Amrize (AMRZ) Q3 2026 earnings review
Amrize raises cement prices, but inflation forces another outlook cut
Amrize, the North American cement and roofing group spun out of Holcim, raised prices across its products while shipping volumes and roofing margins fell. Revenue rose 2%, almost entirely from two Texas acquisitions, as rain hurt cement shipments and calm weather slowed home roof repairs. Chief executive Jan Jenisch cut the full-year sales and operating profit plans, which by our math leaves fourth-quarter operating profit falling about 4%.
| Sales from businesses owned a year ago | +0.3% reported revenue +2.2% to $3,771M |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1,076M +0.2% from a year ago |
| FY26 revenue outlook | Cut $300M middle of the range: $12.3B (+4.1%) |
| FY26 Adjusted EBITDA outlook | Cut $150M middle of the range: $3.0B (-0.2%) |
⚖️ Verdict: 🔴 Bearish
The story got worse because fuel, freight and raw material inflation forced a second straight cut to the full-year profit plan and pushed the roofing division's margin recovery into 2027. Even with last year's cement plant outage making the comparison easy, third-quarter operating profit barely moved. One bright spot: cement prices rose from a year ago after falling in the first half, lifting profit margins in the core building-materials business.
The question now is whether higher prices and fuel surcharges can catch up with shipping and material costs in 2027, or whether inflation and high interest rates will keep squeezing margins. If price increases hold while freight costs settle, roofing profits will recover; if construction slows further, pricing power could fade. Fourth-quarter roofing margins and the initial 2027 outlook will decide it.
🐂 Bull Case
Higher Prices Lifted Profit in Cement and Stone
Amrize's biggest division, Building Materials, sells cement and crushed stone (aggregates). Cement prices had been flat or falling from a year ago for several quarters, which raised doubts about the group's pricing power. This quarter, constant-currency cement prices rose 1.8% from a year ago to $173.10 a ton, and stone prices rose 6.9% to $14.80 a ton.
The company also added energy, fuel and freight surcharges to customer bills. Those price gains and surcharges lifted the division's Adjusted EBITDA (operating profit before depreciation and one-offs) by 2.7% to $938 million, and its margin by 0.3 percentage points to 33.0%, even though rain hurt shipping volumes. The company kept its full-year pricing forecast and expects prices in this division to beat cost inflation in the fourth quarter.
What to watch: fourth-quarter cement prices per ton. Another increase from a year ago would show that April's price hikes are holding despite high interest rates.
Texas Acquisitions and Data Centers Carry Sales
"Our recent acquisitions PB Materials and Rapid Redi-Mix are exceeding our expectations and are expected to be EPS accretive this year," chief executive Jan Jenisch said. Amrize bought PB Materials in West Texas in February and Rapid Redi-Mix in Dallas-Fort Worth in July to expand its stone and concrete network.
Those two businesses added $77 million of revenue in the third quarter, accounting for almost all of the group's $81 million sales increase. Sales from businesses owned a year ago grew just 0.3%, or $10 million, because bad weather reduced cement tons sold by 4.2%. In commercial roofing, however, volumes grew as large data-center and industrial projects that broke ground a year ago reached the roofing stage.
What to watch: underlying sales growth in the fourth quarter. It will show whether data-center and infrastructure projects can offset slower home building without relying on acquisitions.
Buybacks Finished Early While Debt Rose
Amrize launched a $1 billion share buyback in May with a 12-month plan, while critics noted that payouts and deals were raising its debt. The company finished the entire $1 billion buyback on October 28, retiring about 4% of its shares in five months. By our math, it spent $553 million on buybacks in the third quarter alone.
Because the business used $551 million of free cash flow over the first nine months and spent $467 million on acquisitions, it funded the payouts by borrowing. Short-term debt rose from zero at year-end to $904 million, pushing net debt up to $5.55 billion, or 1.8 times trailing 12-month Adjusted EBITDA. Management generates most of its cash in the second half of the year.
What to watch: year-end net debt in the fourth-quarter report. A drop back toward 1.5 times profit would show seasonal cash flow paid down the short-term loans.
🐻 Bear Case
Fuel and Freight Costs Forced a Second Plan Cut
"While oil price driven cost inflation continued to affect the industry, we're proactively managing what we can control and achieved strong gains in pricing, surcharges and our ASPIRE program," Jenisch said. ASPIRE is Amrize's programme to cut spending with suppliers and freight companies, which saved $23 million this quarter, matching the $23 million raised from fuel and freight surcharges.
- Cost inflation hit to profit: $97 million in the third quarter
- Cost of making products: up 0.9 percentage points of revenue to 71.3%
- Adjusted EBITDA: up 0.2% as reported, but down 4.3% by our math without last year's $50 million cement plant outage
- Full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook: cut by $150 million at the middle of the range, to $2.95–3.05 billion
The savings and surcharges were not enough to cover the $97 million jump in freight, diesel and raw material costs. Because high interest rates and costs persisted, the company cut its full-year profit plan for a second consecutive quarter, and cut its revenue plan after raising it three months ago.
What to watch: the cost inflation figure in the fourth-quarter profit bridge. A number near the third quarter's $97 million would threaten the bottom of the new full-year plan.
Roofing Profit Recovery Slipped Into Next Year
Building Envelope makes commercial roofs and residential shingles, and three months ago management expected its price increases to outpace cost inflation by the fourth quarter. Instead, the division's Adjusted EBITDA fell 14.6% from a year ago to $182 million, and its margin dropped 4.1 percentage points to 19.6%.
Amrize phased in higher prices and freight surcharges during the summer, which lifted the division's sales by 3.6% to $929 million. However, raw material and shipping costs rose faster than those pre-quoted roofing prices could adjust. In the outlook, the company said "the magnitude of inflation has pushed the company's expectation for Building Envelope price-cost positivity into 2027".
What to watch: Building Envelope's Adjusted EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter. A smaller drop than this quarter's 4.1 percentage points would show the summer price increases are catching up.
Home Roofing Demand Cooled After a Record Quarter
Three months ago, Amrize celebrated a record quarter for residential roofing and raised its full-year volume outlook for that product from flat to high-single-digit growth. Critics warned that distributors were simply stocking their shelves ahead of price increases.
In the third quarter, shingle volumes fell because of a "lack of significant storms and sluggish existing-home sales, driving lower re-roofing demand", the company said. For the fourth quarter, Amrize now warns that residential roofing will stay soft and that seasonal inventory destocking by distributors will weigh on shingle demand, reversing the second quarter's strength.
What to watch: Building Envelope revenue growth in the fourth quarter against an easy comparison from a year ago, when sales fell 11.8%. A drop in sales would confirm severe distributor destocking.
Accounting Revisions and Risks Left Unanswered
Amrize revised its prior-year financial statements again to fix extended-warranty accounting mistakes, while leaving other standing questions open in the release.
- Prior-period revisions: third-quarter 2025 revenue was raised by $15 million and net income cut by $3 million for warranty and other misstatements, following a similar revision last quarter.
- Excluded warranty costs: the company still strips pre-acquisition warranty charges out of Adjusted EBITDA as integration costs ($4 million this quarter, $30 million year-to-date).
- Tax dispute: the release gave no update on the Canada-France transfer-pricing tax agreement for 2011–2015 disclosed in July.
What to watch: the warranty liability and tax footnotes in the third-quarter 10-Q filing. They will show whether cash warranty payouts kept rising and whether the tax bill can be estimated.
💲 Other KPIs
Free cash flow — operating cash after capital spending — fell 35.5% from a year ago in the third quarter. Over the first nine months, the company used $551 million of cash, compared with a $186 million use a year ago, because receivables grew by $1.07 billion and capital spending rose 28% to $773 million.
Total debt minus cash rose 11.3% from a year ago and increased by $274 million from the second quarter. Net debt now stands at 1.8 times trailing 12-month Adjusted EBITDA, up from 1.1 times at the end of 2025, after the group funded acquisitions, dividends and share buybacks with commercial paper.
The average number of diluted shares fell 1.5% from a year ago and 1.5% from the second quarter as the group accelerated its $1 billion repurchase programme. The lower share count lifted GAAP earnings per share growth to 4.1%, ahead of the 3.3% rise in net income.
🔮 Guidance
Cut. The building-materials group lowered its full-year sales target by $300 million at the middle of the range, to about 4.1% growth, reversing last quarter's $195 million raise. By our math, that leaves $2.86 billion for the fourth quarter, or 0.6% growth from a year ago, down from 2.2% in the third quarter as high interest rates weigh on construction volumes.
Cut. Amrize lowered its full-year operating profit target for a second straight quarter, taking $150 million off the middle of the range after a $145 million cut in the second quarter. The plan now puts full-year profit roughly flat against 2025's $3.01 billion. By our math, it leaves $747 million for the fourth quarter, a 4.1% drop from a year ago as the company laps a $36 million insurance payout.
Unchanged. The US and Swiss company still expects full-year cement prices per ton, excluding fuel surcharges, to be flat to up a few percent. Through the first nine months, constant-currency cement prices are up 0.2% from a year ago after rising 1.8% in the third quarter.
Unchanged. Management continues to plan for mid-single-digit price growth in crushed stone, excluding freight. With constant-currency stone prices up 4.7% over the first nine months and 6.9% in the third quarter, the full-year target is already in place.
Unchanged. The supplier and logistics cost-cutting programme remains on track for $80 million of savings this year. Having delivered $73 million in the first nine months, including $23 million in the third quarter, the plan leaves just $7 million of savings for the fourth quarter by our math.
Unchanged. The group still plans to spend about $900 million on plant and quarry projects this year. After spending $773 million in the first nine months, that leaves about $127 million for the fourth quarter by our math, down from $262 million in the third quarter.
Unchanged. The full-year net interest plan stays at about $340 million. With $256 million recorded in the first nine months and $89 million in the third quarter, the target leaves $84 million for the fourth quarter by our math.
Unchanged. The expected tax rate excluding one-offs stays between 23% and 25%, matching the range set in the second quarter. The GAAP tax rate in the third quarter was 21.7%.
Unchanged. Unallocated headquarters costs are still planned at about $200 million for the year. After $144 million in the first nine months and $44 million in the third quarter, the plan leaves $56 million for the fourth quarter by our math.
❓ Key Questions
Why did the finance chief change again?
Samuel Poletti is listed as finance chief on the third-quarter presentation, replacing Baris Oran, who had replaced Ian Johnston at the start of 2026. The press release did not mention the change, and three finance chiefs in one year during accounting revisions warrants an explanation.
How large is the data-center project backlog in dollars?
Management highlights multi-year demand from data centers and energy projects to offset weak residential construction, but does not publish a backlog figure. Without a dollar or tonnage number, investors cannot tell if mega-projects will outweigh high interest rates in 2027.
Are warranty cash payouts at acquired roofing businesses still rising?
Amrize revised its 2025 statements a second time for extended-warranty misstatements and excluded $30 million of integration and pre-acquisition warranty costs from nine-month Adjusted EBITDA. Investors need to know if underlying warranty claims at Duro-Last and Malarkey have stabilised.
How much will fourth-quarter distributor destocking hurt shingle volumes?
After raising its full-year residential roofing volume target to high-single digits in the second quarter, management now warns of soft re-roofing demand and fourth-quarter distributor destocking. Quantifying the volume drop would clarify how much of the second quarter's record sales was inventory building.