Aris Mining (ARIS) Q3 2026 earnings review
Aris Mining nears its Marmato startup, but mining costs rise
Aris Mining, a Canadian gold producer in South America, earned more from higher gold prices while its mine output slipped. Revenue rose 14% from a year ago to $295 million, but gold production fell 5% to 69,257 ounces after a four-week plant shutdown at Marmato and explosives shortages at Segovia. Meanwhile, a stronger Colombian peso and heavier mine upkeep pushed Segovia's owner-mining cost per ounce up 34% to $1,945.
| Revenue | $295.4M +14.5% from a year ago |
|---|---|
| Gold produced | 69,257 oz -5.4% from a year ago |
| Segovia owner mining cost (AISC) | $1,945/oz +34.0% from a year ago |
| FY26 Segovia cost outlook | Unchanged $1,700–1,800/oz target range |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because rising local costs and slower mill throughput are squeezing cash generation right as expansion spending peaks. Third-quarter owner-mining costs at Segovia breached the $1,800 per ounce top of the full-year plan, and the report did not repeat the 300,000 to 350,000 ounce annual production target. The good news: commissioning is underway at the new Marmato plant ahead of a December first gold pour, and the company collected its final $42 million Wheaton construction payment.
The question now is whether the fourth-quarter startup at Marmato and the resolved explosives shortage at Segovia can lift output and reverse the cost spike. Either the new plant ramps up smoothly and spreads fixed costs over more ounces, or underground bottlenecks and a strong peso keep unit costs elevated into 2027. Fourth-quarter production and December commissioning results at Marmato will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
Marmato Expansion Enters Commissioning With Full Stream Funding
Aris Mining is building a new bulk mine and a 5,000-tonne-per-day Carbon-In-Pulp (CIP) processing plant at Marmato to lift the site's annual gold output toward 200,000 ounces. In the third quarter, the Canadian gold miner finished commissioning the new Cascabel 3 tailings storage facility and upgraded the existing flotation plant's capacity to 1,200 tonnes per day.
Construction of the new CIP plant is now "in the final stages, and commissioning is underway, with the first gold pour expected in December 2026", the company said. Reaching 75% construction spending also unlocked the final $42.0 million payment from Wheaton Precious Metals, completing the full $175.0 million stream commitment. That cash helps cover the final build phase, so the expansion remains on track to ramp up to 4,000 tonnes per day by mid-2027 and 5,000 tonnes per day by late 2027.
What to watch: the first gold pour at the Marmato CIP plant in December 2026 and daily processing rates exiting the year. Pouring gold on schedule will confirm that the company's biggest growth project is moving from cash consumption to production.
Soto Norte Permitting Clears Hurdles While Toroparu Advances
Beyond its two operating mines, the South American producer relies on the Soto Norte project in Colombia and the Toroparu project in Guyana to reach its long-term goal of 1 million ounces of annual gold output. Earlier this year, management delayed submitting the Soto Norte environmental license application past its second-quarter target.
In the third quarter, Colombian regulatory decisions "removed certain key constraints affecting Soto Norte's environmental licensing pathway", Aris Mining wrote, by revoking the La Baja permanent reserve. Its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment is now complete and "ready for formal consultation with local communities". Meanwhile, the Toroparu Prefeasibility Study is set for completion in November 2026 and shifts to contractor mining to "strengthen costs and schedule control while managing execution risk".
What to watch: the November 2026 Toroparu study release and the formal submission date for the Soto Norte license after community consultations. The Toroparu study will set the capital bill ahead of a planned early-2027 construction decision.
🐻 Bear Case
Output Drops While Full-Year Volume Targets Go Unmentioned
Aris Mining previously set a 2026 production plan of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces, counting on a second-half surge at Segovia and fourth-quarter commissioning gold at Marmato. In the third quarter, total gold production instead fell 6.0% from the prior quarter to 69,257 ounces, and the quarterly filing omitted the full-year volume target numbers.
- Segovia production: 63,445 ounces, down 1.5% from last quarter and down 3.2% from a year ago
- Segovia ore milled: 208,030 tonnes (about 2,261 tonnes per day against 3,000-tonne capacity), down 5.2% from a year ago
- Marmato production: 5,812 ounces, down 37.4% from last quarter after four weeks of plant downtime
- Fourth-quarter output needed for the prior 300,000-ounce floor: 82,694 ounces by our math, 19.4% above Q3
Contract miners at Segovia faced "temporary explosives supply constraints, which impacted their tonnes and grades", though the company noted the issue was "resolved in September under the new Colombian administration, positioning CMP production to increase toward planned ramp-up levels". Even so, nine-month production of 217,306 ounces leaves an 82,694-ounce hurdle in the fourth quarter just to reach the bottom of the prior annual plan.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gold production at Segovia and Marmato. A total below 82,694 ounces would mean the company missed the bottom of its 2026 volume plan.
Stronger Colombian Peso Pushes Segovia Costs Above Target
The company highlights that nine-month all-in sustaining costs (AISC, the total cost of producing an ounce of gold including mine upkeep) for owner-operated mining at Segovia averaged $1,729 per ounce, sitting near the bottom of its $1,700 to $1,800 full-year plan. However, third-quarter owner-mining AISC jumped 10.1% from the second quarter and 34.0% from a year ago to $1,945 per ounce, well above the annual ceiling.
Across the company, cost of sales rose 2.3 percentage points of revenue from a year ago to 46.4%, and depreciation added 1.6 percentage points to reach 6.8%, cutting the mining operating margin by 3.5 percentage points to 44.1%. A 20% rise in the Colombian peso against the US dollar over the past year added $17.1 million, or $273 per ounce, to Segovia's combined AISC of $2,174 per ounce, while underground development spending also climbed.
What to watch: fourth-quarter Segovia owner-mining AISC against the $1,813 per ounce ceiling implied by our math for the middle of the full-year plan. Another reading near $1,945 per ounce will push full-year costs past the top of the $1,800 outlook.
Heavy Expansion Spending Pushes Free Cash Flow Negative
During the first half of 2026, cash generated by the mines nearly covered all capital spending, supporting the view that Aris Mining could pay for its expansion projects out of ongoing operations. In the third quarter, however, free cash flow after growth and expansion capital dropped to negative $50.8 million, down from negative $37.8 million in the second quarter and positive $44.4 million a year ago.
Operating cash flow after sustaining capital and taxes rose slightly to $69.8 million because tax payments normalized after the second quarter's seasonal spike. Yet growth capital spending climbed to $120.6 million, including $82.0 million at Marmato (bringing nine-month Marmato growth spending to $205.3 million) and $21.1 million at Segovia. Only the $42.0 million Wheaton stream deposit kept cash balances nearly steady at $419.0 million.
What to watch: fourth-quarter growth capital spending at Marmato against the $238 million full-year budget set last quarter. Spending more than $32.7 million in Q4 will mean the Marmato build exceeded its revised annual budget.
Lower Realized Gold Prices Squeeze Partner Mining Margins
Roughly one-third of the ore milled at Segovia comes from Contract Mining Partners (CMPs), which are local miners paid based on the market price of gold. While rising gold prices lifted Aris Mining's revenue by 14.5% from a year ago, the average realized gold price fell 5.5% from the second quarter to $4,205 per ounce (after peaking at $4,861 per ounce in the first quarter).
Because the company's own processing and upkeep costs at Segovia stayed high in US dollar terms while gold prices and partner volumes slipped, the AISC sales margin on CMP ounces dropped from 46% in the second quarter to 37% in the third quarter. Combined with the four-week Marmato plant shutdown, the lower gold price cut total company revenue by 10.5% from the prior quarter to $295.4 million.
What to watch: fourth-quarter realized gold prices and Segovia CMP AISC sales margin. A gold price retreat below $4,000 per ounce would test the 35% bottom of the full-year partner margin target.
💲 Other KPIs
Inventories jumped 57.9% from $56.2 million at the end of 2025. Most of the increase came from ore stockpiles, which grew tenfold from $1.6 million at year-end to $16.3 million as the miner stockpiled ore ahead of the fourth-quarter Marmato CIP plant startup, tying up $23.1 million in working capital this quarter.
Total deferred revenue — upfront cash deposits received under precious-metal streaming agreements that Aris Mining repays by delivering future gold and silver — rose 45.3% from $200.8 million at year-end 2025. The balance grew as the producer collected $82.0 million in stream installments from Wheaton Precious Metals during the first nine months of 2026.
Net debt — face value of senior and gold-linked notes minus cash — fell 27.4% from $64.0 million a year ago and is down from $85.8 million at the end of 2025, though it ticked up slightly from $44.0 million in Q2. Cash of $419.0 million nearly matches total principal debt of $465.5 million.
Diluted weighted average shares rose 3.3% from 202.5 million a year ago, when the July 2025 warrant exercises took place, and stayed nearly unchanged from 209.1 million in the first quarter. Option exercises added 1.1 million basic shares over the first nine months of 2026.
🔮 Guidance
Unchanged. The full-year cost plan for owner-mined gold at Segovia remains $1,700 to $1,800 per ounce, with the nine-month average at $1,729 per ounce. By our math, hitting the $1,750 middle of the range requires fourth-quarter costs to drop to about $1,813 per ounce, down from $1,945 in the third quarter. A 20% stronger Colombian peso and higher underground development spending drove the recent rise.
Unchanged. The full-year margin target on gold sourced from contract mining partners stays at 35% to 40%, while the nine-month margin stands at 41%. By our math, the 37.5% middle of the range allows the fourth-quarter margin to dip as low as 27%, compared with 37% in the third quarter. The company has beaten this annual range since 2025 because high gold prices lift the spread.
❓ Key Questions
Does the 300,000-ounce full-year production target still stand?
Nine-month production of 217,306 ounces leaves 82,694 ounces for the fourth quarter to hit the bottom of the 300,000 to 350,000 ounce plan, which was not repeated in the Q3 report.
Why did Segovia's daily processing rate stay below 2,300 tonnes?
Segovia processed 208,030 tonnes in Q3 (about 2,261 tonnes per day), still below the 219,550 tonnes milled a year ago and well short of its 3,000-tonne-per-day capacity.
Will 2026 Marmato expansion spending exceed the $238 million budget?
Nine-month growth capital at Marmato reached $205.3 million after an $82.0 million third quarter, leaving just $32.7 million for the final quarter of plant construction and commissioning.
When will Aris Mining submit the Soto Norte license application?
The company finished preparing the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and cleared reserve overlaps, but has not given a new submission date after missing its second-quarter target.