is whether the newly acquired US retail platform and 20 Latin American airports can generate enough profit after interest costs to make up for fewer international tourists in Cancun. Either the new concessions expand cash flow once fully integrated, or heavy debt service and lower margins hold back earnings per share. The fourth-quarter results, the first with three full months of the Brazilian airports, will tell.
🐂 Bull Case
New Airports Carry Revenue Growth
ASUR, the operator of Cancun and 35 other airports across the Americas, bought its way to top-line growth this quarter. The company added "one full month of operations from the acquisition of CPC Aeroportos which operates 20 airports across Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Curazao" alongside its new US retail business. ASUR Airports, its US commercial platform, "partners with airports and airlines to deliver enhanced retail and passenger experiences" in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York.
- Total revenue: Ps. 10.42 billion, up 18.9% from a year ago
- Revenue excluding construction services: up 12.6% from a year ago
- Brazil and other new airports: Ps. 841.2 million in total revenue (Ps. 676.4 million excluding construction)
- US retail operations: Ps. 456.4 million in revenue
- Sales from businesses it owned a year ago: up 4.1% by our math
These deals matter because the Mexican airport group noted both units had "no comparable contribution in 3Q25". Without those two purchases, underlying sales grew 4.1% by our math, because traffic at legacy airports shrank 1.8%. The acquisitions give the operator a broader revenue base across the Americas while its core Mexican hubs lose passengers.
What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue from the 20 newly acquired Latin American airports when they contribute a full three months of operations. A strong full-quarter contribution would show the new concessions can carry top-line growth while Mexican traffic remains weak.
Colombia Traffic and Retail Spend Accelerate
Colombia was the only legacy region where passenger numbers and retail spending per traveler both rose. The company operates six airports in northern Colombia, including the international hub in Medellin. While travelers pulled back in Mexico and Puerto Rico, Colombian passenger traffic grew 5.2% from a year ago to 4.68 million, led by a 6.5% rise in domestic flights and a 1.0% gain in international routes.
More travelers and new store openings lifted commercial revenue per passenger in Colombia by 10.3% to Ps. 65.2, driving a 22.0% jump in total segment revenue to Ps. 1.17 billion. That growth helped cushion the drop in higher-spending Mexican tourists, though Colombian travelers still spend only half as much per person at the airport as passengers in Mexico or Puerto Rico.
What to watch: Colombian operating profit in the full third-quarter filing. Last year a permanent change in how the operator writes down its Colombian concession value drove expenses up 76%, so we need the full cost table to see how much of the 22.0% revenue gain reached the bottom line.
🐻 Bear Case
Mexico International Traffic and Retail Spending Fall
Mexico remains the foundation of the group, generating 64% of total revenue, and chief executive Adolfo Castro previously anticipated that Mexican traffic would stabilize this year and that reopening Cancun's expanded Terminal 1 in the third quarter of 2026 would fix retail bottlenecks. Instead, the decline in Mexican passenger traffic worsened from 1.0% a year ago to 4.6% this quarter, as an 11.8% drop in international travelers outweighed a 1.6% domestic gain.
Because international tourists spend far more in duty-free shops than domestic travelers, commercial revenue per passenger in Mexico fell 10.4% from a year ago to Ps. 129.1. That dragged down the Mexican retail average even though consolidated commercial revenue per passenger rose 3.5% to Ps. 130.5 on the inclusion of the new US airport malls. Total Mexican revenue edged up just 3.1% to Ps. 6.68 billion.
What to watch: commentary on the earnings call regarding whether Cancun's Terminal 1 expansion opened on schedule and when international traffic from the United States will stop falling. Continued double-digit declines in international arrivals would keep Mexican retail spending depressed through the winter travel season.
Profit Margins Fall as Costs Outpace Revenue
Bringing in retail concessions in the United States and 20 airports across Latin America boosted revenue, but almost none of that top-line expansion turned into operating cash profit. Revenue excluding construction services rose 12.6% from a year ago, yet consolidated EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—grew only 1.7% to Ps. 4.72 billion.
The company's operating margin excluding one-offs and construction services (Adjusted EBITDA margin) dropped 6.4 percentage points from a year ago to 60.3%, extending a steady decline from 70.0% in the first quarter of 2025. In the first half of 2026, operating expenses excluding construction rose from 39.0% of revenue to 45.4% due to minimum wage hikes in Mexico and new US retail costs, and mixing in lower-margin US and Brazilian operations compressed profitability further in the third quarter.
What to watch: the segment expense breakdown in the full third-quarter report. It will show how much of the 6.4 percentage point margin drop came from integrating the new Brazilian and US operations versus rising wages and maintenance costs at legacy Mexican airports.
Acquisitions Push Net Debt Ten Times Higher
For years the airport operator ran with almost no net debt, ending the third quarter of 2025 with net debt of Ps. 4.97 billion, or 0.2 times its trailing 12-month EBITDA. After paying out large dividends last year and borrowing to buy the US retail platform and CPC Aeroportos on September 1, net debt jumped tenfold to Ps. 49.88 billion.
By our math, net debt increased by Ps. 34.74 billion in the third quarter alone, and total debt reached Ps. 69.97 billion. That pushed net debt to 2.6 times trailing 12-month EBITDA, up from 0.8 times at the end of June. Higher borrowing costs already nearly tripled interest expense in the first half of the year, so servicing this debt will weigh on net income, which grew 4.4% to Ps. 2.31 billion.
What to watch: quarterly interest expense and refinancing terms after Cancun Airport recently placed senior notes due 2031 and 2036 to replace its short-term acquisition loans. Higher long-term interest rates would keep net income growth well below revenue growth.
Puerto Rico Traffic and Revenue Turn Negative
Throughout 2025, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico, helped offset falling passenger numbers in Mexico. That buffer disappeared in the first half of 2026 and worsened in the third quarter. San Juan passenger traffic fell 3.2% from a year ago to 3.25 million, as domestic travelers dropped 3.1% and international passengers fell 3.9%.
With fewer travelers passing through the terminal and a stronger Mexican peso reducing translated dollar figures, San Juan commercial revenue per passenger slipped 2.1% to Ps. 163.3, and total segment revenue fell 4.1% to Ps. 1.27 billion. Because Puerto Rico carries the highest retail spend per traveler in the group, a downturn there removes a vital source of high-margin revenue.
What to watch: fourth-quarter flight schedules into San Juan. A rebound in US mainland tourist arrivals during the holiday quarter would show whether the third-quarter drop was a temporary dip after last year's concert tourism boom.
👓 Other Themes
Strong Peso Weighs on Foreign Currency Revenue
Currency movements cut against the company's foreign operations this quarter. ASUR translated third-quarter US dollar results at Ps. 18.07 per dollar, stronger than the Ps. 20.4 rate seen in early 2025. Because the group reports in Mexican pesos, a stronger peso reduces the peso value of revenues earned in Puerto Rico and US airport malls, and lowers duty-free spending in Mexico where prices link to the dollar.
💲 Other KPIs
Spending on airport upgrades jumped 45.1% from a year ago, rising from 21.4% of total revenue to 26.1% by our math. That follows a 22.5% increase in the first half of the year as the operator invests heavily in modernizing Cancun's terminals and takes on capital commitments across its new Latin American concessions.
Cash on hand rose 23.6% from a year ago and climbed 72.6% from the end of June by our math. After paying out Ps. 18.0 billion in dividends over the prior year, the airport group rebuilt its cash balance alongside new debt issuances to fund the September closing of CPC Aeroportos and upcoming minority stake buyouts.
Net income belonging to outside shareholders—who own 40% of San Juan Airport and between 2.5% and 61.7% of four newly acquired Latin American airports—rose 54.1% from a year ago by our math, reversing an 18.7% drop in the first half. As a result, profit for ASUR shareholders rose 2.1%, trailing the 4.4% gain in total net income.
❓ Key Questions
What is the EBITDA margin of the new airports?
The summary release did not disclose standalone EBITDA for the US retail unit or the 20 CPC Aeroportos concessions. Knowing their profitability will show how much of the 6.4 percentage point margin drop came from acquisition mix versus cost inflation in Mexico.
Did Cancun Terminal 1 open on schedule in Q3?
Chief executive Adolfo Castro previously said reopening the expanded Terminal 1 in the third quarter of 2026 would relieve crowding in Terminal 2 and lift retail spending. Yet Mexican commercial revenue per passenger fell 10.4% this quarter.
Why did Mexico's international traffic drop 11.8%?
International passenger declines in Mexico worsened from 4.5% in the second quarter of 2025 to 11.8% this quarter. Investors need to know how much of the loss came from rival Tulum Airport versus airlines cutting US routes into Cancun.
What is the interest cost on the new bonds?
Net debt rose tenfold to Ps. 49.88 billion, and Cancun Airport recently placed 2031 and 2036 senior notes. Management has not yet detailed how much quarterly interest expense will rise once the bridge loans are refinanced.